Greenhouse gas emissions from burning US-sourced woody biomass in the EU and UK

Increased use of forest biomass for energy and associated impacts on the climate

Research paper Updated 17 October 2022 ISBN: 978 1 78413 493 8

Drax Power Station in Yorkshire, UK, illuminated at night

Duncan Brack

Associate Fellow, Environment and Society Programme

Dr Richard Birdsey

Senior Scientist, Woodwell Climate Research Center

Dr Wayne Walker

Carbon Program Director and Associate Scientist, Woodwell Climate Research Center

Existing national and intergovernmental policy frameworks treat forest biomass as zero-carbon at the point of combustion and grant it access to financial and regulatory support. Consumption of wood pellets is growing rapidly as a result. Yet these frameworks do not take full account of the contribution of biomass burning to increased carbon emissions.

This paper examines one particular source of woody biomass: pellets sourced from the US that are burnt for electricity and combined heat and power in the EU and UK. Accounting for emissions from their combustion, their supply chain, forgone removals of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere due to the harvesting of live trees and emissions from the decay of roots and unused logging residues left in the forest after harvest, it finds that US-sourced wood pellets burnt in the UK were responsible for 13 million–16 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions in 2019, equivalent to the emissions from between 6 million and 7 million passenger vehicles. This makes it less likely that the UK will achieve its climate targets.

A summary of the research findings is also available as a PDF download.

04 Projected growth of biomass energy and associated emissions in the EU and UK

The consumption of US wood pellets in the EU and UK is likely to grow to the mid-2020s and then fall, unless new demand arises from BECCS plants and new coal-to-biomass conversions.

This chapter discusses the possible growth of demand for biomass for energy, and specifically for wood pellets from the US, in the EU27 and the UK. It focuses mainly on the use of biomass for electricity generation, which is currently the main use of imported US wood pellets in both.

4.1 Projections for the EU27

Power and heat

In April 2021 the EU agreed to increase its greenhouse gas emissions reduction target from 40 per cent to 55 per cent (based on 1990 levels) by 2030. Corresponding changes in EU policy frameworks were announced in July 2021 in the ‘Fit for 55’ package, including an increase in the renewable energy target from 32 per cent to 40 per cent by 2030.66 While further growth in the use of biomass for power generation is expected to follow, its rate is projected to be lower than that of other technologies, such as solar and wind, owing to their more rapidly falling costs.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), for example, projects bioenergy (including biogas and bioliquids) power capacity in the EU growing from 37.1 GW in 2019 to 42.3 GW in 2025 – a 14 per cent increase. In its accelerated scenario, the figure is 44.1 GW in 2025, a 19 per cent increase.67 This is a markedly slower rate of growth than for offshore wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) (both projected to more than double over the same period) and onshore wind (40 per cent increase). As the IEA observed, the increasing tendency to use technology-neutral auctions and other support mechanisms for renewable power has disadvantaged bioenergy, because of the ‘generally higher generation costs for bioenergy compared with wind or utility solar PV technologies, and limited cost reduction potential for bioenergy technologies’.68 (Bioenergy may have some additional advantage as a dispatchable power source.)

A 2020 analysis of performance against EU member states’ National Renewable Energy Action Plans supports this conclusion, showing a slowing down of growth in biomass electricity since 2015.69 In contrast, growth in biomass heat was ahead of target until 2017, when it began to slow.

The European Commission’s Communication on ‘Stepping up Europe’s 2030 climate ambition’, published in September 2020, also supports the conclusion of limited growth in bioenergy use in the short and medium term:

Projected increases in bioenergy use by 2030 are limited compared to today. To ensure the land use sink can continue to strengthen and improve, biomass for energy use in the EU should be produced sustainably, and environmental impacts should be minimised. To limit impact on biodiversity, the use of whole trees and food and feed crops for energy production – produced in the EU or imported – should be minimised. Any unsustainable intensification of forest harvesting for bioenergy purposes should be avoided. Instead, bioenergy production should come from better use of biomass wastes and residues and a sustainable cultivation of energy crops […]70

The impact assessment accompanying the Communication foresees further long-term growth, however, including a doubling in biomass energy (of all kinds) by 2050 (compared to a sevenfold increase in other renewables).71 This assessment projects a slight fall in residential sector use of bioenergy, but a doubling in the use for electricity production, including through BECCS (see below).72 Figure 5 shows the scale and breakdown in bioenergy use by 2030 and 2050 under the scenarios analysed.

Figure 5. Use of bioenergy by sector and by scenario

— Scenarios – BSL: based on existing (pre-2020) 2030 targets; REG: regulatory-based measures achieving 55 per cent GHG [greenhouse gas] reductions; CPRICE, a carbon-pricing based scenario, achieving 55 per cent GHG reductions; MIX: combined approach of REG and CPRICE, achieving 55 per cent GHG reductions; MIX-50: a combined approach, achieving 50 per cent GHG reductions; ALLBNK: based on MIX and further intensifying fuel mandates for aviation and maritime sectors.

The bulk of the biomass feedstock is expected to be sourced domestically, from agricultural and forest wastes and residues, and energy crops: ‘The use of harvested stemwood increases slightly compared to 2015 level while the increase in the sustainable extraction of forest residues is more pronounced.’73 It should be noted that the projected growth in the use of energy crops is huge – representing more than a 20-fold increase between 2030 and 2050.74 If this increase fails to take place – and existing policy frameworks do not support it – the demand for forest carbon could be significantly higher. If the consumption of energy crops does increase to this extent, there could be significant consequences for land-use change and emissions both in the EU and outside (if energy crop biomass is imported), with potentially severe consequences for forests.75

As a consequence of this increase in demand for biomass, imports increase from about 6.5 mtoe in 2020 to about 8 mtoe in 2030 (depending on scenario) and then to as much as 14 mtoe in 2050. In almost all scenarios, solid biomass accounts for 80–90 per cent of imports (see Figure 6).

Figure 6. Imports of bioenergy

The impact assessment does not discuss the origin of the imports, but the US seems likely to remain an important source in the short and medium term. It is the second largest wood pellet producer in the world after the EU, producing 8.6 million tonnes in 2019 (22 per cent of total world production).76 For comparison, the next largest producers were Canada (3.0 million tonnes), Vietnam (2.5 million tonnes) and Russia (1.6 million tonnes).

In addition, the development of domestic supply faces a number of constraints, including increasing concern over the size of the EU’s forest carbon sink. According to European Commission figures, the EU’s LULUCF sector grew from an annual net sink of about 250 MtCO₂e to more than 300 MtCO₂e between 1990 and 2010. More recently, however, it has seen significant losses from the impacts of increased economic use and the adverse effects of climate change, leading to a reduction to 263 MtCO₂e by 2018.77 While sourcing residues and wastes in place of whole trees would help to reduce the impact, policy frameworks in EU member states largely do not incentivize this. In applying sustainability criteria, they do not distinguish between categories of feedstock on the basis of their carbon payback periods, and in any case, definitions of feedstock categories cannot be relied upon to distinguish between residues and whole trees (see Chapter Two).

Industry projections for the future size of the wood pellet trade tend to support the conclusion that growth is likely to be relatively strong up to the mid-2020s, but more limited thereafter. Analysis by the FutureMetrics consultancy for Bioenergy Europe forecast that ‘growth in the EU and UK in the demand for industrial wood pellets, under current policy, is expected to plateau in 2022 at about 20.3 million tonnes per year’ (from just under 15 million tonnes in 2018).78 The main sources of demand growth were expected to be the UK (from 8.2 million tonnes in 2018 to 11.2 million tonnes by 2022) and Netherlands (from 1.2 million tonnes in 2018 to 3.4 million tonnes by 2022); Denmark was expected to experience lower growth in demand (from 3.15 million tonnes in 2018 to 3.35 million tonnes by 2022) and Belgium none (its rate remaining constant at 1.05 million tonnes).

Demand for wood pellets for heating (residential and commercial) was expected to grow more slowly, from about 13.5 million tonnes in 2018 to 17.5 million tonnes in 2024.79 This growth was accounted for mainly by Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy and Sweden. With the exception of Denmark and Italy, none of those countries are large importers. Denmark is considered specifically below, in the section on key member states. Italy imports mainly from within the EU, with smaller quantities sourced from Brazil, Russia, Ukraine and the US.

There are two reasons, however, to think that future demand for biomass in the EU may be larger than these projections estimate.

Coal-to-biomass conversions and replacements

An important potential source of further demand for biomass – which is not considered explicitly in the European Commission’s 2020 Communication or accompanying impact assessment – is the conversion of coal-fired power stations to biomass or their replacement by new biomass installations. An analysis by the non-governmental organization Ember in 2019 suggested that coal-to-biomass conversions carried out up to 2019 accounted for about 25 per cent of EU demand for biomass for power and heat.80 Member states’ climate strategies almost invariably include the phasing out of coal. Depending on the policy framework, it may prove more economic to convert former coal stations to biomass (possibly via an interim stage of co-firing) than to decommission them altogether, notwithstanding the worsening competitive position of biomass versus other renewable power technologies.

The Ember analysis looked at companies’ proposals (up to November 2019) for future conversions and assessed the likelihood of their proceeding. Ember concluded that proposed substitutions could increase biomass consumption by up to 607 petajoules (PJ) – 14.5 mtoe/169 TWh – equivalent to about 50 per cent of current EU biomass consumption in power and heating plants. If this consumption was all supplied by wood pellets, it would require an additional 36 million tonnes of pellets per year. (By comparison, world production in 2018 totalled 39 million tonnes, while total EU27 consumption of wood pellets in 2018 was 17.8 million tonnes). In reality, the level of conversions is not likely to be that high, but even if only those conversions in the ‘likely’ and ‘very likely’ categories in the analysis go ahead, this would together account for one-quarter of the total, requiring an additional 9 million tonnes of pellets a year. (See Figure 7, which includes for comparison the output of existing coal-to-biomass conversions.)

Figure 7. Potential biomass consumption growth in the former EU28 due to coal-to-biomass substitutions in coal power plants, grouped by project risk

— Source: Ember (2019), ‘Playing with Fire: An assessment of company plans to burn biomass in EU coal power stations’.

The level of conversions may in fact be higher than the report suggests. In July 2020 Germany adopted a new Coal Exit law, which aims for the complete phase-out of coal-fired power generation by 2038. This will require the closure or conversion of 44 GW of capacity.81 The accompanying support package of €40 billion includes support for coal-to-biomass conversion. As noted in Chapter Two, in July 2021 the European Commission proposed the extension of support for the use of forest biomass in electricity-only installations in coal-dependent regions after 2026.

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)

The other reason to expect potentially increasing demand in the future is the possible development of BECCS. This term refers to a set of technologies and processes through which the carbon emissions from burning biomass for energy are captured before release into the atmosphere and stored in underground reservoirs. If this biomass energy is assumed to be carbon-neutral (see Chapter Two), BECCS accordingly is considered to result in net negative emissions, as the accompanying carbon sequestered by biomass is permanently stored.82 (It is not clear how negative emissions generated by countries importing biomass should be accounted for against national targets – whether in the consumer or producer country or shared between them.)

Although BECCS has yet to be demonstrated at a commercial scale, it features in the EU’s forward projections for climate strategies. The impact assessment accompanying the European Commission’s 2020 Communication mentions BECCS primarily as an option post-2030. (This is one of the main reasons why the amount of power generated from bioenergy increases sharply in the 2050 projections in Figure 5). It is possible, however, that BECCS projects could be developed earlier, though the first deployments appear more likely to take place outside the EU, in Norway and the UK (see Section 4.2). In Sweden, the energy company Stockholm Exergi opened a BECCS test facility at Värtan in December 2019 and aims to complete a full-scale BECCS plant by 2025.83

Key member states

As noted in Chapter Three, the main EU importers of wood pellets from the US in recent years have been the UK, Belgium and Denmark, though imports to the Netherlands rose sharply in 2019. (The UK is considered separately in Section 4.2.) The potential development of new biomass stations, particularly coal-to-biomass conversions, mean that markets for US pellets could also emerge in other EU member states.84

Belgium has imported an average of 550,000 tonnes of wood pellets from the US every year since 2013. US-sourced pellets have comprised more than half of the country’s total imports of wood pellets over that period. Most of this is consumed by two coal conversion plants: the Max Green power station burns 700,000–800,000 tonnes a year, all imported, and, until its closure in September 2020, the Les Awirs station burnt about 400,000 tonnes a year, just over one-third of which was imported.85 Max Green is due to be decommissioned by 2030. The country’s National Climate and Energy Plan envisages biomass-generated electricity (currently accounting for about 20 per cent of total renewable electricity in Belgium) steadily falling to 2030, while biomass-generated heat remains roughly constant, albeit falling as a proportion of total heat produced from renewables.86 Imports of wood pellets therefore seem likely to fall.

In July 2020 the Social and Economic Council of the Netherlands, an independent advisory board to the Dutch government, concluded that sustainably produced biomass was too scarce to use for the production of heat or electricity and that support should be withdrawn.

Denmark has historically been one of the larger users of biomass in the EU as a proportion of total energy consumption, both for electricity and heat, particularly in CHP stations, which in recent years have gradually been converted from coal and gas to biomass. In 2019 solid biomass accounted for 19 per cent of Denmark’s gross inland energy consumption, but this proportion is projected to fall slightly to 18 per cent in 2030 and to 17 per cent in 2040.87 Biomass is expected to be used increasingly in technologies which are more difficult to electrify, such as heavy goods vehicles and shipping.88 Overall, imports of wood pellets seem unlikely to increase significantly, but their sources may change. While the Baltic states and Russia are currently more significant suppliers to Denmark, in recent years imports from the US have increased rapidly, from 94,000 tonnes in 2016 to 623,000 tonnes in 2018 and 506,000 tonnes in 2019.

Imports of wood pellets to the Netherlands increased sharply in 2019, to 1.2 million tonnes, from an average of 350,000 tonnes over the previous two years. Most of those pellets were supplied from within the EU, but in 2019 130,000 tonnes were sourced from the US, an increase from almost nothing the previous year. Further increases in imports can be expected in the short term, as four coal plants were scheduled to start co-firing with biomass between 2018 and 2020. Three of those – with a combined maximum consumption volume of 3.3 million tonnes of pellets a year 89 – may convert fully to burning biomass. Government subsidies to support co-firing are available for a period of eight years. However, the future of biomass power in the Netherlands is unclear. In July 2020 the Social and Economic Council of the Netherlands, an independent advisory board to the Dutch government, concluded that sustainably produced biomass was too scarce to use for the production of heat or electricity and that support should be withdrawn.90 Nevertheless, in December PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency concluded that, due to the lack of progress with developing alternative sources of renewable heat, the rapid phase-out of woody biomass for heat networks was risky.91 In February 2021 the Dutch parliament voted to ban subsidies for future biomass plants, though this ban was not applied to existing agreements.92 While biomass consumption for power seems likely to be in decline by 2030, the future level of demand for biomass for heat is not clear.

As examined in the 2019 Ember analysis, other potential coal-to-biomass conversions seem likely or very likely to go ahead in the Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Poland, Spain and Sweden. Many of these countries have significant production of wood fuel, including wood pellets, and some are net exporters. Any increase in their consumption seems more likely to be met by increased domestic production, by imports from other EU member states (particularly the Baltic states) or by imports from Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, than by imports from the US. Any reduction in the availability of pellets from any of these sources as a result of increased domestic consumption, however, could prompt increased demand for pellets from other sources – e.g. Canada and the  US – in countries such as Belgium, the Netherlands and the UK.

Projected emissions associated with the use of US-sourced biomass in the EU27

Imports of wood pellets from the US to the EU27 totalled 1.3 million tonnes in 2019. As discussed above, further growth in demand seems likely in the Netherlands until the late 2020s at least, although demand should fall again by 2030. Denmark and Germany may also see a rise in imports, particularly if Germany converts more coal plants to biomass. For the purpose of estimating emissions, we therefore use projected figures of 3.5 million tonnes imported in 2025 and 2.0 million tonnes in 2030.

The associated emissions are included below in Table 4. Calculated as explained in Section 3.5 and the Annex, these take into account emissions from combustion and the supply chain, forgone removals of CO₂ from the atmosphere due to the harvest of live trees and emissions from the decay of roots and unused logging residues left in the forest after harvest: between 1.5 million tonnes (scenario 1) and 3.6 million tonnes (scenario 2). (Some of these could change in the future. It is possible, for example, that the supply-chain emissions per weight of pellets could fall with the decarbonization of the energy used in pelletizing and transport, though these are difficult sectors to deal with. This is, however, a minor component of the total.)

Table 4. Projected estimates of EU27 emissions from US-sourced biomass

Imports and emissions	2019	2025	2030
Wood pellet imports from US (kt)	1,295	3,500	2,000
Emissions – Scenario 1 estimate (ktCO₂)	3,086	8,337	4,764
Emissions – Scenario 2 estimate (ktCO₂)	3,668	9,912	5,664

Source: Compiled by the authors.

4.2 Projections for the UK

As noted in Chapter Three, the UK is currently the largest global user of wood pellets, consuming about 8.5 million tonnes a year. Almost all of this is imported.

Power generation

In the UK, government support for large-scale biomass for electricity is currently delivered through two mechanisms, the Renewables Obligation and the Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme which has now replaced it (though operators will continue to receive support under the Renewables Obligation for 20 years; the last payments will be made in 2037). Both deliver subsidies to renewable power generators, with the funding deriving from levies placed on electricity consumers’ bills.

Both schemes have been used to support coal-to-biomass conversions, as transitional mechanisms in the decarbonization of the power sector. This includes the conversion of the four units at Drax now burning biomass. As noted in Chapter Three, Drax consumes about 7 million tonnes of wood pellets a year, 4.5 million tonnes of which are sourced from the US. EPH’s Lynemouth Power Station, a conversion from an old coal-fired installation, began burning biomass in June 2018. With a capacity of 420 MW, Lynemouth is expected to consume an estimated 1.4 million–1.5 million tonnes of wood pellets a year. At least 800,000 tonnes will be supplied by the US-based pellet company Enviva, under a contract signed in 2016.93 Government support for all conversion projects is scheduled to come to an end on 31 March 2027. In November 2020 the UK government announced that future CfD auctions would exclude new coal-to-biomass conversions.94

Both of the government’s support mechanisms have also been used to support new dedicated biomass plants. Only one of these plants – MGT Teesside Ltd’s Tees Renewable Energy Plant (TeesREP) – is intended to burn wood pellets. (The others, which are much smaller, burn a variety of wood and agricultural feedstocks.) TeesREP, a new, dedicated biomass-powered CHP plant, is the largest dedicated biomass station in the world, with a capacity of 299 MW. Its CfD is due to last for 15 years from the commissioning date. Although the plant was expected to start generating in 2018, construction was delayed initially for unexplained problems, including mass redundancies among the construction workforce in the second half of 2019, and then by the coronavirus pandemic. In early February 2021, however, local media reported that the station would be commissioned within weeks following the arrival of a shipment of 50,000 tonnes of wood pellets from the US.95 The plant’s expected start date has been repeatedly delayed and at the time of publication was 18 October 2021, though this remained under review.96

The plant will be able to burn a large range of solid biomass feedstocks, but is expected to be supplied mainly by wood pellets. Its estimated annual consumption is at least 1.0 million – 1.2 million tonnes, plus an estimated 200,000 tonnes of wood chips, potentially supplied from local sources.97 In 2016 MGT Teesside Ltd entered into a sourcing contract with Enviva for 1.0 million tonnes of pellets per year, to be sourced in the US.98 A report from December 2020 suggests that MGT has agreed a 15-year supply contract with Enviva for 1.3 million tonnes per year of wood pellets.99

Table 5 adds these likely consumption figures together to project a potential total annual UK consumption of 11.0 million tonnes from the year in which TeesREP starts operating until the end of 2026. This represents a 33 per cent increase from 2018. Consumption of US-sourced wood pellets is projected to rise to 7.0 million tonnes a year, representing a 43 per cent increase from 2018.

Table 5. Actual 2018 and projected future consumption of wood pellets for power generation in the UK

Source of demand	Consumption (million tonnes/year)
	2018, all sources	2026 projected, all sources	2018, US-sourced	2026 projected, US-sourced
Drax	7.1	7.1	4.5	4.5
Lynemouth	–	1.4	–	0.8
TeesREP	–	1.3	–	1.3
Other uses, imports	0.9	0.9	0.4	0.4
Other uses, UK production	0.3	0.3	–	–
Total	8.3	11.0	4.9	7.0

Source: Compiled by the authors.

The calculation assumes that consumption in Drax remains roughly constant at the 2018–19 level, while adding projected consumption figures for Lynemouth and TeesREP and an estimate of other UK uses calculated using the FAOSTAT and Eurostat data cited in Section 3.3. In reality, some domestic production may be used in the three power stations – though Drax consumed no UK-produced wood pellets in 2018–19. One industry forecast suggests that total UK consumption will reach 11.2 million tonnes (excluding use for heat) from 2020 onwards, supporting this projection.100

Further growth in the use of wood pellets for power generation seems highly unlikely, thanks mainly to the changes in the UK sustainability criteria for future contracts discussed in Chapter Two. Whether power generation at Drax will come to a complete end in March 2027 is, however, an open question. The withdrawal of about 7 per cent of total UK electricity capacity could have significant implications for energy security, depending on developments elsewhere in demand and new capacity.

Other sources of demand

There are three further potential sources of demand for biomass use for energy in the UK.

First, the capacity market – the back-up mechanism ensuring security of electricity supply. Capacity providers bid, in a competitive auction, for payments to ensure they maintain enough capacity to meet demand in times of system stress. To date, most of the contracts have been won by large old coal, gas and nuclear power plants, though more recently, smaller renewable generators, interconnectors and demand response systems have also been successful. Plants in receipt of other forms of government support are not eligible to compete for contracts, but Drax and Lynemouth would be able to once their existing contracts end in March 2027. The fact that the plants would have to maintain stocks of wood pellets ready to use may limit this option: wood pellets cannot be stored indefinitely as absorption of water from the atmosphere dissolves the binding agent. Nevertheless, if Drax can drive down its costs sufficiently to allow it to generate power continuously without its current levels of subsidy, participation in the capacity market may become viable.

The UK has made much less progress in introducing renewable heat than electricity. It is currently consulting on successor schemes to the Renewable Heat Initiative, which will close to new applicants in 2021/22.

Second, demand for wood pellets for heat. Government support for biomass heat is currently provided through the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI). Similar to a feed-in tariff scheme, the RHI pays participants for each unit of heat generated. By September 2020 some 62 per cent of the heat generated since the start of the scheme in 2011 had derived from biomass.101 Like the other support mechanisms examined above, sustainability criteria – including a ceiling on carbon emissions per unit of heat – apply to the biomass fuel. The threshold is currently 125 kgCO₂eq/MWh, stricter than existing electricity criteria, but about equal to the supply chain emissions of Drax. Like the other mechanisms, this threshold applies only to supply chain emissions; emissions from combustion are ignored. The lower emissions threshold to be introduced for future power generation does not apply to the RHI.

The UK has made much less progress in introducing renewable heat than electricity. It is currently consulting on successor schemes to the RHI, which will close to new applicants in 2021/22. While the development of extensive small-scale biomass heat sources seems unlikely (proposals issued for consultation in April 2020 favoured heat pumps and hydrogen102), increased use of biomass for industrial heat seems probable. Future intentions should become clearer when the UK government publishes its bioenergy strategy, expected in 2022.

The third potential source of demand is BECCS. In March 2020 the government allocated £800 million to establish CCS in at least two UK sites, one by the mid-2020s and a second by 2030. This allocation was later raised to £1 billion, with the intention of storing at least 10 MtCO₂ per year by the 2030s, rising to at least 20 MtCO₂ per year by 2035. In its energy white paper Powering our Net Zero Future, published in December 2020, the government declared its intention to review the potential application of BECCS in clean hydrogen production, power generation, waste management and heat for industrial processes. It observed that ‘current support for electricity generation, which converted from coal to using biomass as a fuel source, expires in 2027. BECCS could provide a long-term future for this capacity.’103 The government launched a call for evidence on greenhouse gas removal technologies and intends to publish a new biomass strategy by 2022, including establishing the role BECCS could play and reviewing feedstock sustainability criteria. In April 2021 it also issued a call for evidence on ‘The Role of Biomass in Achieving Net Zero’.104

A report by the consultancy Ricardo Energy and Environment on the potential for BECCS, commissioned by the UK government, was published in August 2020.105 Drawing on previous work on the likely availability of feedstock, and extrapolating from a pilot chemical absorption BECCS project under way at Drax, the study concluded that a deployment level of 500 megawatts electrical (MWe) of BECCS was feasible by 2030. This was most likely to be provided by fitting a capture plant to one of Drax’s existing units. Between three and five further 500 MWe units were assumed to be capable of construction by 2040. If the Drax pilot proves successful, three of these could be the remaining biomass-fired boilers at Drax. An additional 500 MWe oxyfuel unit was assumed capable of construction by 2040. This would use a different technology for capturing the CO₂, but could still use biomass as fuel.

The Climate Change Committee, the government’s independent advisory body on climate policy, published its recommendations for the UK’s sixth carbon budget in December 2020.106 All of the five net zero scenarios presented included BECCS, and it concluded that biomass-fired power generation should begin to include CCS technology in the late 2020s. The Committee pointed to the need to expand UK forestry and energy crop production to reduce reliance on imports. Nevertheless, volumes of imported biomass remained significant in the central scenario, plus three of the other four. As in the EU, the projection included a very large expansion in energy crop production, reaching a total area of 700,000 hectares by 2050 (central scenario), representing a more than seven-fold increase on the area in 2019.107 However, since most UK biomass power plants were built to process wood pellets and can only burn small proportions of agricultural residues owing to their abrasive effect on the machinery when combusted, there could well be pressure from the biomass industry for wood pellet use to continue.108

There are significant technological and financial challenges to be overcome before BECCS technology could be deployed at scale, and there are significant question marks over the extent to which it could genuinely create negative emissions. Additionally, it remains unclear whether the consuming country or the producing country would account for those negative emissions.109 If the deployment of BECCS proceeds at scale, however, demand for wood pellets from Drax could remain largely constant after current support mechanisms end in 2027. Demand from the UK overall for wood pellets could therefore increase in the late 2020s.

Projected emissions associated with US-sourced biomass in the UK

As set out in Table 5, UK demand for US-sourced wood pellets for power is projected to rise from 4.9 million tonnes in 2018 to 7.0 million tonnes by 2026. Uncertainty over the future development of UK renewable heat policy does not allow any conclusions to be reached about further growth of imports to feed demand for heat, including industrial processes. After 2027, demand from Lynemouth will end, while demand from Drax is likely to fall. However, this fall will not be to zero if the company is able to develop its pilot BECCS technology. If the impact of ending power generation at Drax in 2027 is too severe for UK electricity supply (or if generation continues without subsidy, perhaps in the expectation of future support for BECCS technology), consumption of US wood pellets could remain at 7.0 million tonnes in 2030. Should significant investment in BECCS go ahead, demand for wood pellets is likely to increase in the late 2020s and into the 2030s. The US remains a likely source of supply.

For the purpose of estimating emissions, we therefore use projected figures for demand for US-sourced wood pellets of 7.0 million tonnes in 2025. Two scenarios are presented for 2030. Scenario A, where Drax maintains generation only at one unit, leads to a projected consumption of 2.9 million tonnes, comprising 1.1 million tonnes at Drax, 1.3 million tonnes at TeesREP, and 0.5 million tonnes for other uses. Scenario B, which assumes that generation continues at all four units at Drax, adds an extra 3.4 million tonnes for the other three units. The associated emissions are included below in Table 6, calculated as explained in Section 3.5 and the Annex. These take into account emissions from combustion and the supply chain, forgone removals of CO₂ from the atmosphere due to the harvest of live trees and emissions from the decay of roots and unused logging residues left in the forest after harvest.

Table 6. Forward estimates of UK biomass emissions from US-sourced biomass

Imports and emissions	2019	2025	2030
Scenario A (one unit at Drax in 2030)
Wood pellet imports from US (kt)	5,484	7,000	2,900
Emissions – Scenario 1 (ktCO₂)	13,062	16,674	6,908
Emissions – Scenario 2 (ktCO₂)	15,529	19,824	8,213
Scenario B (four units at Drax in 2030)
Wood pellet imports from US (kt)	5,484	7,000	6,300
Emissions – Scenario 1 (ktCO₂)	13,062	16,674	15,007
Emissions – Scenario 2 (ktCO₂)	15,529	19,824	17,842

Source: Compiled by the authors.

European Commission (2021), ‘Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Directive (EU) 2018/2001 of the European Parliament and of the Council, Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 of the European Parliament and of the Council and Directive 98/70/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards the promotion of energy from renewable sources, and repealing Council Directive (EU) 2015/652’, COM(2021) 557 final.

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2020), ‘Renewables 2020 Data Explorer’, https://www.iea.org/articles/renewables-2020-data-explorer?mode=market&region=European+Union&product=Bioenergy.

IEA (2020), Renewables 2020: Analysis and forecast to 2025, p. 110, https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/1a24f1fe-c971-4c25-964a-57d0f31eb97b/Renewables_2020-PDF.pdf.

European Commission/Navigant Consulting (2020), Technical assistance in realisation of the 5th report on progress of renewable energy in the EU.

European Commission (2020), ‘Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: Stepping up Europe’s 2030 climate ambition – Investing in a climate-neutral future for the benefit of our people’, COM(2020) 562 final, p. 10, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM:2020:562:FIN.

European Commission (2020), ‘Commission Staff Working Document Impact Assessment Accompanying the Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions: Stepping up Europe’s 2030 climate ambition – Investing in a climate-neutral future for the benefit of our people’ SWD(2020) 176 final, Part 1, p. 55, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52020SC0176&qid=1629892827334.

Ibid., Part 2, p. 95.

Ibid., p. 96.

Ibid., p. 103.

For a longer discussion, see Dooley, K., Christoff, P. and Nicholas, K. (2018). ‘Co-producing climate policy and negative emissions: Trade-offs for sustainable land-use’, Global Sustainability, 1, E3, doi: 10.1017/sus.2018.6.

FAOSTAT (2021), Forestry Production and Trade database.

Calderón and Colla (2019), Bioenergy Europe Statistical Report 2019: Pellet, p. 29. The FutureMetrics figures are different from Bioenergy Europe’s in this report, probably because the former allocates a higher proportion of pellets used in CHP stations to industrial consumption, and less to heat, than the latter. The Bioenergy Europe figure for industrial wood pellet consumption in the EU in 2018 was 12.2 million tonnes, whereas FutureMetrics analysis reported in January 2020 suggested just under 15 million tonnes – see Strauss, W. (2020), ‘2020 global pellet markets outlook’, Canadian Biomass, https://www.canadianbiomassmagazine.ca/2020-global-pellet-markets-outlook. See also following note.

Bioenergy Europe figures show 16.8 million tonnes consumed for heat in 2018. See previous note.

Ember (2019), ‘Playing with Fire: An assessment of company plans to burn biomass in EU coal power stations’, https://ember-climate.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Ember-Playing-With-Fire-2019.pdf.

Appunn, K. and Wehrmann, B. (2020), ‘Germany irons out last coal exit law hurdles with conversion options for younger plants’, Clean Energy Wire, 1 July 2020, https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/germany-irons-out-last-coal-exit-law-hurdles-conversion-options-younger-plants#:~:text=Germany%20irons%20out%20last%20coal%20exit%20law%20hurdles,passage%20of%20the%20bill%20in%20parliament%20at%20 and Wettengel, J. (2020), ‘Spelling out the coal exit – Germany’s phase-out plan’, Clean Energy Wire, 3 July 2020,  https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/spelling-out-coal-phase-out-germanys-exit-law-draft.

For a longer discussion of BECCS, its potential and drawbacks, see Brack, D. and King, R. (2020), Net Zero and Beyond: What Role for Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage?, Research Paper, London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/01/net-zero-and-beyond-what-role-bioenergy-carbon-capture-and-storage.

Sherrard, A. (2020), ‘Stockholm Exergi sets target to be ‘climate-positive’ by 2025’, Bioenergy International, 16 June 2020, https://bioenergyinternational.com/heat-power/stockholm-exergi-to-be-climate-positive-as-early-as-2025.

This is not an exhaustive review but focuses on the main current importers of US pellets, with additional information drawn from Smith, M., Kralli, A. and Lemoine, P. (2021), ‘Analysis on biomass in National Energy and Climate Plans’, Trinomics/Fern, https://www.fern.org/publications-insight/analysis-on-biomass-in-national-energy-and-climate-plans-2326/#:~:text=Analysis%20on%20biomass%20in%20National%20Energy%20and%20Climate,early%202000s%20and%20has%20already%20surpassed%20projected%20levels.

See ShareAction, European biomass plant database, https://shareaction.org/research-resources/european-biomass-plant-database.

Government of Belgium (2019), ‘Belgian Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan 2021–2030’,  https://www.nationalenergyclimateplan.be/en.

Danish Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities (2019), ‘Denmark’s Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan’, p. 158, https://kefm.dk/media/7095/denmarks-national-energy-and-climate-plan.pdf.

Ibid., p. 131.

US Foreign Agricultural Service (2019), ‘The Dutch Industrial Market for Biomass’, https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/report/downloadreportbyfilename?filename=The%20Dutch%20Industrial%20Market%20for%20Biomass_The%20Hague_Netherlands_2-5-2019.pdf.

Janssen, D. (2020), ‘The Dutch have decided: Burning biomass is not sustainable’, Euractiv.com, 21 July 2020, https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/the-dutch-have-decided-burning-biomass-is-not-sustainable.

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (2020), ‘Rapid phasing out of woody biobased raw materials for heat networks is risky’, 18 December 2020, https://www.pbl.nl/nieuws/2020/snelle-uitfasering-houtige-biogrondstoffen-voor-warmtenetten-is-risicovol.

Catanoso, J. (2021), ‘Dutch to limit forest biomass subsidies, possibly signaling EU sea change’, Mongabay.com, 9 March 2021, https://news.mongabay.com/2021/03/dutch-to-limit-forest-biomass-subsidies-possibly-signaling-eu-sea-change.

Power Technology (2017), ‘Lynemouth Biomass Power Station, Northumberland’, https://www.power-technology.com/projects/lynemouth-biomass-power-station-northumberland.

BEIS (2020), ‘Contracts for Difference for Low Carbon Electricity Generation: Government response to consultation on proposed amendments to the scheme’, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/983934/scps-cfd-contract-govt-response.pdf.

Price, K. (2021), ‘Switch-on for enormous TeesREP biomass power plant imminent – with up to 400 workers poised’, Teesside Live, 8 February 2021, https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/switch-enormous-teesrep-biomass-power-19858247.

Low Carbon Contracts Company (2021), ‘CFD Register: Teesside Renewable Energy Project’,  https://www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/cfds/teesside-renewable-energy-project.

European Commission (2015), ‘State aid SA.38796 (2014/N) – United Kingdom. Teesside Dedicated Biomass CHP Project’, C(2015) 168 cor, https://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/cases/255393/255393_1709269_107_2.pdf.

Power Technology (2015), ‘Tees Renewable Energy Plant, Teesside’, https://www.power-technology.com/projects/tees-renewable-plant-teesside.

Argus Media (2020), ‘UK’s CCC advises BECCS, domestic biomass supply’, 9 December 2020,  https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2167380-uks-ccc-advises-beccs-domestic-biomass-supply.

Strauss, W. (2020), ‘2020 global pellet markets outlook’.

BEIS (2020), ‘RHI monthly deployment data: September 2020 (Quarterly edition)’, https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/rhi-monthly-deployment-data-september-2020-quarterly-edition.

BEIS (2020), Future support for low carbon heat, London: BEIS, p. 27, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888736/future-support-for-low-carbon-heat-consultation.pdf.

HM Government (2020), The Energy White Paper: Powering our Net Zero Future (CP 337), London: HM Government, p. 53, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/945899/201216_BEIS_EWP_Command_Paper_Accessible.pdf.

BEIS (2021), ‘The Role of Biomass in Achieving Net Zero – Call for Evidence’, https://beisgovuk.citizenspace.com/clean-electricity/biomass-strategy-call-for-evidence/#:~:text=The%20Call%20for%20Evidence%20aims%20to%20strengthen%20the,role%20in%20our%20efforts%20to%20decarbonise%20the%20economy.

Ricardo Energy and Environment for BEIS (2020), Analysing the potential of bioenergy with carbon capture in the UK to 2050: Summary for policymakers, London: BEIS, p. 5, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/911268/potential-of-bioenergy-with-carbon-capture.pdf.

Committee on Climate Change (2020), The Sixth Carbon Budget: The UK’s path to Net Zero, London: Committee on Climate Change, https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/The-Sixth-Carbon-Budget-The-UKs-path-to-Net-Zero.pdf.

The area in 2019 was 96,000 ha; having risen by 2,000 ha from 2018; Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) (2020), Crops Grown For Bioenergy in the UK: 2019, London: DEFRA, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/943264/nonfood-statsnotice2019-10dec20v3.pdf#:~:text=Ninety%20six%20thousand%20hectares%20of%20agricultural%20land%20was,biofuels%20%EF%82%B7%2067%20thousand%20ha%20of%20maize%201.

Argus Media (2020), ‘UK’s CCC advises BECCS, domestic biomass supply’.

See discussion in, e.g. EASAC (2019), Forest bioenergy, carbon capture and storage, and carbon dioxide removal: an update, https://easac.eu/fileadmin/PDF_s/reports_statements/Negative_Carbon/EASAC_Commentary_Forest_Bioenergy_Feb_2019_FINAL.pdf; Brack and King (2020), Net Zero and Beyond.

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Greenhouse gas emissions from burning US-sourced woody biomass in the EU and UK

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04 Projected growth of biomass energy and associated emissions in the EU and UK

4.1 Projections for the EU27

Power and heat

Figure 5. Use of bioenergy by sector and by scenario

Figure 5. Use of bioenergy by sector and by scenario

Figure 6. Imports of bioenergy

Figure 6. Imports of bioenergy

Coal-to-biomass conversions and replacements

Figure 7. Potential biomass consumption growth in the former EU28 due to coal-to-biomass substitutions in coal power plants, grouped by project risk

Figure 7. Potential biomass consumption growth in the former EU28 due to coal-to-biomass substitutions in coal power plants, grouped by project risk

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)

Key member states

Projected emissions associated with the use of US-sourced biomass in the EU27

Table 4. Projected estimates of EU27 emissions from US-sourced biomass

4.2 Projections for the UK

Power generation

Table 5. Actual 2018 and projected future consumption of wood pellets for power generation in the UK

Other sources of demand

Projected emissions associated with US-sourced biomass in the UK

Table 6. Forward estimates of UK biomass emissions from US-sourced biomass