The 2023 NATO Summit presents a key opportunity for NATO to demonstrate the importance of climate change as a security priority and to lead the way in future-proofing allies against climate-driven shocks.
Climate change will impact the security of populations by altering access to resources, damaging livelihoods, increasing migration, weakening the ability of states to provide public services, and potentially triggering political instability. As a cross-border threat, climate change is impressing upon international organizations their responsibility to anticipate risk, manage crises and coordinate the actions of others to strengthen awareness and resilience. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has also recognized the need to strengthen its abilities to cope with climate-driven shocks.
NATO is an alliance predicated on safeguarding its member states from security challenges that threaten a single ally or the alliance as a whole. Formed as a purely defensive organization in 1949, it was labelled ‘brain dead’ by French president Emmanuel Macron in 2019 due to a lack of strategic leadership from the US and poor coordination with Europe vis-à-vis the most pressing challenges facing the alliance. Yet Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has brought collective defence back to the fore and reignited the relevance of the alliance – even Sweden and Finland have abandoned a long history of military non-alignment to apply to join NATO. With new realities such as the rise of emerging and disruptive technologies, economic security issues and, critically, climate change presenting further security challenges, NATO’s ability to prepare for and respond to multiple threats is integral to its renewed sense of purpose. Ukraine is inevitably NATO’s main focus, but it is imperative that the war and consequent concerns over traditional security threats do not distract member states from efforts to address climate-related instability. In fact, climate change will significantly impact all facets of allied security – from the stability of communities and societies globally to the efficacy of military power.
NATO has shown that it wants to play a larger role in improving the resilience of its member states and that responding to the growing threats posed by climate change is fundamental to its three core tasks: collective defence, crisis management and cooperative security. It has taken significant steps to plan for and respond to climate-related events – most recently through the prioritization of climate change in the 2022 Strategic Concept, and the launch of the Climate Change and Security Action Plan at the 2021 NATO Summit. In addition, Canada created a new NATO-affiliated Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence. These actions highlight the institutional momentum NATO has generated to tackle climate change for the benefit of global security and operational efficiency. Developing a clear plan for the integration and implementation of climate resilient approaches throughout all facets of the alliance is the next step.
NATO possesses distinct capabilities that could enable it to play a significant role in future-proofing its members’ armed forces against growing climate impacts.
The 2023 NATO Summit will be an important milestone for NATO to demonstrate how it is preparing the alliance to operate within this changing security landscape. As this paper will illustrate, NATO possesses distinct capabilities that could enable it to play a significant role in future-proofing its members’ armed forces against growing climate impacts. In this paper, ‘future-proofing’ and ‘climate-proofing’ mean reducing and mitigating the potential impact of climate change to the extent possible. NATO can show member states and the wider defence community that it is possible to balance between competing security threats and see climate change as a priority for international security and military effectiveness. It can lead the way in committing greater attention, funding and integration to climate concerns. This collaborative and forward-looking posture will be key to maintaining NATO’s relevance and legitimacy as an organization committed to protecting the security of its members.
About this paper
The purpose of this paper is to provide practical guidance to NATO HQ and member states for implementing both adaptation and mitigation measures to strengthen resilience against climate change, with benefits reaching beyond NATO territory. The second chapter discusses the impact of climate change on the security and operating environment, how NATO will be affected in the immediate-, medium- and long-term, and the positioning of NATO’s response as seen through the 2022 Strategic Concept. The third chapter outlines in detail three priority areas – institutional and political structures, measuring and monitoring systems, and operational resilience – in which NATO can begin to implement measures. The fourth chapter considers the political challenges that NATO must overcome and the partnerships it can utilize to maintain stability and cohesion and to ultimately deliver on its core tasks. The final chapter summarizes recommendations to NATO HQ and member states.
This analysis is drawn from 13 semi-structured interviews and a further 12 consultations with mid- and senior-level experts working in and on NATO across think-tanks, academia, non-governmental organizations, the defence industry and government, which took place between June and December 2022. Key findings and recommendations were tested in a hybrid expert workshop in October 2022.
