Your recent research paper is ‘Transforming Belarus from a Russian asset to a buffer state for European security’. Why is Belarus so important?
Its geographical location is critical for regional security. With Russia controlling Belarus, it has more opportunities to threaten the security of Ukraine and the three bordering NATO countries – Poland, Latvia and Lithuania. Politically distancing Belarus from Russia will make the whole region safer. The invasion of Ukraine in 2022 that started from Belarus shows how the Kremlin can use Belarus to enhance the operational reach, range and accuracy of its weapon systems.
What factors have pushed Belarus closer to Russia?
Since Aliaksandr Lukashenka became head of state in 1994, Belarus has gone through several cycles of freezing and warming relations with the European Union and the United States. In 2020, when Lukashenka stole the election and began to repress protesters on a massive scale, the West introduced sanctions against the regime, which were further intensified in 2022.
Its economy took a significant hit, but in 2023 it began to grow again quite substantially, largely due to Russian support. They provided Belarus with cheaper oil and gas and allowed Belarusian companies to move into the gaps left by western companies in Russia. Lukashenka is driven by his own desire to rule indefinitely, so his foreign policy ideology is quite flexible. Even though he is a co-aggressor in the war against Ukraine, he is trying to sell a vision that his military interests are distinct from those of Russia while at the same time showing the West that it’s possible to change his position.