There is a very small window of opportunity to determine the shape and forms of different bio-based transition pathways. Key moments at the G20 and COP30 meetings – both of which will have Brazil as president – can act as a springboard for the sustainable bioeconomy transition.
Official, multilateral conversations about the future of bioeconomies may be nascent, but they are beginning to take root in the traditional forums for decision-making. Brazil – as the incumbent head of the G20 and incoming president of COP30 – has a unique opportunity to shape these bioeconomy discussions. Senior officials in Brazil have demonstrated their clear intention to do this.
For example, in December 2023, the country launched the first Global Bioeconomy Initiative. At that time, Ivan Oliveira, undersecretary of financing for sustainable development at the Ministry of Finance, argued that, ‘the G20 is the right place to frame the discussion on bioeconomy… for relating technology, energy and other elements such as the need to take resources to where they are most needed, in contexts which the current financial model cannot reach’. In September 2024, a communique with bioeconomy principles was agreed among members states, and South Africa has announced it will continue the discussion in 2025 when it becomes president of the G20.
While these discussions will prioritize the bioeconomy in international forums, to bolster this approach, Brazil needs to define the roll of the bioeconomy when the country holds COP30. Through the climate troika – a diplomatic effort between the previous, current and future COP hosts – Brazil can support a continuous discussion about the bioeconomy at future climate COPs.
Equally, another pathway to aid collaboration on the bioeconomy internationally is through the Convention on Biological Diversity. This will be an essential lever to ensure bioeconomic activities do not drive nature degradation. In 2024, Colombia will assume the presidency. There is a significant opportunity for Colombia to work with its neighbour Brazil, as they share national boundaries in the Amazon basin and the challenges of both protecting nature and providing social economic development.
Global frontrunners in the bioeconomy need to provide credible leadership both internally and externally. In practice, this means addressing local challenges, including implementing existing policy frameworks relating to nature protection and completing their contributions to global targets, such as the Global Biodiversity Framework.
At a time of geopolitical fragmentation, there is an opportunity for emerging powers to use the bioeconomy to encourage a policy debate between the West, China and other countries in the BRICS+ community.
Effective partnerships between public bodies and large global private sector players that operate international value chains are important. Mobilizing public funding – from organizations like the Brazilian National Development Bank or Inter-American Development Bank – can help to crowd private capital into developing regions. More broadly, the concept of the bioeconomy ties together many of the most pressing issues of our time – nature, climate change and development policy – into the geopolitical arena. Its principal protagonists include emerging powers, like Brazil and India, endowed with large amounts of natural resources, in addition to traditional powers like the US, China and the EU. At a time of geopolitical fragmentation, there is an opportunity for emerging powers to use the bioeconomy to encourage a policy debate between the West, China and other countries in the BRICS+ community.
But the transition is complex – there are many policy levers to it, including land-use protection and management policies, fiscal incentives and subsidies, as well as industrial and innovation policies for processing and production of bio-based alternatives.
Identifying the likely trade-offs of the bio-based transition is critical so that authorities can manage any fallout. In order for countries to lean towards the bio-based transition to address climate and biodiversity challenges, national government will need to manage the negative socio-economic impacts with policies to ensure safety nets.
Navigating this complexity will require input and resources from a number of stakeholders in unusual alliances. From industry and academia working together to develop explorative modelling techniques to cross-government initiatives to align environmental, agricultural, business, economic and innovation departments.
A transition from fossil fuel economies to sustainable bioeconomies will not happen overnight, even if there is significant momentum behind it. Nor is it necessarily a good thing in all circumstances, unless the right guardrails and supports are put in place to avoid destruction of biodiversity or to our social fabric.
And so, a deliberate and intentional drive from nations, civil society and private sector players who have influence over the shape of a sustainable bioeconomy transition is needed to appropriately manage resource constraints, synergies and trade-offs.
