Tackling the dual crises of climate change and biodiversity loss requires extraordinary levels of action across all sectors, at an unprecedented speed. However, efforts on both fronts could be negated by the ongoing and forecast increase of environmental impacts from food systems. Food production is the biggest user of land, the main source of global methane emissions, a major contributor to total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the leading driver of deforestation and biodiversity loss. On its current trajectory, food production is likely to result in further loss of carbon sinks, such as forests, and the wildlife they support. Animal agriculture accounts for the majority of negative environmental impacts from the food system – due to the large scale of production and energy loss in converting plant nutrients to animal nutrients. Hence, while there is real potential to limit impacts from the entire food system (including cutting food waste), reducing the impacts of animal agriculture presents the biggest opportunity over the next decade. Anything short of a food system transformation is at odds with meeting global climate change mitigation and biodiversity goals. Conversely, transforming food systems can link climate and biodiversity action – enabling meaningful, joined-up change on both fronts.
Food production is the biggest user of land, the main source of global methane emissions, a major contributor to total greenhouse gas emissions, and the leading driver of biodiversity loss.
This paper focuses on land use, which is where approaches to tackling climate change and biodiversity loss mostly intersect. As the biggest user of land globally (50 per cent of habitable land), agriculture warrants scrutiny. Occupying 78 per cent of agricultural land, animal agriculture offers a substantial leverage point to reduce the negative impacts from the food system, particularly given its high resource use compared to output (only 18 per cent of global calories and 37 per cent of global protein supply). Currently, animal agriculture exceeds its fair share of resources, and production needs to be scaled back substantially (by approximately 70 per cent) to align with a 2°C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels.
Land-use change is the biggest cause of biodiversity loss worldwide – primarily due to the conversion of native habitats for animal agriculture (grazing land and feed crop production). Despite this, animal agriculture is forecast to grow substantially up to 2050, causing further loss of biodiversity and carbon stores – while increasing global competition for land. Staying within a 1.5°C global temperature rise – the more ambitious Paris target – requires the removal of large amounts (100–1,000 gigatonnes)
of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere by 2100 as well as a decrease in emissions. Reducing GHG emissions significantly in the short term, combined with lower demand for energy and land, could reduce the extent of CO₂ removal (CDR) required to meet the Paris targets to approximately 300 gigatonnes of CO₂ (Gt CO₂). The large-scale deployment of afforestation (establishing trees where they were previously absent) and bioenergy for CDR could have major implications for food production and biodiversity, due to competition for land and other key resources, such as water and nutrients. Conversely, restoring portions of agricultural land to their native land cover (which includes reforestation – i.e. reinstating trees where they were previously present) could contribute substantially to this CDR goal, and simultaneously help restore functioning, biodiverse ecosystems. At present, afforestation and ecosystem restoration (including reforestation) are the only options available to achieve this at the required scale of deployment. Avoiding excessive rises in global temperatures is important for reducing the requirement for large-scale CDR that could adversely impact biodiversity through land-use change, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Overshooting the temperature targets is likely to have negative and irreversible direct impacts on biodiversity.
Expectations of wealthy nations to increase their climate change mitigation and biodiversity efforts are rising. Wealthy nations have disproportionately contributed to GHG emissions and biodiversity loss historically, and most have per capita GHG levels above the current global average. As such, these well-resourced and relatively well-governed countries have the potential to make substantial changes on both fronts – by reducing GHG emissions from production and consumption activities, protecting remaining important carbon stores and biodiversity, and restoring lost habitats and wildlife. The G7 members are the largest advanced economies and wealthiest liberal democracies, currently accounting for 44 per cent of global GDP and more than 50 per cent of global net wealth. The G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US) are all within the top 20 contributors to cumulative CO₂ emissions over the period 1850–2021, including emissions from fossil fuels, land use and forestry. The G7 2030 Nature Compact arguably positions the G7 as a focal point for biodiversity and climate action.
This paper considers the land-use policy outlook over the current decade in terms of suitability of ambition, with a particular focus on the wealthy nations comprising the G7. In addition, it explores the role of food system transformation as an essential component of meeting climate change mitigation and biodiversity goals. Finally, it identifies three key steps for countries to take to produce suitably ambitious and effective policies across the climate–biodiversity–food nexus.
