Looking ahead to the 2024 US Presidential Election

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

…see all of you here today, I don’t know what makes me more nervous, seeing all of you, or thinking about that fact that we are now 33 days away from the very most consequential election, I would argue, in the history of the United States of America, and probably one of the very most consequential elections in the history of the world, and, certainly, I would argue, the most consequential election in a year of elections. It’s been an extraordinary year, what is it? One billion, am I right on that? One billion people have gone to the polls?

Justin Webb

Yeah, something like that, yeah.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

And I think we’ve all been, sort of, following that, there’s a very interesting story to tell, but at some level, for better or for worse, for just a very real fact of life, we’re waiting to see what happens on November 5th, and we know that we might not know on November 5th.

I’m Leslie Vinjamuri. I direct the US and Americas Programme, here at Chatham House. It is a – such a privilege and honour to be hosting a truly excellent set of panellists to talk about the US Presidential election, and what lies ahead. We’re on the record today. We have an online audience. You can talk as much as you’d like to about all the things that they say. We look forward to your questions.

In addition to being 33 days away from the election, we already have early voting taking place, in person, online. I think 13 million people nationally have signed up for their ballots, of those, 50% of them are Democrats. Democrats tend to be more inclined to vote early, and we know that the polls – we’re going to hear a lot more about this from John Zogby, in particular, we know that the polls tell us a story that I think most of us probably read as being a real sign that it’s a fool’s errand to guess who’s going to win on November 5th, or whenever that result is declared.

I should say one thing, which is that, you know, we’re an international affairs think tank. That means that we also are hosting a lot of conversations about the foreign policy and global implications of this election. We did that last week, the, sort of, global challenges, humanitarianism, migration, trade, last week surrounding UNGA. We’ve been travelling across Latin America, Asia and Europe, talking to government and international individuals about the stakes that they perceive in this election. But today is really about the election itself, and I think that is where the conversation is, and that is where the conversation really is going to remain for the next, at least, 33 days.

So, on the morning after an evening of a Vice Presidential debate, Justin Webb, very well-known voice to all of us who listen to the Today programme at Radio 4, and also, in my case, watch you on TikTok. Brian Klaas, who writes prolifically, one of the leading thinkers on corruption, has written extensively on Donald Trump, and many other things, contributes to the Atlantic Monthly. John Zogby, a leading Pollster, has a book that came out just last week, and has done a lot with us at Chatham House. Sarah Baxter was Deputy Editor of The Sunday Times, now at the Maria – Marie Colvin Center, in New York, and obviously writes extensively on this.

So, Justin, over to you, where are we? How do you feel about it? What did you think about that debate last night? How would you, sort of, capture the moment in this election? And what are you looking at in the days ahead?

Justin Webb

The debate was fascinating but unimportant, if that’s a category that we can all agree exists. It was fascinating because JD Vance had made an obvious decision to move into the centre, or towards the centre, in the sense that he was moving away from his, kind of, natural habitat of the online, right-wing world that he has inhabited, and that has rather come back to bite him during the initial stages of the campaign. He obviously took a concerted decision, I think probably most people would think a successful decision, to move away from that.

Walz looked a bit bamboozled by it, I thought, ultimately, does it matter? No, not one bit. You can all of debates in the past, Vice Presential debates where there have been wicked zingers, and everyone said, “Gosh, he won,” and it hasn’t made the slightest bit of difference, and I don’t think yesterday was any different from that.

You could say, I suppose, in an incredibly tight race, where 10,000 votes, one way or the other, in a couple of states, could make a difference. You could say, well, if someone thinks, you know, I was toying with Trump, but I’m a bit put off by it all going a bit towards one extreme, and, actually, that Vance guy seemed more reasonable than I’ve been told he was, and he might be taking over, who knows, he might wait four years, might be taking over before four years, maybe I might be more tempted to vote. I mean, I suppose you could make that case. But I think – I just think it’s incredibly unlikely really that it swings it one way or the other.

The thing that I think we don’t talk enough about, that I think hangs over the whole race, is the – is what a Democrat described to me as the “political malpractice” of the whole Biden staying on and then departing so late thing that everyone knew. So, I do this Americast podcast, at the end of last year, I said to our people, and I said it on air, to – rather to the surprise of some people in the BBC, “I don’t think Biden’s going to be the candidate.” And I said – I also said, “I don’t think Trump is either,” ‘cause I thought there’d be a reaction. I thought Biden would go, and I thought Trump would then go, because he couldn’t – they – or they wouldn’t put him up against a newer, fresher face.

And the reason why I said that is a fundraiser on the West Coast, who I’d been talking to, said to me, “I was in a room the other day with Biden, he’s out to raise money, it was 20 people, and he was using an autocue, and he just didn’t look up to it.” And I think, you know, a lot of – I mean, to put it mildly, a lot of people knew, a lot of people knew, and said nothing, and they got into this mess where he, you know, has famously hung on, and hung on so late that she, even with the best will in the world, has a heck of a job, it seems to me, to catch up sufficiently to be in a position to win.

And the polls, you know, John will talk to us about the polls in a second, but the polls, it just seems to me, are a bit useless really, when it is this close, the idea that you can – and within the margin of error, or at least, in the – when they’re averaged out, in every single one of the swing states, what are you expected to take from that?

It could be, this is my final point, it could be that one or other of the candidates is actually quite concertedly ahead, but we don’t know it. In other words, they could win all of the swing states, it’s not necessarily – oh, we keep saying, “It’s close, it’s close, it’s close,” as if, you know, you can’t tell from one to other. But you can’t, but it could easily be that someone will win all the swing states, and win quite easily, so it’s not necessarily going to be 269-269, which is the glorious outcome that I know people have, kind of, woken up to now, and would cause all sorts of ructions.

So, yeah, it’s close, but it might not be close, and there’s this – hanging over it, it seems to me, this idea that, actually, it shouldn’t be. America shouldn’t be in the position it is in, and the Democrats shouldn’t be this unsurefooted, if that’s a word, when it comes to standing for what they want, which is to get rid of Donald Trump.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

It is an interesting question, if there had been a decision made earlier on the part of President Biden, whether that would actually have changed the margins, given what we know about the American electorate. They’ve sorted themselves geographically, it’s – comes down to an – between three and eight states, depending on the polls, and we know that in those states it’s a very heavily divided…

John Zogby

Hmmm.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

…electorate. That in the three that matter most, they’re just below, or just over, 80% White voters that are divided and lean towards Donald Trump. There are a lot of minority voters that may or may not turn out to vote, you know, and these are really high stakes states that don’t necessarily look like…

Justin Webb

Yeah.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

…the rest of the country, but is – it’s a very interesting question.

Sarah Baxter, you also said, maybe not as early, I’m not sure, but there was a moment when you also said that, you know, you saw Biden’s decision to step down coming, it came, but it didn’t come as…

Justin Webb

I’m sure she said it first. I always copy Sarah.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

…quickly. But from what – well, you’re in New York, you’ve obviously covered the US for a very significant part of your career, tell us your reflections and thoughts on the current state of the debate, of the race.

Sarah Baxter

Well, first of all, I’d like to politely disagree with Justin on two points. One, I think the Vice Presidential debate did matter, and I’ll explain why in a moment, and, two, I think the best thing that happened for the Democrats is not to give Kamala Harris too much time, or indeed, time for any other candidate to emerge. I think the lack of time has been hugely helpful to her, because she roared ahead of Trump, she’s now getting a bit stalled, the best thing for Democrats would have been for her to go to the – for America to go to the polls the day after she convincingly won her debate with Donald Trump.

Having had a huge surge of momentum from coming onto the scene, Kamala Harris is now stalling in the lead, but not comfortably in the lead, and that’s what puts everything on a knife edge, and because things are on a knife edge, I did think the debate mattered. One of the issues about Kamala Harris, the question’s persistently asked, is, “Is she lightweight?” She’s persuaded people that actually, she’s a pretty darn good campaigner, and good debater, but does she really have the chops to be President?

Well, she’s now – Tim Walz looked inexperienced, rather scared and nervous in last night’s debate, and he came across as ultra-lightweight. Now, he did score some points against Vance, which perhaps we can come to, but he didn’t strengthen the team, nor did he provide that essential function for a Vice Presidential running mate, which is being an attack dog, as opposed to Mr Nice Guy from Minnesota, the state with the reputation for “Minnesota nice.”

Those of you who remember Garrison Keillor and Lake Wobegon, you know, it used to be said about Minnesota that all children were above average, you know, they just – but I thought that Tim Walz was supposed to be the guy who could land a punch. The guy who successfully labelled JD Vance “weird,” and then went about last night effectively normalising him, except on the point about democracy and who won the 2020 election. At which point, I think huge numbers of Democrats sighed with relief, and hoped that that would be the main soundbite of the night, when Vance tried to avoid the question and suck up to his boss.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Right, and it is – I mean, there is an interesting question, we – I think 70 million people watched the debate, more or less, between President – Former President Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, probably a much smaller number, I don’t know if the numbers are out, do you know the numbers?

Justin Webb

I haven’t seen them.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

And so, a lot of people might just see the soundbite that came at the very end of that debate, that’s been talked about all over the media, which is quite a powerful point, even though you’re right, it comes, sort of, at the end, after a debate that I think, in my view, you characterised fairly accurately, or, at least, to my sensibilities.

John Zogby, you do the polls, you know – you’re watching this stuff, you’re – been doing this for years, you’ve watched many Presidential elections, many elections at the state level, please tell us what’s going to happen on November 5th.

John Zogby

You mentioned “fool’s errand,” I’m not going to be a fool. So, you know, amidst all this disruption and conflict of hyperpolarisation, the one thing that’s in equilibrium, and is likely to stay there for most of the rest of the campaign, is the campaign itself. This is very similar in a lot of ways to Gore versus Bush, in 2000, which, obviously, was ultimately a tie, as close as you could get to a tie, in the end. But during September and October, we would see the pendulum swing towards Bush three, four or five points, and then just as you thought the very next day that Bush would ice it, the pendulum would swing back, and Gore would go up three, four or five points, and so, it ended up swinging right into the centre.

The other model is 2012. I don’t think people remember that Obama versus Mitt Romney was a very close race, that swung back and forth the same way as 2000, with Romney taking significantly, to then Obama swinging back. And then it was the weekend before the election the dam broke, and as Justin pointed out, what had been deficits for Obama turned into one, two, three-point victories in the states, and in the Electoral College it was a blowout.

And so, where do we stand at this moment? Advantage Kamala Harris, the most recent polls this week have her leading by four and five points. That’s not likely to stay for a bunch of reasons, one of which is the October surprise. My son, who is with me in the business, has been talking about an October surprise, lo and behold, we possibly have two. We have a major dock workers strike, that could wreak significant havoc on the US economy, not inconsistent with what COVID did, if that strike continues. The other potential surprise, of course, is a regional war, and the fear that people might have on election day, not only the economy, but, hey, we’re at war, this could be a real disadvantage for the Democrats.

But, you know, in the final analysis, I think that we’re more likely to see a 2012 redux than a 2000 redux. I think it’s likely to stay pretty close, right to the end, and then the dam will burst, one way or the other, and I don’t know which way it will.

Sarah Baxter

Hmmm.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

I confess, I did read an exchange that you had, I think with your son, just recently, where you explained this, and it’s quite terrifying to think that the future of many basic policies in the US, and globally, might hinge on the dam breaking and who feels more passionately on the day to turnout and actually register their vote? It’s, you know, it’s – if it’s terrifying for Americans, it must be really terrifying for the rest of the world.

Brian, please give us your thinking on this election.

Dr Brian Klaas

Yeah, thank you. I’ll just say briefly to Sarah, as well, I’m from Minnesota, and I can confirm that all the children are indeed above average. I co-managed the campaign for the Governor before Tim Walz, back in Minnesota. And one thing that I want to start with is, you know, if you were listening to us, I think you would think that this was a completely normal election, right? We’re making comparisons with 2000, 2012, etc.

A couple of months ago, we had an unbelievable situation where there were three candidates in the race, and they can factually be described as a 34-time felon, found liable for sexual assault, who incited a mob to attack the US Capitol, after trying to steal an election that he lost, that he still won’t accept that he lost. A man who is predominantly known for being anti-vaccine, and carried a dead bear cub carcass to New York City’s Central Park, who has now dropped out of the race, and, third, someone who is a relatively normal, mainstream Politician, who’s a former Prosecutor.

And I think there’s an extraordinary aspect to this moment about America that this is close. I think that’s something that we have to grapple with, that there’s something deeply broken about a democracy in which a 34-time convicted felon is on the cusp of again becoming President, a role that when he last had it, he tried to stay in power after losing an election, right? I mean, we imagine this in the British context, that – how would you interview a Politician from Westminster, if they had incited an attack on Parliament, and refused to take – you know, to drop power, and had been convicted in a court of 34 different felony charges, right? So, that’s one piece of background that I think is worth pointing out here.

Justin Webb

It would certainly come up in the interview.

Dr Brian Klaas

It would indeed, the ten past eight would be an adversarial one, I think. So, you know, so, that’s, sort of, one point that I wanted to just raise, this is an extremely unusual election, and the stakes of it are enormous.

On the polling itself, when I worked in campaign politics in the US, the first day, the candidate I worked for took me aside and said, “We’ve already won 40% of the vote, we’ve already lost 40% of the vote, now we’re going to spend 18 months trying to get the 20% in the middle,” right? And that’s how campaigns work, it’s a turnout game, and it’s a marginal gains game, for people who are undecided voters. How someone can be undecided in this election baffles me, because what more information do you need to know about these extremely different choices? But, nonetheless, there are undecided voters, who will be pivotal.

The way I view the election, and, you know, again, this is all forecasting, and, you know, it’s crystal ball stuff at the moment, but the way I would describe it, in my own personal read of the situation, is there’s four possible outcomes, right? A big Harris win, a narrow Harris win, a narrow Trump win, and a big Trump win.

The first three would not surprise me, at all, the fourth would surprise me. So, in other words, I would not be surprised if Harris wins by five points. I would not be surprised if she ekes out a victory, and I would not be surprised if Trump narrowly wins. I would be very surprised if Trump wins by five points. And the reason for that is because Donald Trump has incredible political instincts on some issues, but he has never understood how to grow beyond his base. He galvanises his base, he is able to bring Republicans home, he has done literally zero outreach to get someone who doesn’t already like Donald Trump to vote for Donald Trump. It’s always about why the other side is bad, etc.

Kamala Harris is running a campaign that is trying to win over those voters. And that’s where I disagree with Sarah about the Vice Presidential debate, because even though Tim Walz was relatively soft spoken and meek last night, he has a 37% net approval rating, he was affable, and he is viewed much more favourably than JD Vance is. And so, for when you’re looking at someone as a potential swing voter, and you look at this person who’s, you know, viewed as Coach Walz in some patterns, and so on, I think that aspect of it was part of the strategy. It was that, for the people who are undecided, look, he’s a well-intentioned person, who doesn’t have this, sort of, other side to him, which I think people see about JD Vance.

So, my general take on this is that, you know, I have no idea who’s going to win the election, but I would be far less surprised if Harris won by five than if Trump won by five, I’d put it that way.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Please, Justin.

Justin Webb

Can I ask…

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Thank you, Brian.

Justin Webb

…John Zogby a question? Do you…

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

No, that’s my role.

Justin Webb

I just – it just…

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Every morning.

Justin Webb

…it just fascinates this – me, this, and you’ve seen it, kind of, emerging and then submerging again, ‘cause people think, what the heck? But it’s a really interesting question, would it have made any difference if she’d picked Josh Shapiro, since we’re talking about the VP…

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Hmmm.

Justin Webb

…debate, and VPs more generally? Is there any evidence, at all, do you think? Or can you, kind of, assume from what we know about his popularity in Pennsylvania, etc., that there would be a difference if she’d gone down that road?

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Before you answer that, John, let me just add one comment on that, which is, it’s very interesting to me, as I’ve listened to mv very deeply knowledgeable British compatriots talk about the election, they’re already willing to look back – you’ve started already saying, “What if Biden had stood down earlier? What if it had been Josh Shapiro?” I’ve heard other people say, “What if there had been more of a contest amongst the different potential replacements for Biden?” I think that Americans are in a fundamentally different space, by and large, which is, the Historians can do that later. This is a race that is, you know, is so deeply consequential that they’re not yet ready. I’m going to let you answer that question, John Zogby, and then I want to come back to the panellists with a follow-up.

John Zogby

Okay, thanks, and, thanks, Justin.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Josh Shapiro.

John Zogby

Josh Shapiro, the chemistry was wrong. He came into the final meeting with the assumption that he was going to be the Vice Presidential nominee, and a list of demands, and that obviously rubbed her the wrong way, Walz was Walz. But the fundamental difference, I think, came down to a demographic, not simply the Midwest, where Josh Shapiro could have helped, but young voters, particularly younger women voters, for whom Gaza is an extremely important issue. And Tim Walz had a much more moderate stance towards Israel, supportive of Israel, but much more modulated, Josh Shapiro was out front, pro-Israel. And that is going to matter, it’s going to matter not simply, as everyone says, to Arab Americans, you know, in Michigan, but really to younger voters, particularly, as I said, younger women.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Thank you for that, and it, sort of, does get to the next question that I want to ask, and what you’ve just said seems especially important in light of the current moment. And, I guess, I want to ask you the identity question, all of you, and, you know, we know when we read the polls that Americans are voting primarily on, you know, how expensive is their gas, their rent, what are they paying for a cup of coffee, their food, especially, in the grocery store, and they care about immigration, they care about abortion rights, we, sort of, know the list of issues.

But there is, also, the looming obvious fact of this election, which is that there’s a woman on one side and there’s a man on the other, and the man is White and the woman is not White. And it’s not really, as I’ve seen it, you know, fully integrated into the polls, but there is a question of who, you know, who can represent us and what makes sense. And in the swing states, in particular, where you’re talking about, give or take, depending on the three big states, 80% White voters, middle cla – and the – you know, the campaigns have been about the middleclass, but surely identity is something that is driving voter choice. I mean, you know, before we go to the Pollster, maybe, Sarah, what is your insight into that? You’re on the ground in the United States.

Sarah Baxter

Well, you put your finger on something very important, because while men and women can agree that econom – the economy is a huge issue, they are totally split on the issue of who to vote for.

John Zogby

Hmmm hmm.

Sarah Baxter

There is a massive gender gap, which acrosses all ages, young men, are – the majority of young men are supporting Donald Trump, young women, absolutely overwhelmingly, by blowout numbers, are supporting Kamala Harris. Now, there’s an interesting figure that the Brookings Institution came up with, which said that women are more reliable voters than men. So, one of the great unknowns to me, when we all wonder, who’s going to emerge as the victor, could Kamala Harris run the table, or will Donald Trump rely on his base and eke out a narrow victory, the missing question is, in what numbers are women going to turnout?

Because previously, they’ve surprised the Pollsters, in 2022, by turning out in huge numbers for the midterm elections, to defend their abortion rights. Because, basically, on the Republican side, we have two men on a ticket who want men at state level, who run the state legislatures, etc., to tell women what they can do with their bodies, and this is huge for women.

So, I haven’t gone into the issue of race, that’s slightly more complicated, but, overwhelmingly, it’s shown that Kamala Harris is beginning to reassemble that coalition, traditional Democratic coalition, of Hispanics, Asian Americans, and Black voters. There is a bit of a problem with Black [audio cuts out – 25:42], but women, Black women, are registering to vote in huge numbers, to come out and support their sister. This is another unknown. I don’t want to overegg it, because I think, by the same token, a surprising number of men, particularly White men, are supporting Donald Trump, will they show up to vote? Or if they’re young White men, will they bother to get out of bed? We don’t know. But if there’s…

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Or to vote early, no, it’s – and thank you for that. Brian, you think a lot about unions, about working class American voters in the swing states, is this a – is this an – I mean, I know it’s not an either/or, it’s much more complicated, but could you speak to this class versus identity question and what’s really driving, you know, when you – within the issues, what’s really impassion – what’s making American voters passionate?

Dr Brian Klaas

Yeah, I mean, I think that immigration is obviously the core issue for the Trump coalition, it’s that, plus, inflation and economic woes, and so on. But honestly, I, you know, I think that there’s a lot of – one of the big insights that I had when I was working in campaign politics, which was, you know, you can parse the data as much as you want to and then you’d go and vote – you’d go and speak to a voter, right? And I was the Policy Director as well as the Deputy Campaign Manager for this gubernatorial campaign, so, like, when we would develop this policy brief of, like, our education platform, we could see how many times it was downloaded. And we won – you know, Minnesota’s got five million people, and there was – you know, we won a million votes and won the election, but I think the policy brief for the education plan was downloaded, like, 41 times, right? Out of – and we got a million votes.

So, when we met people on the campaign trail, I would say, you know, “Why are you voting for us?” ‘Cause I would want to get feedback. And it was very impressionistic, you know, it was not, “Oh, we love your five-point plan on taxes.” It’s expressions of identity and aspirations and what Political Psychologists call “schemas,” right? Schemas, are these sort of cognitive shortcuts for how people understand politics. And so this is where I think, you know, Walz was picked, through that weird aspect, it broke through. It was like, do you know people who are obsessed with whether women have children or not? JD Vance is, is that something that you normally interact with, and, if so, would you like to turn over the reins of power, right?

So, I think this is the kind of stuff where I don’t think the issues are really driving this race as much as the, sort of, very different impressions of what America is, right? And I think there is a radically different view of what America is in this race, and that’s why, even if this – even if the election is resolved in a decisive way, there’s a generational problem that exists in American democracy, which is, what do we do with the fact that people who have fundamentally different worldviews, and who could, you know, choose between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, as radically different as they are, what do we do to make that work?

And I don’t think that’s a question that’s going to be resolved on November 5th. So, I don’t ha – I mean, I do think – I agree with Sarah that the turnout issue is a huge one. I think that’s something that the polls struggle with, because they don’t know what voters will show up. And in 2022 it was less of a – I think it surprised a lot of people, there was a lot of talk about “red waves,” and then, of course, there was a big turnout among women, and what the Democrats have shrewdly done in many states is they’ve put initiatives on the ballot about abortion in the swing states that will hopefully – I mean, presumably, will galvanise a certain number of voters who might not otherwise show up to the polls.

Justin Webb

Can I just…

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Justin.

Justin Webb

…address the race side of it, because there’s some really interesting work, you know, this is a very academic audience, and you would be interested in this guy. A guy called Mike Madrid, who is a Republican political operative, anti-Trump, but he’s written a really interesting book, whose name I can’t remember, but Mike Madrid’s quite a memorable name, isn’t it, about the Latino vote this time round and, indeed, in future elections.

And his point is, yes, Latinos will vote, overwhelmingly, it seems, for Harris, but possibly at the moment they’re not showing up necessarily in the numbers that voted in 2020, and that has been because there’s been, as he would say, if he were here, a fundamental mistake made by the Democrats, which is to try to appeal to Latinos on identity, race grounds. Whereas Latinos increasingly in the United States, and they’re a hugely important part of the election, in fact, in every swing state, they make up probably more than the difference that there will be between the candidates, so, I mean, they could be really crucial this time round. And we’ve kept talking about it, even I was based in America more than 15 years ago, and we were saying then, it’s the coming wave, and – but it’s kind of this time round and certainly next time round, simply because of the huge rise in sheer numbers of voters, of Latino voters, in the states.

But here’s the mistake that Mike Madrid says that the Democrats have made, those new voters are not people who’ve come recently into America, because of the crisis, for the financial crisis, and because of COVID, there’s actually been quite a reduction in the numbers of people coming in and becoming naturalised citizens and earning the voting right. But they’re still having a lot of kids, and it’s the kids who are now voting and it’s second, third, even fourth generation, and they see themselves – this is the point Mike Madrid was making to me the other day, that they see them – he said, “It’s like talking to people – it’s like talking to Irish Americans about the potato famine.” They just look at you, kind of, blankly, as if, “What’s the – why’s that?”

So, the way that you approach these people, if you approach them on, kind of, racial grounds and say, “You are part of an oppressed people of colour in this country, and we’re going to do X, Y and Z,” that is not, according to this guy, the way to do it. The way to do it, and this is the point of this, the way to do it is through, because they are so much the backbone of the American working class now, particularly the men, I think it’s – I think one in five construction workers is now a Latino man, that those things that she – that Kamala Harris has concentrated on more recently, like, housing and construction more generally, and housing not just in terms of providing housing, but housing in terms of making housing, that those are the ways, in other words, it’s a class-based approach that he is saying she should take.

And it’s really interesting to me whether or not that is the right approach, whether Latinos can be brought onboard to an extent that makes a real difference this time round and, indeed, as Sarah was saying, young Black men, as well. We came across – and my colleague, Marianna Spring, interviewed a young Black guy in Atlanta at the beginning of the year and she was talking about who he’s going to vote for, and he said he’d probably vote for Trump. And Marianna said, you know, “Do you not – are you not worried that he’s a racist?” And he said, “Yeah, I think he is, but then I think they all are, and at least he’s, kind of, open about it.” And there’s a, sort of – there’s – you know, you were talking about, is it schema?

Dr Brian Klaas

Yeah, schema.

Justin Webb

I’d never heard that before.

Dr Brian Klaas

Yeah, yeah.

Justin Webb

This, kind of, sense with Trump of, kind of, rugged authenticity, even if you don’t terribly like him as a person, which I think still matters, actually, this time round, and to some of these groups of people, for whom democracy has not been very kind in the past, they’re seeing this through a different lens, I think, that’s the point that these people make.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

It is interesting too, because, you know, under – one additional thing underpinning what you’re saying is that there’s, sort of, a disagreement about, for that working class, is the story that resonates, you’ve not done well, and, therefore, we should give you housing benefits…

Justin Webb

Hmmm.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

…and the – we know the list, or is the story that resonates, you are the backbone of America, you can have anything here, you can do well? And I’m very surprised, I, as I’ve said many times, I grew up in Omaha, it’s an important place in this election, potentially. I was there a few weeks ago, a couple of days after Lindsey Graham, who failed in his effort to turn that into a winner takes all state, but I have heard many working class Americans say, anecdotally, “Why are we – working class Americans, why are we giving so much money away for free?” These are people who would benefit from these policies, right? Who reject them because they believe in…

Justin Webb

Yeah.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

…you work hard, it pays off, that’s what the American Dream is about. So, there’s a lot of economics in this, and it’s a very complicated story, it’s an extremely important story, at the elite level, at the working class level.

I want to ask all of you about that, before we turn to the audience. I want to ask you about November 5th to January 20th. That’s a really important time, always the fundamental norm in any democracy is the peaceful transition of power. We all know that that is something that is regulated by laws, but it’s also regulated by people’s willingness to comply with norms, which aren’t fully legal, and we all know that it doesn’t always work well.

And it matters, not only because it’s interesting and disturbing that it might not happen peacefully this time, but it matters for the rest of the world, because the rest of the world is going to have to decide what to say to Americans and American leaders and the American electorate, potentially in a period where things are undecided for some period of time. So, John Zogby, what is your feeling about November 5th to January 20th at midday? What do you anticipate?

John Zogby

Well, first of all, I just want to comment on something that Justin said. There’s another dynamic going on among Hispanic voters, as well, and that is that about 40% of them identify as Conservatives, ideologically, and the fastest growing element of – within the Hispanic “community” are evangelical Christians. They’re certainly propping up the Catholic Church on one hand, but the growing number of storefront evangelical churches is, kind of, astounding, especially those in some key swing states.

Now, this is an election I fear is truly an Armageddon election, that, perhaps, if it’s close, neither side is willing to accept the other candidate winning. Now, last night gave me some hope, on a very personal level, the civility, the maturity, of course, games were being played, and they were going for a more moderate voter, but the fact that the two candidates could address the – moderate voters, and each other, you know, wa – just gave me some hope.

But, on the other hand, I do fear that a close election is going to be real trouble, and we already know that Donald Trump has said that. He has not committed – at the very least he hasn’t committed to the outcome if he loses. But I think Democrats representing their base, who are equally passionate, are probably not going to let this one go, unless it’s a blowout.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Sarah.

Sarah Baxter

Yes, well, I actually have become, somewhat to my own surprise, a bit of an expert on the evangelical movement, ‘cause I’ve just completed a 2,500 word review of four books on the subject for The Times literary supplement. And one of the things that I really learnt was how important evangelical Christians are to Donald Trump’s base. Now, I thought I knew that. I thought I knew about, you know, the Southern Baptists and, blah, blah, but, actually, what’s happened is there’s an evangelical, charismatic Christian movement that is as different to establishment evangelism and the evangelical Christian movement, if – to put it like that, as MAGA is from traditional Republicans, and…

John Zogby

Hmmm hmm.

Sarah Baxter

…churchgoing evangelicals who found that their Pastors were preaching love thy neighbour and tolerance and reconciliation, were finding that they were preaching to deserted mega-churches with deserted parking lots, while their flock went off to join their charismatic evangelicals. One of them called Lance Wallnau, who believes in this seven mountain mandate, JD Vance went to speak at one of Wallnau’s meeting’s last weekend. And this is happening at a level – they have TV stations and radio stations, and the point I’m coming to is they have a very Armageddon view of the election. They think, they truly believe, that angels are backing Donald Trump, and that the future of America as a Christian nation is at stake, and they were among the crowd that showed up on January 6.

And they’re organised, because they’re organised through their churches and through their own media ecosystem. And, honestly, I’m quite worried, having read these books, about what this significant slice of the Christian population in America, that has gone all in for Donald Trump, in the most radical extreme way, will do if their man loses the election. I don’t want to overegg it, but there are 400 million guns in private hands in America, a lot of these guys own them, and some of them are itching to use them, so, I do worry.

But John Zogby made a good point about the debate giving hope. I was disappointed that Tim Walz…

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Yeah.

Sarah Baxter

…was more of an attack dog, but there was something positive about their civil behaviour.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Thank you. That’s an extremely point, and we all do know that there are plenty of evangelical – self-defining evangelical Christians who are very moderate and anti-political violence. It would be really helpful to get some – I mean, I…

Sarah Baxter

Take activity away from them.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

…can’t wait to read the review, but you make a very good point, we know that a lot of evangelicals in the US are completely moderate, and people that we would identify as quite normal in their everyday behaviour, but the – but we’re never talking about the normal when we’re talking about the potential for political violence. So, Brian, you’ve studied this, tell us what your thinking is on the transition, and what you’re watching.

Dr Brian Klaas

Yeah, well, I mean, I’m always hesitant to make specific predictions, but I did make a specific prediction. I wrote a piece for The Washington Post in March of 2020, which was my most successful, in a very depressing way, prediction probably in American politics, where I said, “If Trump loses, he’s going to reject the election results, and between the election and the inauguration, there’s going to be a significant moment of political violence, of trying to basically not accept the result,” which ultimately happened on January 6th.

I think all the forces that conspired for that to happen are much worse this time around. I do somewhat disagree with John, I think it’s asymmetric, and the reason I think it’s asymmetric is because the Democrats have made such an enormous, enormous point about election integrity, that I believe that if Trump wins, I think that there will be – unless there are, like, you know, genuinely irregular things happening, I think they will accept and have the peaceful transition of power, because they have primed their base for so long to say this is a central part of what it means to be a Democrat, with a big D, but also with a small d, right?

The aspect I think about why it’s more volatile now, one, is that already – even though this is completely untrue, right? The majority of Republicans believe that Donald Trump won the election in 2020, so they already believe, and, you know, you put yourself in the mindset, they believe that the election was stolen, okay? If this – Trump is now saying on the campaign trail, “If I lose, the only way that’s possible is if they rig it,” right? He’s explicitly saying this at rallies.

And the other thing that I think people who are not watching the rallies closely might not clock, is that the way that Trump opens many of his rallies is by playing the national anthem, as sung by January 6th convicted felons, in jail, into a phone, literally, and it’s – it was a major song on the iTunes charts in America, and he often will have the national anthem sung by the January 6th felons, right? And he’s pledged repeatedly to pardon them, if – on the first day he’s in office, and let them out of prison.

So, you know, he’s, sort of, ramping up this aspect of not just, you know, laying the groundwork for saying the election’s going to be stolen again, but saying, “January 6th was fine, and these people are persecuted and shouldn’t have been put in jail,” which he explicitly says in many of his rallies.

On top of that, the messianic aspect is one that is asymmetric. I mean, you may have noticed that there are images of Donald Trump as a Jesus-like figure, riding an eagle, carrying an AK-47. Where have you seen Joe Biden on an eagle, you know, or in a Toyota Prius, right? I mean, these aspects are not – they’re asymmetric, there’s a element around personalism with Trump that there is not with Harris and with Biden.

And the really bizarre thing about it, which I, you know, I don’t mean to be flippant about this, ‘cause the political violence is really serious, but the idea that, you know, there is the divine will to spare Trump from these horrible assassination attempts, which all of us, unequivocally, I’m sure, denounce, and should never have happened, and the Secret Service really dropped the ball there, but there’s this idea that, you know, God saved Trump, and then in his divine wisdom ploughed the bullet into the person behind him, who died, right? I mean, there’s a disconnect here, that there’s this aspect where he is this, sort of, saviour figure, and because of that viewpoint, I think it raises the stakes enormously, right?

I don’t think the Democrats will be happy. I think there’s going to be a cataclysmic reaction, in terms of the, sort of, outpouring of grief and anger if Trump is re-elected, and worry, and so on. But I don’t think there will be a systemic attempt to block the certification of the results, in the way that there was after the 2020 election.

So, I would personally say that if Trump loses, I think there’s a significant risk of political violence, and if Trump wins, I think there is a risk of lone wolf political violence, which is what we’ve seen with people who are trying to kill Trump. Not militias, not Democrat Politicians inciting violence, etc., but a genuine risk that a lone wolf will try to enact political violence in that way.

Justin Webb

Can I just…

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Justin, please…

Justin Webb

…add to that?

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

…yes.

Justin Webb

So, election night itself, I mean, you’ve talked about the period up to the transition, election night itself, it seems to me, is a potential danger, simply because you’re going to have what happened last time, but potentially even more so, inasmuch as Trump will seem to be winning, initially, because they’ll be counting the votes that were cast on the day. And it seems as if Republicans – I mean, Republicans could vote early, but it seems as if they – well, they certainly haven’t in the past, and it looks as if they’re not going to this time round, and there may be a really significant – we don’t know how many people will vote early, will have voted early, but it could be really significant numbers. And they’re likely to be Democrats, and in some key states, and I think I’m right in saying Pennsylvania’s one of them, you can’t count the votes that aren’t counted on the day, that aren’t voted on the day, until you’ve counted all the ones on the day.

So, he will be ahead, and then, gradually through the night, less and less ahead, and potentially then, during the course of the night, losing. And that, you could not organise, it seems to me, a way of doing these things that was more likely to lead to a jeopardy for the nation, even on that night. Beyond that though, I – just taking up what John said, it’s interesting to hear Brian say that he thinks on the left there would be an acceptance of it, and no effort even not to certify, ‘cause, of course, it would be Kamala Harris who was not certifying. I wonder, but I think I’m probably more with John Zogby on that.

I do think there is such a sense of demonisation of Trump, rightly or wrongly, and such a sense of personal commitment to this whole thing, and of anger, that will be partly directed at Joe Biden, partly at the Democratic Party, but it seems to me partly at every, kind of, aspect of America that has “allowed this to happen.” And I’m not entirely convinced, when you look at the Black Lives Matter protests, and all the other things that have brought people onto the streets, I’m not entirely convinced that a Trump victory is, kind of, completely then free of any, kind of, pushback and potential pushback on the streets. So, I think there are dangers on both sides, and I’m not saying that simply ‘cause I work for the BBC, and we tend to say those things, I think it is genuine.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Well, the nice thing about this panel is that a lot of what we’re hypothesising, we will be able to evaluate in a matter of 33 days.

I’m going to come straight to all of you, first – I’m going to take two questions, first, right here, and then…

Sebastian

Good evening, I’m Sebastian…

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Where are the women in the room?

Sebastian

…[inaudible – 47:18], I’m a member at Chatham House. So…

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Thank you.

Sebastian

…I’d be quite interested to know, on the theme of populism, I feel like we haven’t touched upon that this evening, I find it quite interesting how in the US politics, you know, the two campaigns, or rather the two parties, have, at their rallies incited, sort of, Taylor Swift or other certain, you know, musicians, behind their tribe, just to, kind of, gather voters. And I’m also, kind of, interested in the views of someone like Elon Musk, who’s bankrolling a Republican campaign for Trump, who’s supposedly, you know, running a platform such as Twitter, which is supposedly non-partisan, and then what effect that might have, you know, on the election, in terms of populism?

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Thank you, great question. Somebody right back in the back there, the gentleman with his hand held high. And then I’m going to read out David – Sir David Manning’s question from the online.

Richard Johnson

Hi there, my name is Richard Johnson. I’m a Senior Lecturer in US politics at Queen Mary University of London. I want to ask about Congress, we haven’t talked about that.

Justin Webb

Hmmm.

Richard Johnson

The Senate map is very bad for the Democrats. It’s quite possible that they will lose the Senate, which would make Kamala Harris the first newly elected Democrat since Grover Cleveland not to have the Senate in Democratic hands. This might have some impact on who she can appoint to her Administration. I wonder if you could reflect on the congressional politics of this election?

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Let me add one onto that from Sir David Manning, very important person to me, and to all of us at Chatham House. “How far does the traditional Republican Party now exist? Is this now an election contest between a Democratic Party and a Trump cult?” So, three really big questions, but we have 11 minutes, and we’re going to go back to the audience, and we have four extremely knowledgeable and intelligent people, so very succinct answers, and only answer one of them.

Justin Webb

Can I give a succinct answer on the Senate?

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Okay.

Justin Webb

Okay, I mean, it’s really – well – and on the House, as well, but the Senate is really interesting, because of what’s happened in West Virginia, there is – I mean, they’re already starting one down. So, basically, it’s the best, it seems to me, the Democrats could possibly hope for, is 50-50, and then if Kamala Harris wins…

Member

[Inaudible – 49:28].

Justin Webb

Yeah, well, yeah, I mean, I think it’s extremely unlikely that they do any better than that. So, I think it’s quite likely, I mean, it’s obviously quite likely, that the Senate flips, and that situation that you’ve just outlined happens. And it is really important, it does absolutely hamstring her in all sorts of ways. Except that, it’s equally possible that in that situation, if she wins, that the House is rewon by the Democrats, probably not by much, but by a bit. And that further complicates the situation, but, potentially, ameliorates the loss of the Senate. But you’re absolutely right, I think we focus, in a sense, way too much on the Presidential election, for pretty obvious reasons, but what happens in the House and the Senate will have a really big impact on, actually, either of them being able to do what they want to do.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Very important point of discussion in all of our bilateral meetings, especially in Mexico, because that – how Congress goes obviously matters for a lot of the big issues at stake. Who wants to take the champions, the Taylor Swifts, the Elon Musk? John, please.

John Zogby

I got it. Oh, go ahead, Sarah, you go first.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

John and then Sarah.

Sarah Baxter

Oh, okay.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Okay, Sarah, go.

Sarah Baxter

Okay, I’m going. Very quickly, Elon Musk is the biggest male influencer in the world, and is having a huge impact on young men voters. And I can’t seem to get away from him on my own X feed, because he’s such a self-promoter, and he’s donating money to the Trump campaign, this is huge.

The broad coalition that Kamala Harris is assembling is interesting. Tim Walz drew attention to it last night, in his closing speech, drawing attention to the fact that it includes everybody from Bernie Sanders to Dick Cheney to Taylor Swift. And yet, somehow, the fact that Dick Cheney’s there in the mix, even though I think it’s a wonderful range in a way, it makes people think, oh yeah, that’s the blob, the swamp, Donald Trump is the change agent. So, I’m not sure that turning out loads of these Republicans for Harris is necessarily convincing people to vote for her.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Great. John Zogby.

John Zogby

Yeah, real quick, Taylor Swift matters in a big way, and just as in 2012, there was a low turnout among young men, but a huge turnout among young women, and 73% of young women voted for Obama, to put him over the top. I think that Taylor Swift is a real influencer among young women. Elon Musk, you know, I agree with Sarah. I live…

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

I’m going to pause you there, and come back to you on the next round. The Republican Party, Sir David Manning’s question.

Dr Brian Klaas

Yeah, yeah, so, I mean, I’ll say this, in prelude, is that my day job is a Political Scientist, my background and my PhD is all in authoritarianism and the breakdown of democracy. And speaking as a Political Scientist, pretty much every American Political Scientist will agree that the Trump movement is in the authoritarian populism camp. That would be analogous to those, like, Viktor Orbán, and so on, which is not true of the Democratic Party in this current moment.

And so, the risk there is that you have a situation where each election becomes a referendum on democracy rather than Democrats, as it were. And I think there is a risk here, I mean, I think there are aspects where you look at the mainstream Republicans, they are very willing to lie on behalf of Donald Trump regularly, and they are very willing to reject the idea of unequivocally saying, “We will accept the result of the election.” Democrats will say that, no problem, and you may be right, that there will be groups that protest, and so on, but the Democratic Politicians unequivocally say, “Yes, we will accept the result of the election,” and Republicans don’t.

So, I do worry about this, I think there is a generational problem, when you have one party that is broadly in the, sort of, realm of normal, mainstream politics of the last 30 years. It’s gotten further left on cultural issues, certainly, but in terms of democracy as institutions, the Democrats are still committed to institutions, and the Republicans are not in the same way. And so, you know, that’s my read as a Political Scientist, I think there’s a very big risk going forward.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

And, to be fair, a lot of Republicans are committed to the institutions, they’re just not really committed to the current state of the Republican Party, which I know you know. Right here at the back, we’ll take a couple, and then we’ll have…

Daniel Denkaya

Daniel…

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

…our closing…

Daniel Denkaya

…Denkaya. My question’s more towards party succession, how do you see that happening post-election? What do you think the Democratic strategy versus the Republican Party strategy is?

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Thank you.

Justin Webb

Great question.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Right over here, in the front row, and, actually, the woman right – if you go to the woman first, sorry, at the back, and then we’ll come to the front row, and then we’ll come back.

Member

Hi, thank you so much for the really interesting talk, and I work at Wellcome Trust. I’m just really curious to understand a bit more about what a second Trump Presidency might mean for multilateral co-operation. We’ve been hearing, for instance, that Canada aren’t really planning their G7 Presidency until they know the outcome of the election, because if it’s Trump it will be greatly diminished, so great to hear more, thanks.

Justin Webb

Hmmm.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Great question, something we think about a lot here at Chatham House.

Member

Hi, thank you, I’m a student at the School of Oriental and African Studies, getting my Master’s in Diplomacy, and I hear a lot of talk about what could happen potentially if the election goes through, if it’s very close, are you’re saying, with there being four options. With what’s going on currently in Fulton County in Georgia, with talks of the electors potentially not certifying, could you see there being a fifth option, where they’re delaying it, potentially not certifying and then causing more confusion and doubt?

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Anybody else? Right, front row here, and then we’ll wrap and come – everybody gets a minute to answer one of those questions.

Member

So, my question to the panel would be, how dangerous do you feel a future Trump Presidency could be to NATO, given his comments in the past and his actions during his Presidency, do you see a future for NATO, if Trump were to become President?

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

This is a good moment for me to say that we’re having a very important panel on October 30th here, where we are going to look at questions of multilateralism, of NATO, and of the G7, so please return, ‘cause we have four minutes. And I’m going to go in reverse – I’m going to start with the people onscreen, and then come, in reverse order, to the people on the floor. John, you get a minute.

John Zogby

Yeah, on the multilateralism and on NATO, I think that they’re in serious jeopardy, and, at the very least, delayed responses on the part of the – a Trump, a second Trump Administration and less of a commitment to multilateralism, both in the Middle East region, and on the European front.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Thank you. Sarah.

Sarah Baxter

Oh, I’d like to address the question about what happens afterwards, depending on who wins or loses. And a shout-out to David – Sir David Manning, by the way, he was a Washington Ambassador when I was in Washington for The Sunday Times, but it, sort of, pertains to his question, as well. Because the Republican Party is a bit of a cult, and it’s going to have to go through some, sort of, deprogramming.

I actually thought though JD Vance did himself some favours as a potential future leader who could move more towards the centre, if necessary, despite being way out there in so many of his public pronouncements, and maybe he was playing that game. And the Democrats quite simply are going to be fighting like cats in the sack over, “It should have been me,” you know, who’d taken on Donald Trump, and it’s going to be a terrible bun fight.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

I’m going to go Brian, and then Justin, ‘cause I’m going to rely on Justin to lift us up on a positive note before we head out the door, and I don’t ever look to Brian for that, and as much as I truly admire your work, that is just not…

Justin Webb

But he’s from Minnesota.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

…that is not…

Dr Brian Klaas

Yeah.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

…where you land, so…

Dr Brian Klaas

Well, I will say, my pessimism has been relatively accurate. So, what I’ll say is, about the multilateralism and the NATO points and some of this other stuff, there’s a bigger picture point that I want to close on, which is that, I think the biggest mistake people are making, when they think about a potential Trump second Presidency, is believing that because we saw this film once before, the sequel will be the same. Trump 2.0 would be radically different from Trump 1.0, in my view, because the Republican Party has completely changed.

And in 2017, you have his, you know, signature legislation, his international affairs constrained by people like John McCain, Jeff Flake, Liz Cheney, I mean, all the people who stood up to him, that blocked the more extreme aspects of his Presidency, are either dead or have been purged from the Republican Party. And the people who replaced them are true believers, or they have become true believers, like, Lindsey Graham, and Ted Cruz, and so on, where they’re willing to, even though they privately know this is a disaster, back him publicly.

And so, I think that, you know, this is – my biggest concern is that people are not understanding that Trump’s rallies are much more vindictive than they were in 2016, they’re much more angry, and, also, you know, we haven’t talked about this, but he has his freedom on the ballot, as well, because he could realistically go to prison, if he loses the election. And so, I think that aspect is something where I would not suggest that because he stayed in NATO the first time around that we can bank on him doing that the second time around.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Thank you. Justin.

Justin Webb

Okay, against that, in 30 seconds…

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Optimistic.

Justin Webb

…you look at the end of the 60s and the beginning of the 70s in America, look at the assassinations, look at the divisions, look at the, kind of, wholesale disaster that people right across the board thought that the nation was, and look at what happened afterwards. I haven’t even mentioned Watergate in that, America has its most incredible – it’s a trite thing to say, but it is actually true, and my God, we know this from recent economic facts, where we in Europe have struggled to recover from COVID, and America has had this extraordinary success, not that it’s done Biden and Harris much good electorally, but this incredible, kind of, soft landing, but more than that, ability to grow again, it’s the most extraordinary vibrant place.

It – for all that Brian says about its politics, Donald Trump is probably sui-generis, as they say in Mar-a-Lago, and Trump-lites are not going to work, it seems to me, and America, the natural thing is a, kind of, return to the medium when it comes to its politics. And I actually think you can – there is a case to be made for being more optimistic about not only the longer-term America, but even the, kind of, middle-term in America than we naturally would.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

I’m seeing agreement across the panel. I am a very mu…

Justin Webb

He has to ‘cause he’s from Minnesota.

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

…I am completely, I – and, you know, from Nebraska here, and we’ve got a lot of diversity geographically amongst our Americans at Chatham House. I’m a medium-term optimist, I think that the short-term is going to be rocky, but, you know, we’re in it to win it, and whatever that means. And this was tremendous, this was a great start of the 33 days, and I think we will continue to come back to this conversation. Obviously, October 30th, we have a panel on November 6th, but we will have more conversations in-between. What a tremendous panel, thank you for giving your time, and we look forward to continuing to read all of your work. Thank you [applause].

Justin Webb

Thank you.