
1. Introduction
The US has played a crucial role in shaping the global trade system since the end of the Second World War. With its allies in Europe, North America and Asia, as well as elsewhere, the US led efforts to remove trade barriers and to set up the global and regional trade architecture. However, this leadership has waned in recent years, not least because anti-trade sentiment among the American public is on the rise.
During the 2016 presidential election campaign, both the Republican and Democratic candidates tapped into the public’s growing concerns regarding free-trade agreements.1 Neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton expressed willingness to move the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) forward. Moreover, Trump threatened to renegotiate or withdraw from existing arrangements, including the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and to impose new tariffs on imports, particularly from China and Mexico.
A more protectionist US that is no longer willing to lead on global trade liberalization will have important implications both domestically and for its partners worldwide.
It should be noted that the backlash against the prevailing liberal trade order is not unique to the US, with growing scepticism towards free-trade agreements being expressed in major European countries such as Germany and France. But a more protectionist US that is no longer willing to lead on global trade liberalization will have important implications both domestically and for its partners worldwide.
After setting out the historical, economic and political context of contemporary US trade policy, this paper examines the reasons underlying the current US antagonism towards free-trade deals, and the extent to which public concerns about the impact of trade are legitimate. It sets out the likely constraints on President Trump’s protectionist trade agenda, and assesses what is in store for US policy under his administration. The potential domestic and wider geostrategic implications of this new, ‘America first’ trade policy are examined, including the international economic and strategic effects of a US withdrawal from ‘mega-regional’ trade deals and the consequences arising from a ‘deal-making’ model of foreign relations that uses trade as a bargaining chip. In conclusion, the paper outlines how, notwithstanding the incumbent president’s apparent inward focus and protectionist rhetoric, a new framework might move the debate forward and strengthen global trade.