Managing Hard Power in a 'Low Tension' Environment
Research paper
Published 28 June 2019
Updated 15 October 2024
ISBN: 978 1 78413 274 3
This paper focuses on Russia’s military posture in the Russian Arctic. It seeks to demystify Moscow’s military build-up in the region: it explains that if Moscow is indeed militarizing the Russian Arctic, the military build-up and the Kremlin’s intentions are, at least for now, defensive in nature.
The ‘Arctic Shamrock’ (or ‘Trefoil’) is located close to Nagurskoye on Alexandra Land Island, Franz Josef Land. At 80° north, it is the closest permanent outpost to the North Pole. It is the largest building standing that far north. Construction started in 2015, and the base became fully operational in late 2018.166 The base is manned by some 150 troops on 18-month, fully autonomous, rotations.
The main task of the base is to provide the Northern Fleet with air defence capabilities, notably via S-300 (NATO: SA-10 Grumble) air defence systems and Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft systems for short-range coverage. An electronic warfare and radar company operates at the base, notably with the P-18 Terek early-warning system. Naval facilities include K-300P Bastion-P (NATO: SSC-5) coastal defence systems armed with P-800 Oniks anti-ship cruise missiles (NATO: SS-N-26 Strobile) and 4K51 Rubezh (NATO: SSC-3 Styx) anti-ship systems.167 The base also serves as an SAR outpost.
Close to Trefoil, troops run the Nagurskoye airbase, comprising two landing strips – including a 2,500-metre runway that can accommodate fighter aircraft and refuelling tankers. This strip was completed in 2015 and operates all year round, even in winter.168 An Il-76 transport aircraft landed for the first time in April 2015.169 The Nagurskoye airbase was created with strike aviation in mind:170 with the help of Il-78 refuelling tankers to extend their operational range, an air wing of MiG-31 (NATO: Foxhound) or Su-34 (NATO: Fullback) fighter aircraft could reach the Thule airbase in Greenland171 and push onwards to North America.172 Modernized MiG-31BM could possibly be deployed to Nagurskoye in the near future.
Located at 75° north, the ‘Northern Clover’ base was built on Kotelny Island, in the New Siberian Islands archipelago on the Laptev Sea. Opened in December 2016,173 it can permanently host 250 troops, including the 99th Arctic Tactical Group, a radar unit and other support units.
Like the facilities on Franz Josef Land, Northern Clover aims to provide regional air defence. It is heavily armed, with S-300 air defence systems, Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft systems, Bastion-P coastal systems (increasingly replacing ageing Rubezh anti-ship systems)174 and anti-ship systems. These systems are officially for protection of the NSR and territorial defence.
Northern Clover is linked to the Temp airbase, where Pantsir-S1 coastal systems were deployed in 2014.175 It is likely that the Temp airfield will be used mostly for SAR and civilian emergency purposes.176 There are also plans to build a runway extension to accommodate Il-76 transport aircraft.177
Alongside SAR facilities, Rogachevo primarily serves as an air defence base for the Northern Fleet. It is the largest of the three ‘Tricolour’ bases and can host a full-size battalion. Radar installations for surveillance and early warning became operational in April 2015.
In addition to S-400 (NATO: SA-21 Growler) systems,178 facilities are equipped with a triad of S-300 air defence systems, Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft systems and Rubezh anti-ship coastal systems. This is the first time since the early 1990s that missile systems have been deployed to Novaya Zemlya.179 Air defence is strengthened with the presence of P-800 Oniks systems. Such systems create a potential interdiction bottleneck between the Barents Sea and Pechora Sea, thereby potentially limiting freedom of access and operations for foreign forces.180 Development and operations at Rogachevo are deemed of strategic importance for the Northern Fleet.181
The airfield adjacent to the base serves for resupply and logistics. It was previously announced in 2012 that a squadron of MiG-31 fighters would be deployed there.
|
Airfield |
Location |
Mission |
|---|---|---|
|
Alykel |
Norilsk, Krasnoyarsk Krai |
SAR, resupply |
|
Amderma |
Nenets Autonomous Okrug |
SAR, resupply |
|
Anadyr-Ugolny |
Chukotka Autonomous Okrug |
SAR, EW, UAV operations, long-range patrols (Tu-22M3), satellite communications |
|
Chersky |
Sakha Republic |
SAR, resupply |
|
Nadym |
Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug |
SAR, resupply |
|
Naryan-Mar |
Nenets Autonomous Okrug |
SAR, coastguard outpost |
|
Pevek |
Chukotka Autonomous Okrug |
SAR, resupply |
|
Provideniya |
Chukotka Autonomous Okrug |
SAR, resupply |
|
Sabetta |
Yamal Peninsula |
SAR, FSB centre for the protection of the Yamal LNG project |
|
Severomorsk-1 and 3 |
Murmansk Oblast |
SAR, tactical aviation (Su-25 and MiG-29), transport (Il-96)182 |
|
Sredny Island |
Severnaya Zemlya |
SAR, radar surveillance, tactical group |
|
Tiksi base |
Kola Peninsula |
SAR, air defence, tactical aviation |
|
Vorkuta |
Pechora basin, Komi Republic |
SAR, long-range patrol (Tu-22M3),183 early-warning radar station184 |
The order of battle of the Northern Fleet officially comprises 37 surface vessels,185 including the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, whose fate is still undetermined.186 Only 10 of the 13 larger vessels are currently operational. These include the flagship of the fleet, the Kirov-class nuclear-powered missile cruiser Pyotr Velikiy (Project 11442). Another Kirov-class unit, the Admiral Nakhimov, is under repair at the Sevmash shipyard in Severodvinsk. The Pyotr Velikiy will also spend some time in repair after the Nakhimov resumes active service in 2021.187 Kirov-class cruisers are heavily armed, notably with P-700 Granit (NATO: SS-N-19) anti-ship cruise missiles, and can host three helicopters.
The Slava-class guided-missile destroyer Marshal Ustinov (Project 1164) is another important projection asset of the fleet. It went back to active service in mid-2017 after five years under repair.188 It is heavily armed, with S-300F Fort systems (the sea-based variant of S-300s), 9K33 Osa-MA surface-to-air (SAM) systems and P-500 Bazalt cruise missiles, in addition to a 533-mm torpedo system and modernized radio-electronics.
Smaller vessels complement the Northern Fleet’s displacement. The Gorshkov-class frigate Admiral Gorshkov (Project 22350) entered active service in mid-2018 after at least six years of delays and failed tests. Another seven vessels of this class are planned, with only three laid down so far. For now the second unit, the Admiral Kasatanov, is scheduled to enter service in autumn 2019.189 The frigates are armed with Kalibr-NK land-attack cruise missiles and P-800 Oniks anti-ship cruise missiles, making them effective assets for interdiction operations at sea.
Three of the five existing Udaloy-class (Project 1155) anti-submarine ships are reported active. The fleet has six small Project 1142M (Grisha-class) anti-submarine ships for brown- and green-water operations. At least five amphibious landing ships supplement the fleet (the heavy landing ship Ivan Gren of Project 11711190 and several large Project 775 vessels).
The order of battle is strengthened by one active Sovremenny-class destroyer (Admiral Ushakov of Project 956) out of the four existing units, and a fleet of nine minesweepers for brown- and green-water operations.
Construction of the first Lider-class destroyer (Project 23560, nuclear-powered) started in 2018, with official completion scheduled for 2025. Eight vessels from this class will serve in the Northern and Pacific Fleets, albeit in the distant future. They will be equipped with Kalibr, Onyx and S-500 long-range anti-aircraft missile systems.191
The Northern Fleet welcomed its first ice-class ship in early 2018, when the diesel-electric icebreaker Ilya Muromets (Project 21180) arrived in Severomorsk and entered active service.192 This denotes a new role for the Northern Fleet in terms of ice-condition operations: the Ilya Muromets will likely support passage of other assets as well as assist in patrol and tugging missions. A second platform is scheduled for construction, but will not enter the Northern Fleet before the late 2020s.
In the future, the fleet is likely to operate a new class of patrol icebreakers under Project 23550.193 The first ship of the two, the Ivan Papanin, was laid down in 2017194 but is unlikely to enter service before the mid-2020s, as construction is already encountering delays.195 The project is inspired by armed icebreakers of the Norwegian Svalbard class,196 and the new ships will give the fleet an operational edge in sea denial and ISTAR197 operations (the vessels will deploy Ka-27 ASW helicopters and UAVs).
Although not part of the Northern Fleet, the Rosatom fleet of civilian icebreakers is still crucial to military access and operations.198 Russia officially has 46 icebreakers, including four nuclear-powered units.199 The bulk of the fleet is supposed to be decommissioned in the 2020s, yet construction of new vessels is severely delayed. Russia is likely to experience an ‘icebreaker gap’200 between the scheduled decommissioning of older platforms and the entry into service entry of new ones – unless the lifespans of the former are extended through considerable maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO).
Three units of the LK-60 class (Project 22220) nuclear-powered icebreakers are under construction201 and will replace the ageing Arktika class. The three units should be rolled out starting in 2020 at the earliest, due to turbine manufacturing delays.202 Rosatom is pushing for the construction of another two LK-60-class units for the NSR.203
A new class of nuclear icebreaker, the LK-120 Lider-class (Project 10510), was unveiled in June 2018.204 Units will be built at the Zvezda shipyard near Vladivostok, but will not be commissioned before the 2030s at least – if they are ever built, as the project is already experiencing funding issues.205 The LK-120 was at the centre of domestic political contention around lobbying and vested interests after United Shipbuilding Corporation (OSK) denounced a ‘political’ contract aimed at subsidizing Zvezda.206
The decommissioned Sovietskiy Soyuz nuclear-powered icebreaker is due to be converted to an Arctic military command post,207 although plans remain uncertain.
Most submarine units of the Northern Fleet are based in Gadzhiyevo, on Yagelnaya Bay on the Kola Peninsula. The order of battle of the Northern Fleet comprises 41 submarines,208 and will follow the modernization and procurement cycles of nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarines (SSBNs), nuclear-powered guided-missile submarines (SSGNs) and nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) under the state armament programme for 2027. Legacy diesel-electric submarines will be modernized. In terms of operations, the fleet of more than 30 nuclear-powered submarines can nevertheless deploy only some seven to eight units at sea, making it relatively fragile.209
Furthermore, maintaining and modernizing the nuclear deterrent is not Arctic-related, but an absolute military priority across all fleets. Russia’s modernization of the fleet of submarines focuses on increasing their operational radius as well as on under-ice training and operations,210 after below-ice patrols resumed in 2009. The recent increase in submarine activity and patrols in the region, which have apparently reached Cold War levels,211 shows that Russia projects force to the North Atlantic and through the GIUK gap.212
The Northern Fleet has six Delta-IV SSBNs (Project 667 BDRM, NATO: Delta II), with only four to five currently operational. Modernization plans include the introduction of a new sonar system and the new R-29RMU Sineva (NATO: SS-N-23 Skiff) submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). The latter is a third-generation missile system which entered service in 2007 and can carry four to 10 nuclear warheads over 8,000 km.213 Each vessel can carry up to 16 missiles. The fleet of SSBNs is currently undergoing MRO but should be decommissioned after the 2030s.
Borei II-class (Project 955A, NATO: Dolgorukiy-class) SSBNs will replace the ageing fleet of Delta-IVs. The first unit of this class serving in the Northern Fleet, the Yuri Dolgorukiy, was deployed in early 2013. Five other submarines are in various stages of development at the Sevmash yard in Severodvinsk, but are experiencing delays with diesel generators.214 Several units should be delivered to the Northern Fleet by the mid-2020s. The Borei II class will be equipped with up to 16 Bulava SLBMs, each fitted with up to six nuclear warheads.215
The Yasen-class multi-purpose SSGN (Project 885-M) serves as an attack submarine with guided-missile systems. The first unit, the Severodvinsk, entered service in 2014; the second vessel, the Kazan, is still undergoing sea trials.216 Six extra submarines in this class are in various stages of construction, but nowhere near completion. They are harboured in Zapadnaya Litsa on the Kola Peninsula. The Yasen-class SSGN is supposed to replace the ageing Akula-class and Oscar-class submarines. Yasen are armed with Kalibr missile systems, still being trialled,217 as well as P-800 Oniks anti-ship cruise missiles. Development of the Yasen programme, however, has been slowed down for the benefit of Borei-class SSBNs, leading to crippling delays.218
The Akula-class SSBN Dmitri Donskoy (Project 941UM, NATO: Typhoon) was recently modernized to conduct tests for Bulava missiles. The three legacy Antey-class (Project 949A, NATO: Oscar 2-class) and the six Shchuka-B-class (Project 971, NATO: Akula III) SSGNs are also undergoing MRO to equip them with Kalibr and Oniks systems.
