If the right actions are taken now and post-war, Ukraine can rebuild its damaged infrastructure and leap forward to a cleaner, low-emission future.
Russia’s war against Ukraine is, first and foremost, a tragedy for Ukrainians. Alongside the humanitarian horror and the geopolitical shockwaves the war is causing, it is also exacerbating vulnerability to climate change in Ukraine and around the world, and hindering multilateral climate action.
The course of the war will have significant strategic implications for the prospects of the green transition both in Ukraine and internationally. But much of the long-term effect depends on actions taken from now on. If the right actions are taken, Ukraine can rebuild its damaged infrastructure and leap forward to a cleaner, low-emission future.
The following recommendations are aimed at policymakers in Ukraine and elsewhere. They have been divided into two broad groups: the first consists of short-term actions – i.e. those that are possible and necessary while the war is ongoing; and the second ‘long-term’ actions – i.e. those that can only be put into place once the conflict ends.
Actions over the short term
Plan ahead for green reconstruction
Even though Ukraine is fighting for its existence right now, there are things that its government and partners can do to ensure that plans for green reconstruction can be implemented when the time arises. This could be an opportunity to reshape Ukraine’s economic foundations, shifting the country towards low-carbon development, energy efficiency and environmental protection.
In April 2022, the Ukrainian government formed the National Council for Recovery from the War. The council established a working group on ‘environmental safety’ to develop proposals for the plan. The working group identified five priority areas:
- Reforming public environmental administration;
- Climate change mitigation and adaptation policy;
- Environmental safety and effective waste management;
- Sustainable use of natural resources; and
- Conservation of natural ecosystems, preservation of biological diversity, and restoration and development of protected areas.
The government released its 10-year recovery plan in July 2022 at a heads-of-state conference in Lugano, Switzerland. A recent study estimated that 33 per cent of Ukraine’s recovery plan is climate positive, and that, with the right support, Ukraine could emerge from the war as a climate leader. Ukraine’s partners, meanwhile, can help to coordinate best practice guidance and lessons learned from other examples of post-war reconstruction, and monitor financial flows coming in for reconstruction to ensure they are also contributing to the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.
Secure funding for reconstruction
Post-war reconstruction in Ukraine will be a huge task, requiring a comprehensive, well-coordinated and well-funded effort. European and other partners must begin working now to bring together the right partners, identify the best expertise and find funding. Close coordination with supporting countries, international organizations and international financial institutions is needed to mobilize the expertise and resources required for the reconstruction.
Ukraine’s reconstruction is also a unique opportunity for Europe as a whole to become more energy-efficient. Ukraine and its partners can develop a pipeline of achievable green investment projects to mobilize domestic and international private finance, as well as international public funding. Continued modernization of government institutions at the national and subnational levels will ensure that there is the necessary capacity to plan and implement climate-friendly and environmentally sustainable reconstruction efforts.
Develop a sustainable and cost-efficient energy strategy
Ukraine will need to implement an energy strategy that accounts for the new realities. The role of nuclear power in Ukraine’s future energy mix is still to be determined but needs to be carefully considered. Renewable energy can provide a rapid pathway to greater political independence and a more competitive economy for Ukraine. It also enables greater integration with the EU. Therefore, the rebuilding of transmission grids and electricity networks needs to be suited to renewables, to maximize system flexibility. Linking the Ukrainian grid with that of the EU would provide an outlet for exports and power exchanges, and would reduce the ability of Russia and its allies to use energy as a tool of influence over Ukraine.
Avoid delays to climate action
The energy and food price crises and the movement of millions of refugees should not be used as excuses to delay ambitious climate action. Governments around the world must work with urgency to build resilience to these cascading risks and ensure attention to both the immediate existential challenge for Ukraine and the longer-term challenge of climate change. It is precisely these types of crises that demonstrate the need to promote renewable energies, foster energy efficiency and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.
Actions for the long term
Build back better
Once the war ends, the reconstruction of Ukraine can begin in earnest. The post-war economic reconstruction process can, and should, be used for a fundamental transformation of Ukraine towards a green and net zero economy. The war presents an opportunity to rebuild in a more energy-efficient way, with fewer polluting industries and transport systems. Buildings designed in the Soviet era were poorly insulated, and this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to construct a high-efficiency building stock. Greater energy efficiency alone could reduce Ukraine’s energy demand by an estimated 40 per cent.
The government and its partners should advocate for sufficient funding and demand high standards for green reconstruction. Close coordination with supporting countries, international organizations and international financial institutions is needed to mobilize the expertise, resources and supply chains for the reconstruction. It should also be done by Ukrainian companies: a recent study by USAID found that 90 per cent of materials needed can be provided by domestic companies and that 100,000 jobs could be created. The international community must begin working now to bring together the right partners, identify the best expertise and find funding.
Accelerate energy efficiency measures and move away from fossil fuels
The war underlines the political, economic, environmental and security imperatives for Ukraine and other countries to move away from fossil fuels. This can be achieved by promoting energy efficiency, enabling renewable forms of energy production and storage, reducing use of fossil fuels in the energy and agricultural sectors, and shifting sourcing away from autocratic states. Given the ease with which fossil fuels can be used as instruments of political coercion, diversifying away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy self-sufficiency can also have positive political and security benefits.
Establish plans to transition food systems for resilience and sustainability
As 2022 has shown, along with previous crises such as the financial crises of 2007–08 and 2010–11 and the COVID-19 pandemic, globalized food systems are prone to price volatility that can be exacerbated by export bans, financial speculation and lack of transparency. They are also globally significant drivers of climate change, being responsible for approximately one-third of global anthropogenic emissions. The transformation of food systems to both build resilience and adapt to climate change, and to mitigate its environmental impacts, is a clear need. Building food security – as part of national security – should not be an excuse to avoid transforming food systems for positive environmental and health outcomes, as these goals can be aligned; just as energy security is not a reason to revert to fossil fuel-based energy systems.
Invest in collaboration for climate adaptation
Meanwhile, Russia’s war against Ukraine underlines the need for countries worldwide to collaborate more closely to address the impacts of climate change, to find ways to encourage and enable joint efforts on adaptation to climate change across the world, and to address the cascading risks from climate change that could exacerbate other crises. Ultimately, once this needless war is over, it will be important to build for the future, not to rebuild the past.
