Energy and food – and even Ukraine’s harsh winter climate – have been weaponized in this war.
One of the first responses by many European countries to the invasion was to phase down imports of Russian oil and gas, as they sought to exert financial pressure on Russia. Meanwhile, Russia slashed energy supplies to many countries across Europe in an attempt to sap their support for Ukraine and to retaliate for sanctions.
Following Russia’s failed attempt to capture Kyiv early in the invasion, its forces began attacking energy installations across Ukraine. Since October 2022, nearly all large energy facilities across the country have been attacked by missiles or drones. The clear intent behind these attacks was to destroy the Ukrainian economy, weaponize Ukraine’s harsh winter climate and freeze the Ukrainian population into submission.
Food has also become a tool of political influence, such that former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev referred to it as Russia’s ‘quiet, but formidable, weapon’. Russia’s early blockades of Ukraine’s Black Sea export routes – coupled with Western sanctions on Russia’s exports – led to rapid rises in food prices, with direct impacts on hunger around the world. The resulting price rises for basic foodstuffs have exposed new fault lines in the global food system and contributed to growing tensions in geopolitical alliances.
The invasion has led to unprecedented spikes in global energy and food prices, which have created a cost-of-living crisis that is impoverishing millions and further increased vulnerability around the world. High energy prices hit the poor hardest. People below the international poverty line of $2.15 a day typically spend more than one-quarter of their non-food consumption on energy. One study estimated that an additional 78 million–141 million people worldwide could be pushed into extreme poverty as a result of the war’s impact on energy prices.
Russia’s strategy of ‘energy blackmail’ failed – at least during the winter of 2022–23. Ukraine successfully resisted Russia’s attacks and survived. Neither did the rest of Europe run out of energy, in part due to concerted action by policymakers to find alternative suppliers and to encourage energy efficiency measures. But direct losses to the Ukrainian energy sector were substantial: by March 2023, estimates of the damage to utilities and district heating were at least $10.6 billion. The average Ukrainian household had to endure five cumulative weeks without power during the winter of 2022.
Ultimately, the war is likely to increase the longer-term impacts of climate change in Ukraine and beyond by compounding existing, associated causes of insecurity – in particular, food insecurity, economic stagnation, resource insecurity and large-scale human displacement – while reducing the fiscal space to mitigate emissions and adapt to climate change.
