There are four possible outcomes for Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine: ‘long war’, ‘frozen conflict’, ‘victory for Ukraine’ and ‘defeat for Ukraine’. Regardless of which scenario emerges, the far-reaching and traumatic sociological, economic and political impacts of the war will be inescapable.
The main strategic challenge that will confront Ukraine when martial law is lifted is whether the country will be able to maintain sufficient unity and resolve to strengthen its institutions and economy to allow it to recover and defend itself against future attack. The end of martial law will bring further uncertainty in the shape of parliamentary and presidential elections that are required by the country’s constitution. New political players, including military veterans and representatives of the civil volunteer movement, seeking to uproot Ukraine’s system of crony capitalism will compete for power against established interests determined to protect their positions.
