A man examines his ballot in front of information posters of the candidates for Ukraine’s parliamentary elections on voting day in a polling station in Kiev. Photo: Getty Images
6. Conclusion
In consolidated democracies it is political parties that drive elite renewal. They recruit and socialize new political elites, which learn to interpret and aggregate the demands and preferences of citizens as societies evolve and transform. By contrast, political parties in young democracies such as those of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine hamper this process. This has implications for the sustainability of the democratic process in post-communist societies.
First, political parties in these states are ineffective as mechanisms of elite renewal and democratic consolidation. They fail to push forward competitive and competent political leaders, despite the new faces that stand as party candidates at each election. Parties have never adopted the principle of internal competition, which has restricted elite renewal to date. New channels for bringing new political actors to frontline politics are necessary before there can be a significant positive shift in the political culture of these states.
Second, new types of elites are too few in number to promote a different mode of governance that would have a substantive impact on society. Their chances are even more diminished if, when in government, they are not able to deliver immediate change after a social uprising or revolution. Whenever the Returned Diaspora or Domestic Reformers have had a role in government they have struggled to deliver sustainable change. In all three states, there is societal fatigue with slow reforms and poor-quality governance. This might prove fertile ground for populists to capitalize on the subsequent disillusionment and make it difficult for new leaders to pursue further ‘painful’ reforms. As a result, this could endanger the prospects of the European model of good governance as the only model to be pursued in these societies.
Increasing geopolitical competition in the Eastern Partnership space may provide other development paths to the democratic one that the EU promotes in the region. The Russian Federation is especially interested in preserving hybrid regimes loyal to the Kremlin in its immediate neighbourhood, rather than stable democracies keen on closer ties to the EU. More prosperous democracies with higher standards of living would provide an alternative model of development for Russian citizens. Meanwhile, increasing interests of China, Turkey, and the Arab states in these countries may provide further alternative state models of development.
This paper has highlighted two major questions regarding the democratic transition process in the post-Soviet space: can democracy flourish without one of its central pillars – mature political parties – and how long will it take for post-Soviet states to become full-fledged democracies?
When political parties actually obstruct healthy elite renewal and undermine trust in democratic institutions, it often takes an unconventional path or channels outside the current political system for transformational political leadership and democracy to emerge. The existing framework that electoral systems provide does not encourage outsiders to join the domestic political process, particularly if they do not have significant capital and resources. Social upheavals may facilitate this process though they are infrequent, disruptive and unpredictable in nature.
Lastly, changes in political culture, behaviour and mindset require time, particularly when the logic and style of governance is so substantially different from that in the West. It takes longer to change political leadership than it does to set up new institutions. While functioning democratic institutions exist in newer EU member states, such as Hungary and Poland, their presence has not guaranteed sustainable and irreversible good governance.
Since independence, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine have yet to deliver the generational change in modes of governance anticipated by their citizens and the West. Nevertheless, there are incremental improvements. The societies of these countries and Western partners must cooperate to nurture a new generation of political actors capable of representing electorates and implementing sustainable governance reforms.