The political situation and external relations of Belarus have not developed – and do not exist – in a vacuum. The destiny of Belarus may not be contingent on the outcome of Russia’s war against Ukraine, yet it could have an impact on Belarus’s future. If Russia wins, then positive changes in Belarus should not be expected, while a Ukrainian victory would provide certain opportunities for a more successful transformation of Belarus (and of Western policy towards it). The war will be superimposed on the country’s internal dynamics – a slow transition of power from the ageing authoritarian leader, Lukashenka, to a successor who has not yet been publicly identified. Broadly, the outcome could be anything from a complete loss of independence to democratization. If the West can expand its range of tools for influencing the Lukashenka regime, and Belarusian democratic actors can be equipped with resources and incentivized to act in coordination with Western stakeholders, then a chance could soon emerge for Belarus to change course.
With the Belarusian issue being much bigger than Belarus itself, the role to be played by the West in the future of Belarus has expanded correspondingly. As Lukashenka’s regime continues to suppress active (and pro-Western) parts of Belarusian society and as Russia continues to embroil Belarus in its war against Ukraine, Belarusian civil society is not capable to act alone to change that situation; it needs high-level support from the West. At the same time, Western policy should not limit itself to engagement with the Belarusian pro-democracy forces nor with the current regime under Lukashenka: it must be both broader and more active. This will make it sufficiently dynamic to mitigate negative impacts while leveraging new opportunities, which could prove crucial not only for Belarusian society, but for global security.
For the West to help Belarus, it must regain the sense that Belarus is manageable. Over the past three years, Western attention has been lacking, in part because the situation in the country has only worsened since the disputed election of 2020. Therefore, the West needs to achieve some intermediate victory – be this in the form of Lukashenka deciding to distance himself from Russia; the release of at least a few hundred political prisoners; the weakening of repression; or a change in sentiment within the regime against the backdrop of a transition of power. Any of these could serve not only as a short-term achievement, but also as an impetus for the West to become more active in its policymaking on Belarus.
