COP26 is the most important climate summit since COP21 in Paris in 2015. Over the past year, the global politics of climate change have shifted, with the election of President Joe Biden and the announcement of China’s carbon neutrality target.
Addressing climate change is the defining challenge of our time. Around the globe – and across the suite of UN organizations – there is widespread recognition of the urgency to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to prepare for a world that is, and will continue to be, severely impacted by climate change.
The foundational treaty of the international climate change regime – the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) – was adopted at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992. Its signatories agreed to ‘achieve… stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’. The states that have ratified the UNFCCC meet annually at the ‘Conference of the Parties’ (COP) to assess and review the implementation of the convention. The COP has negotiated two separate treaties since the formation of the UNFCCC: the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, and the Paris Agreement in 2015.
The Paris Agreement was adopted by 196 parties at COP21 in 2015 and entered into force less than a year later. The goals of the treaty are to keep the rise in the global average temperature to ‘well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels’, ideally 1.5°C; enhance the ability to adapt to climate change and build resilience; and make ‘finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development’. The agreement adopts a ‘bottom-up’ and non-standardized approach, where parties themselves set their national emission reduction targets and communicate these to the UNFCCC in the form of nationally determined contributions (NDCs).
As things stand, the targets that were submitted in the run-up to COP21 are not sufficient, even if fully implemented, to limit global warming to 2°C, much less 1.5°C. The Paris Agreement was designed, however, to generate increased ambition over time via two components: a collective ‘global stocktake’ during which progress towards Paris Agreement goals is assessed based on country reporting, and the ‘ratchet mechanism’, which encourages countries to communicate new or updated NDCs every five years, with the expectation that ambition will increase over time. The results of the stocktake are scheduled to be released two years before NDC revisions are made. This sequencing is designed to allow national plans to account for the global context of the climate assessment. The first global stocktake is to be conducted between 2021 and 2023, and will be repeated every five years thereafter. The results of the first stocktake are due to be published around COP28.
The 26th Session of the Conference of the Parties (COP26) to the UNFCCC is to be hosted by the UK, in partnership with Italy. After a year-long delay, the conference is now scheduled to take place in Glasgow, Scotland, between 31 October and 12 November 2021. Organizing an in-person event during a pandemic presents a substantial challenge. The UK government is providing vaccines to accredited delegations, but doses only started to be delivered at the beginning of September 2021 and restrictions, such as quarantine requirements, pose further obstacles to participation. An alliance of 1,500 civil society organizations are among those calling for a second postponement of the COP, citing concerns about a lack of plans to enable safe and inclusive participation of delegates from, not least, the Global South. The UK government is, however, adamant that it will proceed with the conference as planned.
The pandemic has changed understandings of global risks, the interconnected nature of economies and the role of governments in preparing for and responding to existential threats. This may provide impetus for accelerated climate action. The postponement of COP26 itself has been of considerable significance. Over the past year, the global politics of climate change have shifted, with the election of President Joe Biden and the announcement of China’s climate neutrality target being particularly important. Moreover, the economic recovery packages that are being rolled out to counter the economic consequences of the pandemic present an opportunity to accelerate the green transition. To date, however, the members of the G20 have prioritized investments in fossil fuels above those in clean energy, and only 10 per cent of the global expenditure is estimated to have been allocated to projects with a net positive effect on the environment.
The pandemic has changed understandings of global risks, the interconnected nature of economies and the role of governments in preparing for and responding to existential threats.
COP26 is the most important climate summit since COP21 in Paris, and it differs from earlier COPs in several ways: it is the first test of the ambition-raising ratchet mechanism and marks a shift from negotiation to implementation. An ambitious outcome at COP26 requires substantial action to be taken before the summit – and outside the remits of the UNFCCC process – as well as at the actual conference.
Human activity has already caused the global average temperature to rise by around 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels, and every additional increase in warming raises the risks for people, communities and ecosystems. To avoid the most catastrophic climate change impacts, it is essential world leaders make every effort to limit warming to 1.5°C. Working group I of the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC shows it is still possible to keep warming to this critical threshold, but that unprecedented action must be taken now. As John Kerry, special presidential envoy for climate, stated, ‘[t]his test is now as acute and as existential as any previous one’.
COP26 has a critical role in getting the world on track for a 1.5°C pathway, and in supporting those most affected by climate change impacts. It also constitutes a key test for the credibility of the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC process overall. But what can and should the Glasgow summit achieve more specifically? The objective of this paper is to discuss what a positive outcome at COP26 would entail, with the dual aims of encouraging increased ambition and contributing to an informed public debate. The main argument put forth is that substantial progress must be made in three main areas, namely on increasing the ambition of NDCs; enhancing support to and addressing concerns of climate-vulnerable developing countries; and advancing the Paris Rulebook to help operationalize the Paris Agreement.
COP26 is undoubtedly hugely significant and national government pledges in the run-up to Glasgow will contribute to shaping the level of future GHG emissions. However, the event is not only critical in terms of reaching an ambitious outcome on climate, it is also an important opportunity to judge the level of confidence in the international process and the UNFCCC.
