A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine would have significant implications for European and Ukrainian security. Notably, Moscow’s record of manipulating negotiations and agreements to strengthen its position demonstrates the risks associated with such an outcome.
A ceasefire that is rushed or poorly defined could provide Russian forces with an opportunity to regroup and rearm, while enabling the Kremlin to continue exerting pressure through other means – including cyberattacks, sabotage and election interference. This paper outlines how Ukraine and its partners can best mitigate risks associated with a ceasefire and strengthen long-term European security.
