Chokepoints and Vulnerabilities in Global Food Trade

Policymakers must take action immediately to mitigate the risk of severe disruption at certain ports, maritime straits, and inland transport routes, which could have devastating knock-on effects for global food security.

Chatham House report Updated 18 May 2023 ISBN: 978 1 78413 230 9

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Pedro Miguel locks along the Panama Canal. Photo: Gonzalo Azumendi via Getty Images.

Rob Bailey

Former Director, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme

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Laura Wellesley

Senior Research Fellow, Environment and Society Centre

Annex 2: Examples of Chokepoint Disruption

Below we provide examples of disruptions and transit delays that have occurred in major food trade chokepoints since 2002. These examples were used to inform Table 2 in Section 3.4, which indicates the relative risk of disruption or passage restriction at each of the 14 chokepoints featured in this report.

The list of disruptions is far from comprehensive; instead, it is intended to be an illustrative overview of the heterogeneity and frequency of small- or medium-scale disruptions at key trade chokepoints over a period of 15 years. Our analysis classifies chokepoint hazards into three categories – weather and climate risk; security and conflict risk; and political and institutional risk – and further divides these into subcategories, such as ‘haze and fog’, ‘trade and transit controls’ etc. (see Table 10). The illustrative list of disruptions (Table 11) assigns each historical example of disruption to one of these 11 subcategories.

We identified and compiled examples of disruption through a desk-based review of news reports and open-source literature from industry, academia and civil society; in the absence of an existing framework for the reporting of chokepoint disruptions, there was limited potential for a more methodical approach. We believe that a robust, systematic approach to documenting chokepoint disruptions and quantifying their impacts on food trade is urgently needed to support the effective assessment and management of chokepoint risk.

A maximum of three incidents are noted for each hazard category. Key search terms were in English; foreign-language material was not included. Examples of weather- and climate-induced disruptions and of politically and institutionally induced disruptions are limited to those with a reported impact on freight operations. Examples of conflict- and security-related incidents, on the other hand, include attempted attacks and events that had no reported impact on traffic. The authors understand these incidents to be qualitatively distinct from those relating to weather and political effects. Terrorist activity, breakouts of armed conflict and state-led attacks on vessels are considerably less likely to affect chokepoint transit in the short term, but have broader and longer-lasting implications for food trade and prices (e.g. as a deterrent to commercial or humanitarian shipments, or as a source of upward pressure on transport costs and food prices if war insurance premiums are raised).

Some further general caveats and specific points merit explanation:

Scant and variable data on chokepoint disruptions limit the scope for a comprehensive review of events, both small- and large-scale. The majority of available information is anecdotal in nature, often reported by local news services or industry organizations and generally lacking much specific detail. The overview here should therefore be understood as indicative of the relative frequency of disturbances at each of the 14 chokepoints, and illustrative only of events significant enough to raise concern among mainstream media, agricultural traders or the transport industry.
The severity of disruptions noted varies considerably, both in terms of the scale of damage/duration of transit disruption and in terms of the longer-lasting impact. Without an in-depth assessment of the first- and second-order impacts of these incidents, it is not possible to gather a full picture of the risk level at each chokepoint. By differentiating between the nature of disruptive hazards, we can nevertheless get an idea of the differing risk profiles across the 14 chokepoints.
If chokepoint risk is to be fully incorporated into risk assessment and management frameworks within the field of food security and beyond, a more systematic and robust approach is needed to compile available information on past disruptions. At national level, a coordinated process involving port and throughput data analysis, industry engagement and information-gathering among infrastructure operators would likely yield considerably more detailed and complete accounts of incidents affecting trade.

Table 10: Hazard categories

Hazard category	Hazard subcategory	Hazard code
Weather and climate risk	Temperature extremes	W-T
	Flood and drought	W-F/D
	Storms	W-S
	Haze and fog	W-H/F
Security and conflict risk	Conflict	S-C
	Terrorist attack	S-T
	Piracy*	–
	Cyberattack	S-C/A
Political and institutional risk	Trade and transit controls	P-T
	Disrepair	P-D
	Unforced delays	P-U

* Owing to the often high number of attempted or successful pirate attacks – small- or large-scale – individual incidents are not included in Table 11. Instead we note below those maritime chokepoints where many instances of piracy have been reported over the period 2002–17.

Piracy is a pervasive threat to trade through the Strait of Bab al-Mandab, the Strait of Malacca and, to a lesser extent, the Strait of Hormuz; countless instances of attempted and successful pirate attacks have been reported at each chokepoint over the period 2002–17. Details of the frequency and nature of these incidents are provided by the International Maritime Bureau (IMB)’s Piracy Reporting Centre.349 The UN Office on Drugs and Crime also provides analysis of the incidence of piracy.350

Table 11: Examples of chokepoint disruptions between 2002 and 2017

Chokepoint	Year of incident	Hazard code	Brief description	Source
Panama Canal	2010	W-F/D	Flooding prompts temporary closure of canal.	CNN [1]
	2015	W-F/D	Drought lowers water levels, and restrictions on transit are introduced.	TIME [2]
	2015	W-H/F	Periods of fog delay transit and contribute to vessel backlog.	Safety4Sea [3]
	2016	W-F/D	El Niño-induced drought sees water levels drop and prompts draught restrictions through canal.	IHS Fairplay [4]
	2017	P-D	‘Unforeseen’ repair work results in three-day closure of canal’s east lane.	Protection Vessels International [5]
Dover Strait	2004	P-U	Fishermen blockade part of English Channel in protest over proposed fishing regulations.	BBC News [6]
	2008	P-U	Fishermen block key shipping lane in English Channel in protest over fuel prices.	Reuters [7]
	2015	P-U	Attempted crossings by migrants in Calais disrupt ferry and Eurotunnel traffic, causing a tailback of over 3,000 trucks along the major road approaching the Port of Dover.	Freight Trade Association [8]
	2016	W-S	Vessels crossing English Channel are delayed by high winds.	Press Association [9]
Turkish Straits	2013	W-S	Poor visibility during snowstorm prompts closure of Bosphorus Strait.	Reuters [10]
	2014	W-H/F	Heavy fog causes Bosphorus Strait and Dardanelles to close.	Maritime Connector [11]
	2015	W-S	Snowstorm causes closure of Bosphorus Strait.	Platts [12]
	2016	S-C	Attempted coup in Turkey halts transit of grain shipments through Bosphorus Strait.	Reuters [13]
	2017	W-S	Heavy snow halts shipping through Turkish Straits.	Reuters Africa [14]
	2017	W-H/F	Bosphorus Strait is closed due to poor visibility.	Hellenic Shipping News [15]
Suez Canal	2010	W-H/F	Heavy fog causes delay to transit.	Egypt Independent [16]
	2010	W-S	Severe storms disrupt shipping through canal.	US NOAA [17]
	2013	S-T	An attack is attempted on a container ship.	AFP [18]
	2015	W-S	Canal traffic halted owing to strong winds.	Al Arabiya [19]
	2015	S-T	Multiple bomb attacks attempted by Muslim Brotherhood.	World Maritime News [20]
	2015	W-S	Sandstorm prompts closure of canal.	Israel National News [21]
Strait of Bab al-Mandab	2015	S-C	All major ports in Yemen closed due to Saudi airstrikes.	World Maritime News [22]
	2016	S-T	Anti-shipping missiles are fired on UAE ship by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.	Washington Institute [23]
	2017	S-C	Multiple attacks on vessels transiting the strait.	Washington Institute [24]
Strait of Hormuz	2015	S-C	Iranian patrol boats fire shots at a cargo ship before boarding and seizing it.	Reuters [25]
Strait of Malacca	2015	W-H/F	Delays to traffic occur owing to poor visibility resulting from haze.	Al Jazeera [26]
US inland waterways and rail network	2005	W-S	Grain operations along Lower Mississippi disrupted for weeks owing to damage from Hurricane Katrina.	Envision Freight [27]
	2008	P-U	Congestion on railways and competition for capacity cause backlog of grain shipments in storage facilities.	CBS News [28]
	2010	W-S	Rail services severely interrupted owing to heavy snowstorm.	US NOAA [29]
	2011	W-T	High temperatures cause railway tracks to buckle, creating ‘sun kinks’ and resulting in derailments.	Scientific American [30]
	2012	W-S	Grain operations at mouth of Mississippi River temporarily shut down owing to high winds and rain brought by Hurricane Isaac.	Reuters [31]
	2012	W-T	Heatwave results in ‘sun kinks’ on railways, causing derailments and delays.	Scientific American [32]
	2012–13	W-F/D	Drought reduces water levels along Mississippi, severely restricting barge traffic.	National Geographic [33]
	2013	W-F/D	Barge traffic on Mississippi is subject to a temporary halt and prolonged delays due to flooding.	Reuters [34]
	2014	P-U	Rail delays hinder grain shipments and cause backlog in storage facilities.	Wall Street Journal [35]
	2016	W-F/D	Traffic on Mississippi is halted owing to flooding.	Reuters [36]
	2016	P-D	Lock repairs cause 14-week closure of Upper Mississippi waterway.	DTN [37]
US Gulf Coast ports	2005	W-S	Damage to ports in wake of Hurricane Katrina disrupts grain operations for several weeks.	Envision Freight [38]
	2005	W-S	Operations at major ports are severely limited for several months owing to damage from Hurricane Rita.	American Association of Port Authorities [39]
	2011	W-H/F	Thick fog brings shipping to a standstill.	ICIS News [40]
	2012	W-S	Hurricane Isaac prompts closure of major ports.	Forbes [41]
	2015	W-H/F	Dense fog interrupts shipping for several days.	World Maritime News [42]
	2015	W-H/F	Traffic in key shipping lane is halted owing to fog.	World Maritime News [43]
Brazil’s inland roads	2008	W-F/D	Flooding and mudslides cause major road closures.	US NOAA [44]
	2011	W-F/D	Flooding and landslides destroy major roads.	US NOAA [45]
	2013	P-D	Poor quality of roads causes major delays to shipment of soybean harvest to port.	BBC News [46]
	2015	P-U	Truckers blockade grain shipments along major roads in protest against high diesel prices.	Reuters [47]
	2015	P-U	Truckers strike for second time in a year over high diesel prices, blockading key transport routes.	Farm Futures [48]
	2017	W-F/D	3,000 trucks carrying soybean shipments are stranded on road following heavy rainfall.	Reuters [49]
	2017	P-U	Protesters blockade major roads linking Mato Grosso to southern ports.	Reuters [50]
Brazil’s southern ports	2005	W-S	Strong winds cause Santa Catarina port to close.	IHS Fairplay [51]
	2008	W-F/D	Extreme rainfall and landslides close port of Paranaguá.	FBDS/Lloyd’s [52]
	2010	P-U	Lack of capacity at Santos port causes major backlogs along roads.	BBC News [53]
	2010	P-T	Port of Paranaguá ordered to close by environmental inspectors.	Reuters [54]
	2013	W-F/D	Heavy rainfall prevents loading of soybean shipments onto ships, causing backlog of vessels waiting for several weeks to dock.	Wharton Business School [55]
	2013	P-U	Lack of capacity at major port delays shipments.	Neptune Shipping Agency [56]
	2013	P-D	Fire at Santos destroys a number of port terminals and disrupts operations.	Independent [57]
	2014	W-H/F	Fog causes Santos port to close for 32 hours.	Port Finance International [58]
	2015	W-S	Powerful waves prompt major port to close its operations.	JOC [59]
	2015	P-D	Fire at Santos port prevents access for trucks.	Reuters [60]
	2016	P-D	Fire damages infrastructure and blocks access to Santos port.	Reuters [61]
	2016	P-U	Dockworker strikes disrupt operations at Santos port.	LinkedIn [62]
	2016	W-S	Rough seas cause Santos port to close.	JOC [63]
	2016	W-F/D	Flooding closes Santos port.	JOC [64]
	2016	W-H/F	Dense fog delays grain-handling operations at Santos port.	JOC [65]
Black Sea rail network	2009	W-F/D	Flooding causes serious damage and delays to rail infrastructure and operations in Ukraine and Romania.	Railway Pro [66]
	2011	P-U	Rail shipments of grain are temporarily suspended owing to backlogs at port.	Agrimoney [67]
	2012	W-F/D	Grain rail shipments en route to Russian port of Novorossiysk are halted by flooding.	Reuters [68]
Chokepoint	Year of incident	Hazard code	Brief description	Source
	2014	W-S	Heavy snowfall causes delays to rail operations in Romania.	Sky News [69]
	2014	P-T	Russia limits grain rail loadings and tightens quality controls, interrupting wheat exports.	Reuters [70]
	2014	S-C	Armed conflict brings frequent disruptions to Ukraine’s railways.	WIIW [71]
	2015	S-C	Armed conflict severely damages Ukraine’s railways.	TASS [72]
	2016	S-C/A	Politically motivated cyberattacks are waged against a Ukraine railway operator.	Info Security [73]
	2016	W-S	Heavy snowfall disrupts rail movements across Ukraine.	Xinhua [74]
	2016	P-U	Bumper harvest exceeds carrying capacity of Ukraine’s railways, causing major backlogs and delays.	Bloomberg [75]
	2017	S-C	Humanitarian operations are disrupted as railways are blockaded.	ReliefWeb [76]
Black Sea ports	2008	P-U	500 port workers strike for 12 days at port of Constanta in Romania.	Eurofound [77]
	2010–11	P-T	Russia bans grain exports for 11 months.	Financial Times [78]
	2010	P-T	A de facto ban interrupts grain exports from Ukraine’s primary ports.	Port Strategy [79]
	2011	P-U	Russia restricts rail shipments of grain into Novorossiysk port owing to export backlog in which silos reach full capacity.	Agrimoney [80]
	2011	W-H/F	Dense fog closes Constanta port in Romania.	Nine O’Clock [81]
	2011	W-S	Stormy weather slows operations in Russian port of Novorossiysk and contributes to backlog along railways leading to port.	Financial Times [82]
	2012	W-T	Freezing temperatures and strong winds result in delays of two days for vessels entering key ports in Russia and Ukraine.	World Maritime News [83]
	2012	W-F/D	Heavy rain floods port of Novorossiysk and temporarily halts shipping	US NOAA [84]
	2014	P-T	Ukraine closes its Crimean ports to international shipping amid crisis with Russia.	Seatrade Maritime News [85]
	2014	S-C	Ukraine loses 22 per cent of its port capacity as a result of annexation of Crimea by Russia.	Lloyd’s List Maritime Intelligence [86]
	2015	P-U	Russia tightens quality control checks and delays issuance of documents at key ports.	Reuters [87]
	2016	W-S	Primary ports in Romania and Bulgaria are forced to close owing to heavy snowfall and strong winds.	Reuters [88]
	2016	W-S	Strong winds halt operations at port of Constanta in Romania for several days.	Independent Balkan News Agency [89]
	2017	W-T	Freezing temperatures, ice and gales interrupt vessel movements in major ports in Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria.	Bloomberg [90]

Notes

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349 IMB Piracy Reporting Centre, https://www.icc-ccs.org/piracy-reporting-centre.

350 UNODC Global Maritime Crime Programme, https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/piracy/index.html?ref=menuside.

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