Iran: Uneasy Stability

Yet again, Iran appears to be in a strong position in the nuclear stand-off, with the international community labouring to agree a response. In the next couple of months, the United States and allies will present a draft Security Council resolution imposing additional sanctions. The international debate, including on the currently dim prospects for renewed nuclear talks, will take place against the background of uncertain internal events in Iran. The current system is likely to stay put for the next few years at least, but it is fragile and there are other scenarios.