2010s: Clinton a shoo-in? It's not that easy

America is changing and this complicates predictions for the 2016 presidential election

The World Today Updated 4 January 2021 Published 12 June 2015 3 minute READ

Aaron David Miller

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Anyone who thinks they can predict the outcome of the next US presidential election ought to take a deep breath and lie down until the feeling passes. Right now there is too much uncertainty, too many Republican candidates declared and undeclared, and far too much time for all kinds of surprises. Still, there may well be some useful things that can be said about elements that might shape the political landscape and the race for president in 2016.

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