Ukraine’s gamble in Kursk restores belief it can beat Russia – it requires a Western response

The surprise raid has put talk of concessions to Moscow on hold. Kyiv hopes it will also defuse fears of Russian escalation.

Expert comment Published 19 August 2024 3 minute READ

Olga Tokariuk

Open Society University Network Academy Fellow, Ukraine Forum, Russia and Eurasia Programme

Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, while in full compliance with its right to self-defence, caught both Russia and the West by surprise. The raid was a model of operational security. 

There is little appetite for [negotiations] inside Ukraine, and even less trust that Russia would not use an eventual ceasefire to rearm, regroup and re-attack. 

The Ukrainian leadership seems to have learnt a key lesson from last year’s failed counteroffensive: better to act swiftly without much publicity, depriving the Russians of the ability to prepare. Ukrainian soldiers were reportedly told about the assault just before it was about to start. President Zelenskyy only confirmed the presence of Ukrainian troops in Kursk a week after the operation began. 

While the Kursk operation is still underway, and with its final outcome yet unclear, it has already changed some western perceptions of the war in favour of Ukraine. Ukraine again has initiative on the battlefield and has already achieved four objectives. 

Returning focus to the war

First, Ukraine’s bold and asymmetric move has put on hold discussions about a stalemate and possible negotiations involving concessions to Russia. There is still little appetite for that inside Ukraine, and even less trust that Russia would not use an eventual ceasefire to rearm, regroup and re-attack. 

Instead, the focus is on the battlefield again, and it seems Ukraine might improve its future negotiating position. The Kursk operation, which was reportedly not coordinated with Ukraine’s partners, also highlights Ukraine’s agency, thereby undermining Russia’s portrayal of the conflict as a proxy war with the West.

It has restored people’s belief that Ukraine can win as well as trust in Kyiv’s political and military leadership, undermined by the lack of recent battlefield success.

Second, the raid into Kursk is a major morale boost for Ukrainians and their supporters, some of whom see it as a possible turning point in the war. It has restored people’s belief that Ukraine can win as well as trust in Kyiv’s political and military leadership, undermined by the lack of recent battlefield success and Zelenskyy’s sacking of popular army commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny. 

Impact on Russia

Third, Ukraine brought the war home for Russians and exposed weaknesses in the Russian army. There is hope, even if meagre, that it will make Russians who now have to flee their homes just like Ukrainians did, understand the cost of the war – and question Putin’s legitimacy. 

While this remains unlikely in any significant numbers, Kursk residents have spoken about their realization that the war has finally reached them. Even on Russian state TV, there are reportedly ‘signs of pessimism’ emerging from some commentators about the attack.

Ukraine’s fourth objective was simply to inflict significant damage on Russian war capabilities. Columns of Russian troops in the Kursk region have been ambushed, and military equipment destroyed. Ukraine has captured hundreds of Russian soldiers, who can hopefully now be exchanged for Ukrainian servicemen, including the remaining defenders of Mariupol who have been held in Russia for more than two years. 

A risky gamble 

However, caution is justified. Russia is reportedly pulling troops into the Kursk region from other areas, including the occupied territories of Ukraine, leading to worries about how long the Ukrainians can hold on, and the level of losses they might suffer. 

A source in the Ukrainian armed forces who wished to remain anonymous said that they suffered casualties from the first phase of the incursion: ‘The Russians were waiting for us, the regular army, border guards, Akhmat group [forces loyal to Ramzan Kadyrov, Chechnya’s ruler], special forces. To get there, our soldiers had to do thorough demining and overcome strong enemy defences. Our guys are making tremendous efforts: there are wounded, killed, ambushes, head-on battles.’

This toll is likely to rise further. Ukrainians may have to withdraw from the Russian territory they currently hold. The Kursk offensive remains a gamble, with a potentially dangerous outcome. 

Ukraine’s decision to risk this operation was in part prompted by the West’s hesitancy to provide sufficient support: if Kyiv had other, less dangerous, options to inflict heavy losses on Russia, it may have taken them. 

Ukraine’s decision to risk this operation was in part prompted by the West’s hesitancy to provide sufficient support.

The West’s fear of Russian escalation has made it cautious about backing any incursion onto Russian soil, yet Ukrainians see this war as an existential struggle for survival and will take the steps necessary to win. There are many who argue that had Ukraine been supplied with the weapons it asked for at the beginning of the invasion – instead of only gradually – the war would already have ended. 

Ukrainians hope the Kursk operation – and Russia’s conspicuous failure to react –  will defuse those fears of escalation in the West. It has renewed calls to allow Ukraine to use Western weapons for missile strikes on military targets deeper inside Russia (and indeed UK tanks were used in the Kursk assault). This would, crucially, diminish Moscow’s capacity to attack Ukraine. The West must now react accordingly and untie Kyiv’s hands, allowing it to fully defend itself, even on Russian territory. 

A version of this article was originally published in the i paper.