Kazakhstan: Tested by Transition

A partial handover of political power through an orchestrated transition takes Kazakhstan into uncharted territory. Will it be able to pursue modernization and reform, and break from its authoritarian past?

Chatham House report Updated 20 July 2023 ISBN: 978 1 78413 375 7

— A gilded imprint of the hand of the First President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, in Baiterek Tower in the centre of the capital. Photo: Mateusz Atroszko.

Annette Bohr

Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme

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Kate Mallinson

Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme

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James Nixey

Director, Russia and Eurasia Programme

Birgit Brauer

Analyst, Writer and Journalist Covering Central Asia

Nargis Kassenova

Senior Fellow, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University

Joanna Lillis

Kazakhstan-Based Journalist Reporting on Central Asia

Dossym Satpayev

Independent Political Analyst and Director, Kazakhstan Risks Assessment Group

Appendix: Facts and figures

Population: 18.4 million (Statistics Committee, 2019)

Table A1: List of Kazakhstan’s ethnic and religious groups, 2019

Group	% of population
Kazakhs	67.98
Russians	19.32
Uzbeks	3.21
Ukrainians	1.47
Uighurs	1.47
Tatars	1.10
Germans	0.97
Turks	0.61
Azerbaijanis	0.60
Koreans	0.59
Dungans	0.39
Belarusians	0.30
Tajiks	0.27
Kurds	0.25
Chechens	0.18
Poles	0.17
Bashkirs	0.09
Other ethnic groups	1.04

Source: Statistics Committee of the Ministry of the National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan (2019), ‘Численность населения Республики Казахстан по отдельным этносам на начало 2019 года’ [Population size of Republic of Kazakhstan by individual ethnic groups at beginning of 2019], http://old.stat.gov.kz/getImg?id=ESTAT306055 (accessed 29 Oct. 2019).

Table A2: Religious groups in Kazakhstan (2009 census data)

Religion	% of population
Muslim	70.20
Christian	26.32
Jewish	0.03
Buddhist	0.09
Other	0.02
Non-believers	2.82
Did not say	0.51

Source: Statistical Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan (2010), Национальный состав, вероисповедание и владения языками в Республике Казахстан [National composition, religion and language skills in the Republic of Kazakhstan], Astana, http://stat.gov.kz/api/getFile/?docId=WC16200032705 (accessed 11 Nov. 2019).

Table A3: Age structure and life expectancy in Kazakhstan

Age structure (2018)

Age group	Percentage	Male	Female	Total
0–14 years	28.46	2,675,695	2,525,881	5,201,576
15–64 years	64.15	5,706,919	6,017,015	11,723,934
65 years and over	7.39	479,389	871,600	1,350,989

Life expectancy (2017)

Total population	72.95 years
Male	68.72 years
Female	76.92 years

Sources: World Bank (all undated): ‘Life expectancy at birth, total (years) – Kazakhstan’, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=KZ&most_recent_year_desc=false; ‘Life expectancy at birth, male (years) – Kazakhstan’, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.MA.IN?locations=KZ&most_recent_year_desc=false; and ‘Life expectancy at birth, female (years) – Kazakhstan’, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.FE.IN?locations=KZ&most_recent_year_desc=false (all sources accessed 11 Nov. 2019).

Table A4: Kazakhstan’s regions

Region	Population	Major city (population)
		Nur-Sultan (formerly Astana, capital; 1,078,384)
Akmola	738,587	Kokshetau (145,161)
Aktobe	869,637	Aktobe (487,994)
Almaty	2,038,934	Taldykorgan (145,403)
		Almaty (status city; 1,854,656)
Atyrau	633,791	Atyrau (269,720)
West Kazakhstan	652,325	Oral (234,184)
Zhambyl	1,125,442	Taraz (357,791)
Karaganda	1,378,533	Karaganda (497,712)
Kostanay	872,795	Kostanay (243,031)
Kyzylorda	794,334	Kyzylorda (239,070)
Mangistau	678,199	Aktau (183,097)
Pavlodar	753,853	Pavlodar (333,989)
Turkistan	1,983,967	Turkistan (164,746)
		Shymkent (status city; 1,009,086)
East Kazakhstan	1,378,527	Oskemen (331,614)
North Kazakhstan	554,517	Petropavl (218,956)

Source: Statistics Committee of the Ministry of the National Economic of the Republic of Kazakhstan (2019), Численность населения Республики Казахстан по полу в разрезе областей, городов, районов и районных центров и поселков на начало 2019 года [The population of the Republic of Kazakhstan by gender by region, city, district and district centre and village at the beginning of 2019], Astana, http://old.stat.gov.kz/getImg?id=ESTAT305821 (accessed 11 Nov. 2019).

Figure A1: Kazakhstan’s GDP per capita, US$, 1991–2018

— Source: World Bank (undated), ‘GDP per capita (current US$) – Kazakhstan’, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=KZ&most_recent_year_desc=false (accessed 11 Nov. 2019).

Figure A2: Kazakhstan’s annual real GDP growth, %, 1991–2018

— Source: World Bank (undated), ‘GDP growth (annual %) – Kazakhstan’, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=KZ (accessed 25 Oct. 2019).

Table A5: Kazakhstan’s top trade partners by annual value, 2017

Exports	Value, $’000s	Imports	Value, $’000s
Italy	8,669,344	Russia	11,472,924
China	5,777,684	China	4,692,242
Netherlands	4,748,206	Germany	1,484,116
Russia	4,515,165	United States	1,253,451
Switzerland	3,100,689	Italy	945,266

Sources: World Bank (undated), ‘Kazakhstan Exports By Country and Region 2017’, https://wits.worldbank.org/Country Profile/en/Country/KAZ/Year/2017/TradeFlow/Export (accessed 11 Nov. 2019); World Bank (undated), ‘Kazakhstan Imports, Tariff By Country and Region 2017’, https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/KAZ/Year/2017/TradeFlow/Import (accessed 11 Nov. 2019).

Figure A3: Foreign direct investment net inflows into Kazakhstan, US$ billion

— Source: World Bank (undated), ‘Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$) – Kazakhstan’, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WD?locations=KZ&most_recent_year_desc=false (accessed 11 Nov. 2019).

Table A6: Elections in Kazakhstan since independence

Presidential elections
Candidates	Date	Share of vote, %
Nursultan Nazarbayev	1 December 1991	98.80
Nursultan Nazarbayev	10 January 1999	81.00
Serikbolsyn Abdildin		11.90
Nursultan Nazarbayev	4 December 2005	91.15
Zharmakhan Tuyakbai		6.61
Nursultan Nazarbayev	3 April 2011	95.55
Nursultan Nazarbayev	26 April 2015	97.75
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev	9 June 2019	70.96
Amirzhan Kosanov		16.23
Daniya Yespayeva		5.05

Parliamentary
Party	Date	Seats
Union of People’s Unity of Kazakhstan	7 March 1994 (annulled)	33
Trades Union Federation		11
People’s Congress of Kazakhstan		9
Socialist Party		8
Peasants’ Union		4
Lad (Harmony) Movement		4
Other parties and groups		7
Independents		59
State list		42
Total		177
Kazakhstan National Unity Party	9 December 1995–4 February 1996	11
Democratic Party		7
Communist Party		2
Socialist Party		1
National Co-operative Party of Kazakhstan		1
National Congress Party of Kazakhstan		1
Independents		44
Total		67
Fatherland (Otan)	10 and 24 October 1999	24
Communist Party of Kazakhstan		3
Agrarian Party of Kazakhstan		3
Civic Party of Kazakhstan		11
National Cooperative Party of Kazakhstan		1
Republican People’s Party of Kazakhstan		1
Government-associated		20
Business		10
Other		4
Total		77
Party	Date	Seats
OTAN	19 September and 3 October 2004	42
Ak Zhol		1
The Democratic Party of Kazakhstan		1
Asar		4
AIST bloc of the Agrarian and Civil Parties (Agrarian Industrial Union of Workers)		11
Independent		18
Total		77
People’s Democratic Party (Nur Otan)	18 August 2007	98
Candidates selected by the Assembly of the Peoples of Kazakhstan		9
Total		107
People’s Democratic Party (Nur Otan)	15 January 2012	83
Ak Zhol		8
Communist People’s Party of Kazakhstan		7
Candidates selected by the Assembly of the Peoples of Kazakhstan		9
Total		107
People’s Democratic Party (Nur Otan)	20 March 2016	84
Ak Zhol		7
Communist People’s Party of Kazakhstan		7
Candidates selected by the Assembly of the Peoples of Kazakhstan		9
Total		107

Sources: Nohlen, D., Grotz, F. and Hartmann, C. (2001), Elections in Asia: A data handbook, Volume I, Oxford: Oxford University Press; OSCE ODIHR (2006), ‘Republic of Kazakhstan Presidential Election 4 December 2005: Final Report’, 21 February 2006, https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/kazakhstan/18152?download=true (accessed 19 Nov. 2019); OSCE ODIHR (2011), ‘Republic of Kazakhstan Early Presidential Election 3 April 2011: Final Report’, 16 June 2011, https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/78714?download=true (accessed 19 Nov. 2019); OSCE ODIHR (2015), ‘Republic of Kazakhstan Early Presidential Election 26 April 2015: Final Report’, 29 July 2015, https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/kazakhstan/174811?download=true (accessed 19 Nov. 2019); OSCE ODIHR (2019), ‘Republic of Kazakhstan Early Presidential Election 9 June 2019: Final Report’, 4 October 2019, https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/kazakhstan/434459?download=true (accessed 19 Nov. 2019); Inter-Parliamentary Union (undated), ‘Kazakhstan Mazhilis (House of Representatives): Historical Archive Of Parliamentary Election Results’, http://archive.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2165_arc.htm (accessed 13 Nov. 2019); OSCE ODIHR (2000), ‘Republic of Kazakhstan Parliamentary Elections 10 and 24 October 1999: Final Report’, 20 January 2000, https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/kazakhstan/14790?download=true (accessed 19 Nov. 2019); OSCE ODIHR (2004), ‘Republic of Kazakhstan Parliamentary Elections: 19 September and 3 October 2004. OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Report’, 15 December 2004, https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/kazakhstan/38916?download=true (accessed 13 Nov. 2019); and OSCE ODIHR (2016), ‘Republic of Kazakhstan Early Parliamentary Elections: 20 March 2016. OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Final Report’, 27 June 2016, https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/kazakhstan/248781?download=true (accessed 13 Nov. 2019).

Table A7: Kazakhstan’s oil and gas production-sharing agreements

Name	Date signed	Consortium	Ownership percentage
North Caspian Project	November 1997	JSC NC KazMunayGas	16.88
		ENI SpA	16.81
		Exxon Mobil Corporation	16.81
		Royal Dutch Shell plc	16.81
		Total SA	16.81
		CNPC	8.33
		INPEX Corporation	7.56
Karachaganak	27 January 1998	British Gas (Shell)	29.25
		ENI	29.25
		Chevron	18.00
		Lukoil	13.50
		JSC NC KazMunayGas	10.00
Dunga Field	1 May 1994	Total E&P Dunga Gmbh	60.00
		Oman Oil Company Ltd	20.00
		Partex Kazakhstan Corporation	20.00

Source: PSA LLP (undated), ‘Проекты’[Projects], http://psa.kz/proekty/ (accessed 14 Nov. 2019).

Figure A4: Crude oil production in Kazakhstan and oil prices, 1991–2018

— Source: US Energy Information Administration (undated), ‘International Energy Statistics: Total Petroleum and Other Liquids Production’, https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/data/browser/?iso=KAZ#/?pa=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&c=ruvvvvvfvtvvvv1vvvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvsu20evvvvvvvvvvvfuvg&ct=0&tl_id=5-A&vs=INTL.53-1-AFG-TBPD.A&cy=2016&vo=0&v=H&end=2018&vid=1 (accessed 14 Nov. 2019).

Table A8: Prisoners of conscience in Kazakhstan, November 2019

Aset Abishev	Mukhtar Dzhakishev	Iskander Yerimbetov
Kenzhebek Abishev	Ruslan Ginatullin	Serik Zhakhin
Aron Atabek	Kayyrly Omar	Almat Zhumagulov
Maks Bokayev	Igor Sychev	Bolatkhan Zhunusov
Sanat Bukenov	Saken Tulbayev
Igor Chuprina	Yerzhan Yelshibayev

Source: Tirek Alliance (2019), ‘Актуальный список политзаключённых’ [An up-to-date list of political prisoners], http://tirek.info/dir/wpbdp_category/list01/?fbclid=IwAR1pZaiSSa_kGqf83o075lm-OJ490pe3ylblQ_NGFaklCIepp1GTU06WqKI&wpbdp_sort=field-1 (accessed 14 Nov. 2019). Please note that the list contains 20 names, but that four have been released from custody since its publication.

Kazakhstan is a member of the following international organizations:

Asian Development Bank
Asian Disaster Reduction Center
Association of Central and Eastern Europe Election Officials
Bureau International des Expositions
Central Asian Foundation for Management Development
Central Asian Regional Information and Coordination Centre
Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia
Economic Cooperation Organization
Energy Regulators Regional Association
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Global Environment Fund
Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria
Group of States against Corruption
International Association for the Promotion of Cooperation with Scientists from the New Independent States of the former Soviet Union
International Atomic Energy Agency
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
International Civil Aviation Organization
International Civil Defence Organisation
International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage
International Committee of the Red Cross
International Council of Environmental Law
International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol)
International Development Association
International Electrotechnical Commission
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
International Finance Corporation
International Fund for Agricultural Development
International Labour Organization
International Maritime Organization
International Military Sports Council
International Olympic Committee
International Organization for Migration
International Organization for Standardization
International Organization of Legal Metrology
International Renewable Energy Agency
International Science and Technology Center
International Social Security Association
International Statistical Institute
International Telecommunication Union
International Trade Centre
Inter-Parliamentary Union
Islamic Development Bank
Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS
Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
Non-Aligned Movement
Organisation for Cooperation between Railways
Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe
Organization of Islamic Cooperation
Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
United Nations
United Nations Children’s Fund
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
United Nations Development Programme
United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
United Nations Environment Programme
United Nations Human Settlement Programme
United Nations Industrial Development Organization
United Nations Population Fund
United Nations Regional Centre for Peace and Disarmament for Asia and the Pacific
Universal Postal Union
World Food Programme
World Health Organization
World Intellectual Property Organization
World Meteorological Organization
World Organization for Animal Health
World Tourism Organization
World Trade Organization
World Wildlife Fund

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Kazakhstan: Tested by Transition

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Appendix: Facts and figures

Table A1: List of Kazakhstan’s ethnic and religious groups, 2019

Table A2: Religious groups in Kazakhstan (2009 census data)

Table A3: Age structure and life expectancy in Kazakhstan

Age structure (2018)

Life expectancy (2017)

Table A4: Kazakhstan’s regions

Figure A1: Kazakhstan’s GDP per capita, US$, 1991–2018

Figure A1: Kazakhstan’s GDP per capita, US$, 1991–2018

Figure A2: Kazakhstan’s annual real GDP growth, %, 1991–2018

Figure A2: Kazakhstan’s annual real GDP growth, %, 1991–2018

Table A5: Kazakhstan’s top trade partners by annual value, 2017

Figure A3: Foreign direct investment net inflows into Kazakhstan, US$ billion

Figure A3: Foreign direct investment net inflows into Kazakhstan, US$ billion

Table A6: Elections in Kazakhstan since independence

Table A7: Kazakhstan’s oil and gas production-sharing agreements

Figure A4: Crude oil production in Kazakhstan and oil prices, 1991–2018

Figure A4: Crude oil production in Kazakhstan and oil prices, 1991–2018

Table A8: Prisoners of conscience in Kazakhstan, November 2019