This briefing paper is part of a project that considers the potential strengths and weaknesses of Russia’s future state system. To provide an analytical platform for that exercise, this paper examines what Russia’s political system, economic system and foreign policy orientation might look like by the end of 2027, a time frame that is analytically testing yet manageable.
To be clear at the outset: this is categorically not a forecast. Instead, the paper attempts to investigate how one tightly defined scenario constructed by the author could unfold. Based on four baseline assumptions and identifying eight potential drivers or processes that could trigger chains of events, it describes a range of plausible outcomes for Russia. A wider range of equally plausible alternative outcomes can of course be envisaged if different assumptions and drivers are selected.
Although, in the judgment of the author, this specific scenario is unlikely to materialize, there are valid reasons for studying it. First, it assumes a more or less definitive end to the phase of active conflict in Ukraine, thus providing a relatively clear foundation on which to think analytically about Russia’s development. The war could, of course, evolve in other directions and lead to very different outcomes.
Second, despite the fact that Western governments’ stated policy aims as regards the war in Ukraine have frequently lacked clarity, coherence and consistency, this scenario accords with the more maximalist objectives articulated by some decision-makers. There is value in thinking about the kind of Russia that Western governments might have to deal with in such circumstances.
Third, this scenario envisages a post-Putin leadership in Russia. This eventuality – which, it should be stressed, is not an objective of Western policy – requires us to think about a seminal event that Western governments will have to contend with sooner or later.
Lastly, although this paper is a contribution to wider analytical debates about Russia’s future, it also reflects on Russia’s present, and some of the internal and external forces that are shaping it. As one commentator noted in 2010:
