A systems analysis can help policymakers better understand the interplay between cross-border conflict dynamics, including those that relate to mobility economies in Niger, to develop more effective and strategic policy approaches.
This research paper has explored the interconnected socio-economic and political processes that have shaped the migration economy of Agadez since 2011. The systems analysis presented here highlights the extent to which armed conflict in Libya has had a profound impact on the scope and structure of the migrant smuggling economy in Agadez. This, in turn, shaped conflict dynamics in southern Libya, as various actors involved in migrant smuggling began using their newfound revenues to further their own political and military objectives. At the same time, domestic and international efforts to curb migration through the criminalization of migrant transportation had the practical effect of displacing migrant itineraries, driving the industry underground, placing migrants at greater risk, straining livelihoods in Agadez, and exacerbating various longstanding social and political tensions in Niger.
The negative economic consequences of the crackdown on migration were softened by a gold rush that provided alternative opportunities to various actors directly involved in migrant transportation and adjacent migration activities. However, the development of gold mining is intertwined with restructured mobility economies, and this has resulted in the emergence of violent protection rackets and competitive security actors that are an extension of those present in southern Libya and northern Chad.
Recognition of this bidirectional interplay and the complexity of these transnational systems, brings into sharp focus three shortcomings of Western policy interventions in Niger. First, Western policy interventions have addressed migration as a technical issue rather than a political one. Second, they have failed to acknowledge the complexity of the connections between the geographies in question – instead pursuing generalized and simplistic approaches. Finally, the West’s partnering with Niger under previous governments reveals a degree of transactionalism that has not resulted in sustainable and positive outcomes. An approach to conflict stabilization and migration limitation that makes use of comprehensive systems analysis could support more effective and strategic policy interventions by:
Assessing cross-border mobility within broader transnational socio-political and economic contexts
The most vital lesson going forward is for Western policymakers to acknowledge that policy interventions in the form of criminalization, state law enforcement and border control in Niger are unlikely to yield sustainable or productive outcomes. While there is a certain logic to these approaches, they are predicated upon a misreading that sees migration as a technical issue to be addressed through state capacity, rather than a socio-economic phenomenon that is inherently political and, in the case of Niger, entangled within complex socio-economic systems that can have a considerable impact on transnational conflict dynamics.
Analyses that seek to understand a specific informal, criminal or illicit economy on a granular level, but fail to situate them within broader systems will inevitably lead to policy approaches with significant blind spots. They are also likely to lead to policy interventions that are ineffective and, in some cases, counterproductive. In the case of Niger, many of the negative consequences of criminalization were, in fact, anticipated, but not adequately addressed. Incorporating systems analysis into existing country and conflict assessments would not only enable policymakers to have a more complete understanding of the conflict dynamics at work, but would also make it easier to anticipate second-order repercussions of a given policy intervention and even proactively pre-empt potential negative externalities of well-considered policies.
Niger’s experience in tackling migrant smuggling should demonstrate to policymakers the risks of entrenched biases towards criminalizing activities like migrant transportation and formalizing or impeding informal economies. In addition, failing to understand the full contexts in which these economies function only compounds these issues.
Understanding that transnational dynamics require transnational responses
Issues relating to international migration are, by definition, transnational in nature. However, the policy interventions in Agadez specifically, and Niger more generally, are fundamentally an attempt to stem migration while bypassing the formidable challenge of adequately addressing the governance issue in Libya. Alternatively, the application of a systems-analysis approach to transnational conflict dynamics in places like Niger and Libya would enable policymakers to better understand the ways in which various formal and informal economies intersect, and to anticipate the broad range of possible consequences that can follow a given policy intervention. Thus far, the approach has been used by peacebuilders to understand how to reveal the structures of conflict, including the hidden aspects, in order to support systemic conflict transformation, but there is clearly space to develop the approach into strategic policy action.
Moving from transactionalism to a wider strategy
The current military-led government in Niger has thus far signalled that it intends to pursue policies that ‘reset’ its relationships with several longstanding security and development partners, most notably France, the EU and the US, while deepening its relationships with partners such as Russia. Given that the geopolitics of the Sahel have changed dramatically since 2021, and are likely to continue to shift, a range of traditional development and security partners are now reassessing how to best engage the Sahel-Sahara. These developments necessitate a reappraisal of Western-led policies in the region, particularly those that seek to influence migration. To effectively address the issues, patterns of human mobility in Niger need to be considered within the wider context of conflict-related socio-political developments, geopolitical competition, growing pressures emerging from climate change and emerging political economies linked to the mining sector.
One clear consideration here is that the repercussions of deals to reduce migration need to be better incorporated into policy approaches aimed at conflict stabilization. Indeed, migration deals with transit states are inherently transactional, and often unpopular with local populations. While there is no evidence that dissatisfaction with the anti-migrant smuggling law was a motivating factor behind the July 2023 coup in Niger, the analysis above demonstrates the ways in which the crackdown on migrant smuggling invigorated longstanding narratives that the Nigerien government does not prioritize the interests of its own citizens, and further eroded trust between local communities and government authorities. The fact that the new military-led government repealed Law 2015-36 and that the decision to do so was met with widespread approval, further underscores the limits of transactional approaches to ‘migration management’.
