Head of Chatham House’s Ukraine Forum Orysia Lutsevych gave oral evidence to the UK Parliament Defence Committee on 9 June, during a one-off session – discussing the outlook for the war in Ukraine and the possibility of a ceasefire. Her evidence follows the publication of the new Chatham House report, How a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire could imperil Ukrainian and European security.
During her evidence, Orysia discussed the factors that have been contributing to Ukraine’s recent success on the battlefield in the war with Russia, including defence industry innovation, unity of purpose among Ukrainians, and increasing European support amid US withdrawal.
Orysia Lutsevych speaking at Parliament on 9 June.
She also described Ukraine’s challenges: a population exhausted by constant Russian bombardment; internal displacement; and debate about conscription and remuneration.
Orysia also described growing support inside Ukraine for a ceasefire and the conditions that Ukrainians would accept – resting on credible security guarantees.
Addressing the current situation, Orysia said:
‘I would say the support inside Ukraine for a ceasefire…is growing compared to the start of the war. Ukrainians would accept a ceasefire along the current front line… under the condition of the presence of the multinational force that will jointly with Ukraine…deter the next Russian invasion. That support is strong…but when you start subtracting that multinational force [from an agreement]…of course support for the ceasefire decreases.
‘I think the main goal of Ukraine is to ensure the next generation of Ukrainians are not fighting against Russia again. But we still see in public opinion polling a strong commitment to endure…for as long as it takes.’
Orysia also called on the UK government to increase its production and supply of long range missiles and air defence interceptors to help Ukraine defend itself against Russian attacks on its cities and critical infrastructure.