This weekend South Africa will host the G20 Leaders’ Summit, held for the first time on African soil, welcoming more than 1,000 people from 42 countries and organizations to Johannesburg. The summit will focus on the three aspirational themes of South Africa’s G20 presidency: solidarity, equality and sustainability.
With the US saying it will avoid the gathering and the global commitment to multilateralism being tested more broadly, the summit will not be a grand moment of solidarity or result in decisive action.
Yet the issues championed by South Africa, including debt relief and climate finance, are important for the world. South Africa’s commitment to multilateralism makes it a fitting host that can help to facilitate dialogue despite a lack of consensus. This is exemplified by South Africa’s ability to balance often controversial economic and political relations across the G20 and beyond.
Traditional powers are less receptive to South Africa’s agenda than previous G20 presidencies. But the summit could demonstrate the enduring need for committed multilateralism and reflect the determination of the Global South to have its voice heard.
A difficult presidency
The leaders of the two most powerful countries in the world will be notably absent in Johannesburg.
Donald Trump said that no US officials will attend the summit, saying white South Africans are ‘being killed and slaughtered’ in line with his widely discredited claims of a racial ‘genocide’ in the country. Although on Thursday, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said he was discussing the possibility of US participation with Washington. And Premier Li Qiang will represent China in place of President Xi Jinping, as he did at the 2023 G20 in New Delhi and at the BRICS summit in Brazil this year.
The presidents of Argentina, Russia and Mexico will also not attend the summit. Argentina’s President Javier Milei is a close ally of Trump and a deep critic of the climate and inclusion issues that South Africa has been promoting.
Russian President Putin could face arrest if he travelled to the ICC member state and did not attend the BRICS summit in Johannesburg in 2023. He will be represented by Maxim Oreshkin, the deputy chief of staff of the presidential office.
South Africa has played down the focus on attendance, with Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola saying ‘The G20 should send a clear message that the world can move on with or without the US.’ Yet the absences reflect a continuation of the fractious year of discussions undertaken by the G20 in the run up to the leaders’ summit.
South Africa has struggled to push through its agenda in the context of increasing global competition, nationalism and fading ambition on the environment. It has also been undermined by disruption from other G20 countries, particularly the US and Argentina, who have blocked consensus on several financial and developmental issues.
Only one of the four Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (FMCBG) meetings under South Africa’s presidency produced an agreed communique. The July meeting, which was skipped by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, reaffirmed or restated pre-existing commitments to initiatives such as the G20 Common Framework on debt relief.
Even this offered no new measures to address the urgent need to support debt restructuring. Since then, the most recent FMCBG meeting in October resulted in just a ‘Chair’s Summary’ rather than a joint declaration.
Alongside finance ministers’ meetings, South Africa has sought to preside over a highly inclusive process with a range of other meetings. The G20 has been buttressed by a Business 20 (B20), Media (M20) and a think tank 20 (T20).
While the B20 and T20 are longstanding parts of the G20, they have seemingly taken a more prominent role under the South African leadership. Yet, the extensive policy papers, recommendations and convenings have not translated into high level commitments from government leaders.
Challenges and alternatives
This lack of commitment reflects a deeper concern over how receptive traditional global powers are to the voice of emerging nations. South Africa has promoted issues that are priorities for the Global South, including continental debt restructuring and green finance.
But this focus has not aligned with the current global economic context. Many global investors and institutions, including the IMF, see emerging market bonds as a risk as they grapple with inflation, financial instability and the rise of non-bank financial institutions.
South Africa and other African governments are also increasingly pushing for domestic minerals ‘value addition’: that is, more processing of raw materials by producer countries into higher-priced products.
Yet these growing demands are out of sync with the global shift towards supply chain nationalism and ‘friendshoring’, when countries orientate their supply chain networks to focus on political allies.