As global power balances shift, China’s rise has emerged as one of the defining geopolitical questions of the 21st century. Beijing’s expanding diplomatic reach, rapid military modernisation, technological ambitions and growing assertiveness, from the South China Sea to the Taiwan Strait, have fuelled concerns that China poses a fundamental challenge to the international order.
For critics, the threat lies not only in China’s material power but in its efforts to reshape global rules and norms, whether through economic leverage, political influence abroad, or the promotion of alternative governance models that challenge liberal institutions.
Others caution that portraying China primarily as a threat oversimplifies a more complex reality. They highlight China’s deep integration into the global economy, its role in addressing transnational challenges such as climate change, and the risks of self‑fulfilling instability driven by rivalry rather than cooperation. From this perspective, China’s behaviour reflects the dynamics of great power competition, not an inevitable path to conflict. This debate examines the nature of the challenge China presents, militarily, economically, technologically, or ideologically.
The motion asks: Does China represent the primary threat to global stability over the next decade, or one among several risks shaping a fragmented international system?
This event is being held under the Chatham House Rule. Our experts develop their arguments and recommendations through evidence-based research, public and private events, and discussions with practitioners and policymakers.
We do not take institutional positions on policy. We owe no allegiance to any government or political body. While we encourage our experts and contributors to put forward views and advice, these do not constitute the institute’s formal positions.
