As Japan and the UK face serious challenges at home and in their respective regions, this report makes the case that a stronger relationship could advance each country’s ability to address shared global concerns.
A Japanese translation of the report is also available as a PDF via this link.
This chapter draws on the discussions from the UK–Japan Global Seminar series. It outlines the author’s thoughts on how and why the UK and Japan might work together to address the challenges to global peace and stability facing both countries and the world at large. The opinions expressed reflect the author’s personal views in a private capacity, separate from any official Japanese government position.
Political dynamics in the international arena have changed radically in recent years. A fierce struggle to preserve order is being waged at many levels – international, state and individual – between stark dichotomies of, inter alia, development versus environmental protection, national interests versus international (common) objectives, and even military solutions versus non-military alternatives. It confirms the view that the early years of the 21st century represent an era of increased tensions and contradictory pressures, and that a balanced approach towards addressing its challenges is more important than ever before.
The international landscape has been increasingly marked by extensive inter-ethnic and sectarian conflicts. Global problems such as illegal drugs, terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in certain countries, the emergence of new diseases and increasingly frequent natural disasters due to climate change, are exacerbated by the scramble for control of diminishing natural resources. All these factors threaten to put peace and stability at risk. Further complicating these global issues are emerging, often more localized phenomena such as sea piracy, financial instability, cyberterrorism, and extremist-inspired violence, combined with the ongoing political and social uncertainties surrounding Brexit, and other electoral outcomes.
If the UK and Japan are to help change the world’s historical dependence on war to resolve disputes, it is very important to revisit the concept and value of ‘preventive diplomacy’. Prevention and mitigation of both natural and human-induced disasters should be rooted in this concept and predicated on non-violent means being applied to resolving international conflicts. If such preventive measures do not work, then it is imperative to have the hard capability and strength required to step in and enforce peace where necessary, as a last resort. In the case of natural disasters, too, the application of preventive diplomacy provides a platform from which any nation or state is free to choose to cooperate with the global community, regardless of conflicting politics and ideologies.
Northeast Asia faces a number of endemic security risks with the potential to disrupt not only the immediate region, but other parts of the world as well. North Korea is a clear example.
The North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, seems unlikely to give up his country’s nuclear weapons programme and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities if his regime is to survive. Nevertheless, a historic US–North Korea Summit was held in Singapore on 12 June 2018, followed by a second – apparently unsuccessful – summit between President Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un in Hanoi in late February 2019. No one knows where this process may lead – and there are many sceptics – but the hope persists that a diplomatic solution could prevent another Korean war and the termination of North Korean nuclear weapons development (and any further deployment of ICBMs). In the context of the decades-old abductee issue,225 North Korea agreed with Japan in 2014 that a thorough investigation would be conducted. The agreement has yielded no results as yet, although there are signs that the two countries may be willing to reopen discussions on how best to resolve this humanitarian issue, as well as explore options for closer diplomatic contact.226 In the South China Sea, sovereignty of the Spratly and Paracel islands have remained a contentious issue. These islands have caused territorial disputes among six countries – China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei – ever since a UN investigation into the region’s seabed resources in the 1970s. The Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea followed a similar pattern, and were claimed by China after a similar investigation into natural seabed resources a few years beforehand. China has been extracting oil from these reserves for years, in spite of an agreement signed with Japan in 2008 aimed at joint development of the resources there.
Human security is an overriding concern for all nations. From observation of refugee camps in Jordan and elsewhere, it seems clear that the key challenge for receiving states lies in their ability to empower refugees in ways that reflect their diversity and varying needs.
There is also a critical need to empower the communities, states and nations that accept them. Jordan, with a local population of less than 7 million,227 has accepted 1.5 million Syrian refugees. Lebanon is also experiencing the same phenomenon of accepting a disproportionally huge influx of refugees in relation to the original population. Assistance in providing education and infrastructure support, including housing, is essential simply from a human security perspective, regardless of differences in race, religion or nationality.
Japan cannot just ignore the global situation despite the fact that domestically it is still grappling with the problem of 50,000 displaced people228 who continue to struggle physically and mentally as a result of the Tōhoku Earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant disaster of 2011. Japan has had painful first-hand experience of the challenges faced by those who have lost everything and remain stuck in limbo owing to events – whether natural or human-induced – that are beyond their control.
Japan can and should challenge itself to contribute more to establishing enduring peace and stability
The refugee issue needs to be brought before the UN Security Council if there is to be any hope of achieving the goal of peace and stability in the world. Security Council members need to demonstrate to extremists, wherever they are, that world leaders can and will wield their collective power in a united way. In this regard, the UK, as a permanent member of the Security Council, can work together with Japan, which served as a non-permanent member most recently in 2016–17.
With the growing prevalence of the ‘internet of things’ across all systems and networks, cybersecurity has become a major focus of shared concern. Much consideration is being given to the question of how Japan can cooperate with its UN partners in terms of preparing to face emerging threats from non-kinetic cyber and electronic warfare. Such a response requires a strategic combination of traditional security measures, employing military tools and perspectives, in tandem with the development of non-traditional security measures centred on conflict prevention and resolution, but extending into the realm of cybersecurity and applications of artificial intelligence. This means promoting regional confidence-building measures, as well as implementing a range of economic, political and humanitarian security objectives that take account of our shared and growing dependence on new technologies. Given the reality of state-to-state cyberattacks that require new deterrence strategies and approaches to conflict management, it has never been more necessary to clearly define the guidelines for applying these technologies in both military and non-military areas.
Addressing the UN General Assembly in September 2013, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced a new security approach for Japan, which he termed a ‘Proactive Contribution to Peace’.229 This was a very timely message in that it outlined the approach he planned to take to meet the new emerging global threats to peace. Japan can and should challenge itself to contribute more to establishing enduring peace and stability, drawing on lessons from its own often painful history.
There are two main reasons why UK–Japan cooperation is increasingly necessary in the interests of maintaining global order. First, Japan’s influence in the international community had undeniably begun to fade by 2010, in comparison with that of China and South Korea, not least because of Japan’s loss of economic competitiveness. International expectations of Japan as a global economic player, and even general cultural interest in Japan, have declined since that period, especially in Europe. Since Abe took office in 2012, however, his approach to economic policy – dubbed ‘Abenomics’230 – has shown slow but steady progress in reversing this downward trend. The ratio of registered job vacancies to job applications had reached 1.48 by April 2017,231 indicating that his economic policies were working well, although a stronger and more powerful ‘third arrow’232 on growth strategy and structural reform is still needed. At the same time, Japan has become politically more visible internationally because of the prime minister’s commitment to his belief that ‘diplomacy is taking a panoramic perspective of the world map’. This leaves Japan well placed to collaborate with the UK in helping the international community to seek a more positive and progressive direction.
Japan has become politically more visible internationally because of the prime minister’s commitment to his belief that ‘diplomacy is taking a panoramic perspective of the world map’
Second, the international situation has never been more fluid or more complex. It is important to recognize the rise of new players in Southeast Asia and the BRICS that are now becoming more active in world politics. International markets are changing just as the established order is becoming more unstable. Populism is on the rise, and problems persist in the eurozone. These changes represent an opportunity for new voices to step forward as world leaders able to take a new and more positive future direction in global diplomacy.
A particularly striking global shock came in June 2016 with the UK’s referendum decision to leave the EU. Subsequent developments in the presidential contests in the US and France, in which populist, nativist political forces were seen to make considerable headway – contributing to Trump’s election in the US later that year, and the progression of Marie Le Pen, the candidate of the far-right Front National, to the second round of the French presidential election in 2017 (at which she was ultimately defeated by En Marche candidate Emmanuel Macron) showed clearly that populist movements against the established order cannot be ignored. In the face of such developments, it has become even more critical that the UK and Japan cooperate closely.
Japan and the UK have actively engaged in the joint development of their defence capabilities. Their respective strengths complement each other in many ways. For example, Japan needs to develop more effective intelligence gathering and analysis capabilities, while the UK could benefit from Japanese hard technologies such as car and train production, as well as soft expertise such as its Building Standard Law and the Law Concerning Special Financial Aid for Coping with Disasters (the Disaster Law) for better disaster preparedness.
Moreover, ensuring a mutual relationship of trust will have a significant impact for both Japan and the UK; for instance, in the creation of a new non-military alliance, very different in nature from the alliance struck in 1902.233 Both partners have the opportunity to inject their own unique strengths into the alliance, and this would send a powerful message to the US (which is currently losing much ground in terms of its international leadership role), as well as to Russia (whose return to the international community as an influential actor would bring huge benefits – if it can address the grave concerns regarding its violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine). Then, ideally, all four states would be able to work together to eliminate the danger of ISIS expansion, and cooperate to address the security challenge of North Korea. While the White House remains officially optimistic, it is unclear whether the direct talks between the US and North Korea – hindered by the need for each side to ‘save face’ – will move towards a resolution that benefits the international community.
Democratic countries are at a critical juncture in terms of implementing traditional political concepts of democracy. They will have to work together to agree a renewed definition that will, in practice, enable a more effective application of democracy on a global scale in these uncertain times. The rise of populism in the US and the erratic behaviour of the current US leadership have made it all the more imperative that Japan and the UK should demonstrate calm, democratic leadership to which the world can look for reassurance. US signals of support to the UK after Brexit, and Japan’s historically strong relationship with the US, provide a foundation for collaboration going forward. Clearly, Japan has a strong vested interest in the role the US will play in regional security, and in turn needs to play a bridging role between the US, China and North Korea, with diplomatic support from the UK.
The UK, through its ties to the Commonwealth, has maintained strong links with South and Southeast Asia. The Commonwealth organization is a remarkable achievement, and Japan feels great respect for the UK in its handling of post-colonial relations, especially in the light of its own difficult and politically sensitive experience in attempting to maintain friendly relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. Notwithstanding its post-war ODA activity, Japan continues to struggle with anti-Japanese sentiment in this region. There is no question that the democratic growth and stability of ASEAN countries are critical to the maintenance of regional security, and the influence and experience of the UK in establishing a democratic legacy could contribute greatly to the success of this aim.
Thoughtful collaboration between Japan and the UK, as well as with the US, Australia and New Zealand, will be essential in order to minimize the risk of conflict over the Spratly and Paracel islands in the South China Sea. In addition to cooperation between the countries involved in the dispute, it is also imperative to build consensus with ASEAN countries around this issue. Every state must, moreover, be able to navigate freely on the high seas. This is particularly vital to Japan for commercial reasons, but it is also important to the US and its other allies in order to maintain free access for regional security purposes.
Japan, the UK, the US and South Korea, along with other European countries that still have diplomatic relations with Pyongyang, must cooperate to avoid accidental conflicts. The UK, and other European countries, should continue, together with Japan, to facilitate dialogue and, where appropriate, engagement with North Korea.
Regarding the Middle East, Japan and the UK can encourage the US to take a more balanced approach in order to reach a fair resolution of the conflict between Israel and Palestine. The UK has demonstrated its concern and willingness to participate in the process of maintaining peace and stability in the region, and there are many aspects on which Japan can cooperate with the UK as well as with the US, Sweden, Norway and Canada. If a two-state solution can still be achieved as part of a comprehensive peace settlement between Israel and Palestine, many other associated problems, including with Iran and Saudi Arabia, could potentially be easier to resolve.
The international community clearly understands that it must unite in order to defeat ISIS. Japan and the UK have a common interest in working with other actors, including the US and Russia, in confronting the challenge of ISIS. Russia has been heavily involved in reducing its power. This success has shifted global concern towards ways of approaching the Russian-backed Assad regime in Syria, which continues to be a concern shared by Japan, the UK and the US. The democratic community cannot admit Russia as a member of any working group without first seeing its withdrawal from Ukraine.
Japan, the UK and the US can work together to see Japan included as an extended member of NATO. In Japan, the laws to expand the role of its armed forces overseas were revised in 2015 amid much controversy, but the changes now enhance the capacity of its Self-Defense Forces (SDF), in principle, to serve potentially as a member of NATO in a wider role. Japan may be free to revisit the discussion of NATO expansion, as a democratic nation in Northeast Asia that is ready to contribute more directly to promoting both regional stability and security in other parts of the world.
Japan, the UK and the US all have an important contribution to make towards improving global information security and tackling cyberterrorism – or, perhaps more accurately, cyberwarfare. Cyberattacks originating in particular from China, Russia and North Korea have become increasingly aggressive. How the international community should respond to and defend itself against such attacks, which target both technology and confidential diplomatic and defence information, is a critical question that must be urgently addressed.
Intelligence is the key to the survival of every nation in the 21st century, both economically and politically. Even if there is no immediate solution, the goal must be to establish universally accepted international rules by which each nation can securely manage and defend its own intellectual assets and property, as well as guidelines to govern future applications of artificial intelligence and robotics, especially related to the military.
Economic growth lies at the heart of stability for every developed country. In recent years, growth has relied on globalization, which has created an increasingly interconnected world. These linkages are extremely complex. The rise in populism in many countries is symptomatic of the fear that these complexities can provoke. The impacts of climate change, food and water insecurity, the reality of dwindling natural resources in the face of global population growth, and the displacement of populations arising from these factors, are all difficult to address. The US, the world’s largest economy, has a responsibility to act as the leader of the international community from an ever-deepening and widening perspective. Japan and the UK can and should work strategically with the US to smooth its path back to this role.
Japan and the UK should work together to encourage the US to recognize the negative effects of protectionism and should seek to encourage the US to rethink the underlying mechanisms of economics and trade as soon as possible.
The Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between Japan and the EU entered into force in February 2019.234 It will be beneficial for the UK to develop its own post-Brexit trade relations with Japan. One option is for the UK to become a member of CPTPP. It will also be important for the UK to resist becoming trapped in restrictive bilateral trade talks with the US, where the economic leverage of the latter might be used in a way that undercuts the UK’s economic interests. Engagement with CPTPP and its signatory countries, most notably Japan, that remain committed to mutual and shared legal standards and the need to avoid trade protectionism, is likely to be in the national interest of the UK.
While the UK has struggled to establish a new relationship with the EU, Japan has maintained very good relations with all European countries. Close relationships with the various royal families are very important for Japan, and there is no question that its relations with the UK’s royal family are particularly close. Japan is waiting to see the long-term results of the UK’s negotiations with the EU over Brexit, particularly the uncertainty surrounding the movement of people, goods, finance and legal contracts. Japan is prepared to support both the UK and the EU through this period, in the hope that good relations will be maintained on all sides. At present, the UK appears isolated within Europe. A robust UK–Japan non-military alliance should therefore work well as one approach to smoothing future relations between the UK and the EU.
All ASEAN nations are undergoing rapid economic development based on infrastructure support through Japanese ODA. However, relations between these countries and Japan remain sensitive as a result of their experiences during the Second World War. Recently, as noted above, China’s economic support for the region has grown substantially, particularly for the states that lay claim to the Spratly and Paracel islands.
The UK has good access to ASEAN states. It has an opportunity for much closer economic and trade relations through a joint approach with Japan, which has a particularly good relationship with Myanmar, through both Aung San Suu Kyi and the military government. Although the UK has kept its distance from the latter, supporting the development of Myanmar in cooperation with Japan would provide the UK with the opportunity to deepen its engagement with ASEAN countries while potentially keeping open the door to an improvement in the political, economic and social conditions of all the inhabitants of Myanmar.
In order to promote further constructive collaboration between Japan and the UK, the below three projects could benefit both, as well as contribute to regional and global economic health and stability. These would be part of a timely new UK–Japan alliance for disaster prevention and peacebuilding, based on ‘best in class’ British diplomacy and first-class Japanese technology:
Nearly 75 years after the end of the Second World War, the UN remains the only truly worldwide organization. Its membership has expanded to 193 countries, from 51 at the time of its establishment in 1945. An upgraded management system is therefore required in order to meet current needs. Moreover, Japan – which has been a UN member since 1956 – is still counted as an ‘enemy state’ by the wording of the UN Charter. This needs to be rectified given the role that Japan now plays in the global community.
Empowering the UN is essential. Given the prevalence and persistence of regional conflicts, the need to empower UN peacebuilding operations is clear. Japan and the UK can and should aim for a comprehensive approach to peace that begins with conflict prevention and follows through in the final phase to UN actions based on preventive diplomacy, as highlighted in the Report of the UN’s High-Level Independent Panel on Peace Operations led by José Ramos-Horta in 2015.235
Japan and the UK can and should aim for a comprehensive approach to peace that begins with conflict prevention
Japan and the UK have much in common, but also bring very different strengths to the realms of politics, economics, security, society and each country’s collective mentality. It is clear that the two countries can find many fruitful avenues for cooperation that will contribute to raising the consciousness of the international community. The most pressing issues can perhaps be best understood through the three concepts listed below:
A simple glance at the world map of conflicts highlights the threats to global security. At the same time, natural disasters such as earthquakes, droughts and floods, to name but a few, are increasing year-on-year. In 2017 alone, losses caused by natural disasters amounted to an estimated $306 billion.236 Therefore, we have to consider how to ensure societies’ resilience, from human life to infrastructure. The theory of preventive diplomacy can be applied to the prevention of natural and human-induced disasters.
The UK and Japan must actively seek out common interests in order to avoid conflicts and wars, especially in the cyber and space domains, and equally through their shared interest in the world’s fragile natural resources, including the Arctic and Antarctic regions.
Limiting the spread of conventional and strategic weapons is vital as new and increased threats to international order arise. The struggle to offset these threats is being waged on international, state and even individual levels in a context where, despite mutual interests, common values increasingly risk being undermined.
Through the UK–Japan Global Seminar series, speakers who represent the best and brightest of both countries have shared many diverse perspectives. In doing so, they have offered a firm base from which both countries can move to the next stage in meeting global challenges. The value that this seminar has brought far exceeds initial expectations. The world community deserves and expects this kind of practical effort to be run on behalf of the people of both Japan and the UK – an effort that is open to the public and run by NGOs in cooperation with representatives from the political arena. The UK–Japan Global Seminar series, and similar events, can ensure that global issues are addressed strategically and thoughtfully for the global good.
