This research paper has traced the evolution of relations between North Korea and Russia since the latter’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. While these ties were initially transactional in nature, subsequent actions taken by both North Korea and Russia have created a concerning longer-term relationship that is both strategic and, to a lesser extent, ideological. The rapid development of relations from a simple cash-for-weapons exchange into a formal treaty on comprehensive strategic cooperation should serve as a wake-up call for the US and its partners in northeast Asia, who must now prepare for where this dangerous partnership between Kim and Putin might go next.
The future trajectory of North Korea–Russia relations will likely depend on two main factors. The first of these factors pertains to the Ukraine war, and whether Russia decides in the short to medium term to develop munitions domestically, instead of relying on imports from North Korea. The second – and potentially more significant – factor is the response from China. North Korea’s increasingly active involvement in the Ukraine war is likely to have caused some unease in China, both regarding the rapprochement between Kim Jong Un and Putin and the enhanced bilateral and trilateral cooperation between the US, Japan and South Korea in response to the former. Yet at the same time, China, North Korea and Russia share a common objective in opposing the US and the current US-led international order.
Even if current North Korea–Russia–China relations are more accurately seen as three sets of separate bilateral ties, the prospect of increasingly robust and entrenched coordination between these states cannot – and should not – be discounted. With North Korea now a nuclear-armed state in all but name, the future emergence of a ‘strategic triangle’ between Russia, China and a North Korea with increasingly robust nuclear capabilities must be taken seriously.
