A partial handover of political power through an orchestrated transition takes Kazakhstan into uncharted territory. Will it be able to pursue modernization and reform, and break from its authoritarian past?
9. Recommendations
For Western governments and institutions
- Western countries and institutions need to be more involved in Kazakhstan than they have been in recent times. They should not be fooled by Kazakhstan’s past stability. Systemic vulnerabilities are growing. Economic challenges and the transition process have exposed and intensified such vulnerabilities. Powers seeking to maintain their geopolitical footholds, such as Russia, and rising powers, such as China, have proven themselves more than willing and able to fill geopolitical vacuums as these appear. The more the West retreats from engagement with Kazakhstan, the more others will fill the gap – and potentially clash. Kazakhstan needs to rise among the West’s priorities now.
- Constraints on his power notwithstanding, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev should be cultivated as a respected interlocutor. As one of the architects of Kazakhstan’s successful multi-vector foreign policy, the new president should be welcomed in Western capitals, which constitute one such vector. Kazakhstan should not, however, benefit from unqualified Western support. Subtle pressure aimed at addressing deficiencies in domestic governance will help foster a culture of change in Kazakhstan. Western interlocutors should impress upon the government that reform is in its own interests to prevent greater upheavals later. This reform needs to be carefully managed, but not micromanaged to the extent that it excludes independent voices.
- Western policymakers should proactively counteract the Kremlin’s propaganda machine, which seeks to discredit Western values in the eyes of Russian-speaking TV viewers in Kazakhstan. This means undertaking a more targeted, creative and diversified strategy of public information, including opening opportunities for Western news and entertainment.
- Recognizing the ongoing changes in global governance, Western governments and institutions should frame their policies towards Kazakhstan in such a way that there are incentives and engagement formats/arrangements for Kazakhstan to value a genuine partnership with the West. The UK and other European countries should enhance their diplomatic presences in Kazakhstan with foreign ministry officials who are less focused on narrow economic engagement and more on better governance. In addition to commerce, Western officials should offer the Kazakhstani leadership assistance with the country’s energy transition, for example via the EU’s connectivity initiative.
For the government of Kazakhstan
- Kazakhstan’s authorities need to introduce more transparent and inclusive governance to reduce the disconnection between the population and the ruling elite, respond better to the needs of citizens, and ultimately restore faith in government.
- The government needs to give more clarity over its intentions for the political transition and the disbursement of power (especially considering the decree published on 21 October 2019 giving former president Nursultan Nazarbayev extra powers over ministerial and security appointments). The abiding influence of the ‘First President’ as the official ‘Leader of the Nation’ (Elbasy), as the head of the ruling Nur Otan party, and particularly as the chair of the Security Council creates ambiguity, diluting the ability of the new president to spearhead reforms.
- President Tokayev should create conditions that would foster a more open political environment. The introduction of parliamentary checks and balances instead of a rubber-stamp legislature would yield significant benefits for the robustness of political institutions and governance. Introducing elections for regional governors and the mayors of large cities would also boost accountability.
- To deliver the more responsive state that he has promised Kazakhstan’s citizens, President Tokayev needs to ensure that his National Council of Public Trust becomes not only a genuine platform for dialogue but also an engine of reform by rapidly enacting some of its proposals. The authorities need to make the platform more inclusive by encouraging the attendance of constructive civil society groups or actors that have hitherto been excluded or have declined to join.
- The government should halt detentions of peaceful protesters and should amend legislation governing the right to free assembly, replacing the requirement to obtain permission for public gatherings with a requirement to inform local authorities of such events. The leadership should also halt prosecutions of dissenters for freely expressing their opinions, and should establish genuine dialogue with the public. The cases of citizens deemed ‘political prisoners’ should be reviewed, and the judiciary should not be abused for political ends.
- The government needs to take credible action to strengthen the rule of law, through comprehensive reform of the judicial and criminal justice systems. Such reform needs to eradicate practices rooted in the Soviet system, and foster instead an ‘innocent until proven guilty’ mentality to deliver on President Tokayev’s promise of delivering justice for all.
- The government needs to take meaningful action to combat corruption, not only by following through with high-profile trials but by establishing genuine zero-tolerance policies at all levels of the public sector, the civil service, the criminal justice system and the judiciary. Reform should be modelled on international best practice for transition economies, in particular on Georgia as the most relevant post-Soviet example.
- A wide programme of financial and commercial reforms is vital if Kazakhstan is to be a major economic player. These should include, but not be limited to: reform of state-owned enterprises through more effective regulation and management, and orderly divestment of their public-sector stakes; policy support for SME development, especially in combating predatory practices of corporate raiding; transparency and reform of the financial sector to root out conflicts of interest; and more consistent and supportive policies for smaller foreign investors and minority shareholders.
- In addition to the planned creation of an international centre for trade and economic cooperation on the Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan border, Kazakhstan would benefit from adopting measures to boost border efficiency by tackling informal payments and other non-tariff barriers. Given the limited size of its domestic market, Kazakhstan should seek to coordinate its industrialization strategy with Uzbekistan in order to increase complementarities, rather than compete with its neighbour by diversifying into the same activities, such as the manufacture of automobiles and agricultural and electronic equipment.
- The leadership should continue to pursue the informal or ‘soft’ regionalism advocated by a group of Kazakhstan’s leading political analysts. A focus on consensus-seeking and continuous consultation, rather than on integration and the creation of formal structures, would allow Kazakhstan and the other Central Asian states to avert potential Russian efforts to hijack or thwart intra-regional cooperation.
- The dominance of various forms of religious and tribal group identity is often a reaction to the socio-economic environment. Thus, the government should strive to create conditions that will ensure the emergence of a stronger middle class and develop a corresponding civic identity. Improving the quality of Kazakhstani education (secular and religious), and a better appreciation of Kazakhstan’s culture, will reduce the risk of archaic or aggressive forms of identity becoming popularized.
- More of an effort needs to be made to reduce the ability of external players to shape public opinion and manipulate information channels. This must be done by supporting and increasing the competitiveness of independent media, both traditional and digital, particularly Kazakh-language media. The undue influence of foreign media, at times purveying fake news, creates risks for the government in terms of its own ability to foster a civic identity and encourages divisions in society.
- The government should live up to its international commitments on the granting of asylum to refugees, and ensure Kazakhstani citizens fleeing persecution – particularly from China – are not subject to forcible return.
- The government should recognize the growing link between domestic public opinion and its foreign policy, develop better channels of communication to explain international policy, and provide more transparency over its plans – such as, for example, accepting BRI money – in order to foster greater public trust in its actions.