As of September 2021, 85 countries and the EU27 had submitted new or updated NDCs, covering around half of global GHG emissions. Some parties, like China and Japan, have proposed new targets but not yet submitted them formally while around 70 parties – including G20 countries like India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey – have neither proposed nor communicated a revised NDC target. Several parties have, moreover, submitted new NDCs without increasing ambition. These include Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, New Zealand, Russia, Singapore, Switzerland and Vietnam. In some of these cases, adjustments in baselines mean that ambition has de facto decreased (Brazil and Mexico). Analysis published by Climate Action Tracker in September 2021 shows that the NDC updates only narrow the gap to 1.5°C by, at best, 15 per cent (4 GtCO₂e). This leaves a large gap of 20–23 GtCO₂e.
Net zero pledges may encourage reliance on negative emissions technologies, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, which have still to be tested at scale to assess land requirement, efficiency and economic viability.
Similar analysis from the UN underscores the need for further NDC enhancements. If all current NDCs are implemented, total GHG emissions (not including emissions associated with land use) in 2030 are projected to be 16.3 per cent higher than in 2010, and 5 per cent higher than in 2019. The emissions of the parties that have submitted new or updated NDCs are, however, expected to fall by around 12 per cent by the end of the decade, compared to 2010 levels. The UN report also highlights the importance of providing support to developing countries, as many of these have submitted NDCs that are – at least in part – conditional on the receipt of additional financial resources, capacity-building support, and technology transfer, among other things. If such support is forthcoming, global emissions could peak before 2030, with emission levels at the end of this decade being 1.4 per cent lower than in 2019. However, even the full implementation of both the unconditional and conditional elements of the NDCs would lead to an overshoot of the targets of the Paris Agreement – as alignment with 1.5°C and 2°C require cuts of 45 per cent and 25 per cent, respectively, by 2030 (relative to 2010 levels).
A large number of countries are also making more long-term net zero emissions or carbon neutrality pledges. As of September 2021, just over 130 countries had made such commitments, but not all of them have formally presented them to the UNFCCC. Examples include large economies like China, Japan, Brazil, the US, South Africa, South Korea, and the EU, as well as climate-vulnerable developing countries like the Marshall Islands, Barbados, Kiribati and Bangladesh. Climate Action Tracker estimates that if these long-term targets – and the NDCs – are fully implemented, global warming could be limited to 2°C. Most of the net zero pledges are, however, formulated in vague terms that are not consistent with good practice. The long-term targets are, moreover, only credible if they are backed up by ambitious and robust 2030 NDCs, given that substantial cuts in emissions must occur this decade. An additional concern that has been raised when it comes to net zero pledges is that they may encourage reliance on negative emissions technologies, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), which have still to be tested at scale to assess land requirement, efficiency and economic viability.
