The short-term technological predictions of the sources consulted for this research paper primarily converged around the emergence of superconducting qubits as an established basis for a quantum computer. The debate on the emergence of some kind of ‘quantum supremacy’ moment continues to rage fiercely with a lack of a clear resolution in sight. As mentioned in the first section of this paper, Google posited such a claim in September 2019, which IBM later challenged. This paper recommends that subject-matter experts continue both to monitor the technological developments in the field of superconducting quantum computing – as well as the debate surrounding it – and to scrutinize how ‘quantum supremacy’ is being defined.
European quantum communications infrastructure developments should continue to be observed, as progress is expected in 2021, though technological obstacles still remain (improving quantum repeaters, amplifiers and single-photon detection). Progress in quantum computing and communication will present an increasing challenge for the secure encryption of sensitive information, which may necessitate a shift towards a classical computing-based ‘quantum-resistant’ encryption, or possibly even secure communication through quantum key distribution.
The main focus in the short term for quantum technology collaboration between the EU and the US is likely to be confined primarily to basic scientific research, which could be improved by increasing funding for quantum start-up representatives to attend conferences in the US. While there is also the possibility of some collaboration on quantum communications standards, growing securitization of the field is increasingly inhibiting this direction. It is vital that all opportunities for cooperation are maximized in order to increase industrial collaboration. On the European side, this paper strongly recommends closer liaison between the EU Policy and Outreach Partnership in the USA (EUPOPUSA) and the EU Quantum Flagship, which has already engaged in consultation with the US administration on collaboration opportunities.
