Lula’s response to Maduro’s capture could cost him and Brazil dearly

To win a fourth term later this year, Brazil’s leader must show he can condemn Venezuelan authoritarianism while resisting America’s push for Latin-American dominance, writes Feliciano de Sá Guimarães.

The World Today

Published 16 March 2026 — 5 minute READ

Image — Nicolás Maduro, the captured Venezuelan president, meets Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at a summit of South American presidents in 2023. Photo: Mateus Bonomi/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

Feliciano de Sá Guimarães

Associate Professor of International Relations, University of São Paulo

The shock following the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by US special forces in January was felt by many leaders across Latin America, not least Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The president of Brazil now finds himself in a delicate position: how to resist Washington’s renewed push for hemispherical dominance while absorbing the domestic political cost of his increasingly unpopular Venezuela policy. 

In the balance hangs not just a record fourth term for Lula following the general election due in October, but the trade policy on which the country’s economy depends and the ability of US President Donald Trump to assert control over Latin America. For years under Lula, Brazil demonstrated diplomatic ambiguity towards the rule of Hugo Chavez and his successor Maduro, neither explicitly defending them nor denouncing their human right violations. 

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