The World Today

America’s exit strategy from Iraq is being designed and the much-vilified United Nations lined up for what many regard as the poisoned chalice. In Iraq, separate Sunni and Shi’a insurgencies have delivered severe shocks and the Kurds are at fever pitch over independence. It’s time to think the unthinkable.

Despite all the arguments across the Atlantic and between ‘new and ‘old’ Europe, NATO seems to be the international community’s favourite answer to every problem. Not only troubleshooting the Balkans, Afghanistan, Iraq and perhaps even Israel-Palestine eventually, the organisation is now being invited by Greece to help with security for the Olympic Games.

Elections in Afghanistan have been postponed until September as a result of security worries and the low level of voter registration achieved so far. Democratic progress there might be a useful asset for American President George Bush in his re-election bid, but serious long-term international attention is needed to prevent a return to chaos and civil war.

Pakistan may well be at a crux, fifty-seven years after it was founded as the first Islamic state. The next couple of years could define its viability as a modern and cohesive nation.

Does it help to divide territories where different communities find it hard to live together? Or is this just transferring problems to the international level? As the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo and NATO struggle to keep the peace following the communal killings in the divided city of Mitrovica in March, would dividing Kosovo stabilise the Balkans? The answer depends on whether partition is regarded as a good or bad thing.

Despite the recent chaos in Iraq and the uncertain future of the country, it is clear that the post-Saddam Hussein Middle East is a very different place. There might not be peace – yet – between Israelis and Palestinians, but Libya’s decision to give up weapons of mass destruction is an indication that surprising moves and big changes are possible. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Gulf where, instead of referring to the ‘Saudi-led Arab Gulf states’, one must increasingly use the phrase ‘conservative Arab Gulf states apart from Saudi Arabia’.