Significant changes in how cement and concrete are produced and used are urgently needed to achieve deep cuts in emissions in line with the Paris Agreement on climate change.
Chatham House report
Published 13 June 2018
Updated 14 December 2020
ISBN: 978 1 78413 272 9
The scale of its market, the materials it has available locally and its role as an innovator give it a unique position to bring new, low-carbon cement and concrete technologies to maturity.
Although consumption is slowing, China will continue to be the largest cement consumer globally in the short term. Rapid urbanization is driving continued expansion of the construction sector – particularly in the western parts of the country as economic growth in coastal regions stabilizes.
The cement market is maturing fast, with rapid consolidation and industrialization being promoted by the central government. Cement standards and supervision have been improved, leading to efficiency gains. China already has a clinker ratio of 0.57, and this is expected to further decrease to 0.55 by 2060. However, China lags behind Europe on the use of alternative fuels.
China is also a major hub for innovation. Chinese companies and institutions make up the majority of patent assignees in our dataset. China is one of the few markets in which belite clinkers have been used in large infrastructure projects. It could also be a leader in digital disruption in the construction sector, with digital technologies already transforming a number of other sectors in the country. Chinese contractors spend almost three times as much as European contractors on R&D.
The Chinese government is a major procurer of construction materials and services, both domestically and overseas, through its Belt and Road Initiative. Approximately 20 per cent of all construction spending goes to public-works projects. The main market players include a large number of collective and state-owned companies.
The impacts of climate change on China are likely to be higher than for most countries in the northern hemisphere. Projections suggest an increase in flooding in southern provinces and water scarcity in northern provinces, with major knock-on effects for the construction sector both in terms of what needs to be built and what can be built.
China has:
With the majority of major multinational cement producers headquartered in the region, and with a long track record of policy action on cement sustainability and ambitious target-setting on the built environment, Europe is a key agenda-setter for the global market.
Overcapacity in the European cement sector and a highly industrialized market mean that existing kiln facilities are capable of meeting future demand for cement. European cement producers are some of the most advanced in terms of their use of alternative fuels, benefiting from advantageous regulatory support, but are behind India and China on energy efficiency.
Europe has a fairly established housing stock, with the majority of housing in many regions stemming from the reconstruction period (1946–70) that followed the Second World War. Although Europe’s building floor area is not expected to rise as much as in other regions, poor housing conditions in a number of European countries suggest that existing stocks could benefit from retrofit measures.
Europe has a history of progressive policies and market interest in establishing a more sustainable construction sector. It has the highest number of zero-carbon buildings. In France and Austria, zero-energy and positive-energy houses represent a growing share of new construction. Public procurement has been a key policy lever in the region.
Europe has strong agenda-setting power in the sector. The largest multinational cement-producing companies are headquartered in Europe, and the region’s standards and building codes are often followed in other locations. It also has a strong track record on policy and regulation in the cement sector.
The construction workforce in Europe is ageing, and the sector is already facing a serious skills shortage. These factors risk slowing down digital disruption and the efficiency gains that this might otherwise bring.
Europe has:
As a fast-growing cement market with increasing vulnerability to climate impacts, India has a key role to play in establishing the baseline for effective climate-smart infrastructure, urban planning and decision-making.
India is already the world’s second-biggest cement market. With the country’s rapid urbanization and urgent infrastructure needs, this consumption is set to increase. The floor area in India is expected to double by 2035. Accommodating a growing low-income urban population will require rapidly scalable collective housing, water, sewage, transport and social-service solutions.
These trends and needs suggest a substantial number of new cement plants will be built. These will replace older, less-efficient plants and contribute to the sector’s energy efficiency, which, according to the data available, is already higher than in Europe, the US and China. India is also expected to reach an ambitious clinker ratio of 0.50 by 2060.
The government has enacted a number of policies that focus on energy efficiency in buildings. Commercial buildings have been included in the Perform, Achieve and Trade programme – a market-based energy efficiency certificate trading scheme. India’s agreed Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under its Paris Agreement commitments was one of the few to recognize the potential that buildings play in helping a country achieve emissions reduction targets.
With 30 per cent of GDP spent on public procurement, the public sector could be a key driver of consumption of lower-carbon building materials. Reducing corruption and enhancing transparency and competitiveness are key challenges to overcome.
India is in a strong position to capitalize on digital disruption in the construction sector, as information and communication technology systems evolve. However, India does not crop up as a major patent hub in our dataset.
Across India, cities and infrastructure must already regularly contend with climate-related disasters, including floods and droughts. There is a growing need for high-performance buildings and construction, and for provisions to be made for climate resilience in urban planning.
India has:
As a prime location for technology and business model innovation in the past, and as the location of major construction clients, the US could be at the forefront of digital shifts in the built environment.
The US has one of the largest infrastructure investment deficits – reflecting the gap between the infrastructure needed and financing available – in the G20. Inadequate investment in transport networks has left ageing roads, railways and waterways at risk of disruption. President Donald Trump initially promised a trillion-dollar boost to infrastructure spending. Plans announced in early 2018, however, lacked detail and suggest that the federal contribution will remain too low to turn this trend around.
The US is the fourth-largest cement consumer after China, India and the EU. The US lags behind other major producers in terms of energy efficiency and its clinker ratio, which was 0.86 in 2015. However, the latter may reflect a difference in industry practices – in the US, clinker substitutes tend to be blended with cement at the point of concrete production rather than blended into cement.
Some of the world’s largest technology and logistics companies locate a bulk of their operations in the US. Walmart, Amazon, Alphabet and Apple are becoming major construction product and service consumers. A growing number of these companies are setting sustainability targets for their construction projects. Apple’s new headquarters, for example, has unique concrete slabs that act as structural features as well as serving as part of the natural air-conditioning system for the building; during construction, efforts were made to recycle concrete rubble on site.
Some US states and cities are taking a lead on green construction. California has adopted an energy goal of net-zero emissions for all new residential construction by 2020 and all new commercial construction by 2030.
Sustainable-building certification systems such as the Leadership on Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) system and ENERGYSTAR have seen considerable uptake in the US. The construction industry views green construction as a business opportunity.
The US has been at the forefront of many of the major digital disruptions and business model shifts in recent years. This innovative and disruptive potential is reflected in the cement sector, with almost 10 per cent of patents in our dataset owned by US companies and academic institutions, the second-highest share after China.
The US has: