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How strategic collaboration on the bioeconomy can boost climate and nature action

This paper examines the potential for international coordination on bio-based innovations.

Research paper Published 21 October 2024 ISBN: 9781784136253 DOI: 10.55317/9781784136253

A scientist exams lentil plants in a laboratory.

Ana Yang

Director, Environment and Society Centre

Henry Throp

Research Associate, Sustainability Accelerator, Environment and Society Centre

Suzannah Sherman

Research Associate, Sustainability Accelerator, Environment and Society Centre

Sustainable bioeconomies can play a significant role in the transition to low-carbon emitting economies that conserve and protect nature, but a lack of cooperation and coordination is obstructing potential progress.

A collaborative approach that considers the trade-offs of the bioeconomy is needed to manage the roll-out of innovations and any emergent competition for land and resources.

Fragmentation in the geopolitical arena is making the necessary coordination between public and private sectors ever more difficult but there are current forums, such as the G20 and the COP climate summits, in which progress on the bioeconomy can be made.

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02 Trend spotting

Momentum is building behind the transition to bioeconomies and there is growing consensus among public and private sector actors on the potential role of bio-based sectors in addressing environmental and economic development. However, increasing volatility and geopolitical tension has introduced significant challenges to this approach.

The potential benefits of bioeconomies emerged from technological developments that enhanced biological processes to create products more efficiently and at scale. The EU Commission first brought the bioeconomy to prominence as a concept aligned with national development priorities, and international organizations such as the OECD have a long track record of identifying and analysing different bioeconomy archetypes.

In the last couple of years, the bioeconomy has gained renewed interest, and the concept has been expanded to also encompass a wider range of activities.

Initial bioeconomy innovations were mostly centred around first-generation bioenergy solutions, but there were some negative reactions to these due to adverse impacts on water, biodiversity and land-use competition. In the last couple of years, the bioeconomy has gained renewed interest, and the concept has been expanded, sometimes confusingly, to also encompass a wider range of activities, different aspects of the circular economy and sustainability, and some areas with limited direct impact on land use, such as industrial biotechnology. Interest has also been partly driven by the ever-expanding portfolio of new bio-based materials in construction, packaging and emerging climate solutions such as aviation fuels.

To understand the potential shape of the transition and what responses are needed to achieve environmental and social objectives, the next section of this paper looks at global demand drivers for land, the range of regional bioeconomy characteristics, the diversity of sub-sectors, the directions set by national strategies, rising volatility and geopolitical tensions, and new bio-based goods and services.

Increasing demand for land

Changing demands for biological resources in the coming decades will necessitate strategic decisions over the management of productive landscapes. Economic and demographic transitions will be two of the major drivers of demand for land, others include evolving uses of landscapes to tackle both climate change and biodiversity loss.10 The following elements will all have an impact on how land use may change.

Nature-based solutions to socio-environmental issues – How land is used will be an essential part of efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C, as well as to protect and restore biodiversity. As of 2023, 142 countries included quantifiable land-based carbon dioxide removals (CDR) in their climate pledges.11 Current approaches of afforestation, reforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) all require land. 12 Alongside this, in 2022, 196 countries ratified the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, which promises restoration and conservation of 30 per cent of suitable land by 2030.13
Agriculture and food production – Global agriculture has intensified over the past six decades. Faced with rising food consumption and stagnating crop yields, by 2050 farming could require large increases in land area for both food production and non-food products.14
Energy – Global energy demand is rising. This includes growing demand for bioenergy, which accounts for 6 per cent of the current total energy supply.15 Expansion of other forms of energy such as solar and onshore wind also require land.
Urbanization – The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the current building stock will almost double from 223,000 square kilometres (km²) to 415,000 km² by 2050.16 Four-fifths of this growth is expected to be in emerging markets in Asia and Africa, driven by increasing populations and rapid urbanization.17 In Africa, up to 80 per cent of the buildings required in 2050 are yet to be built.18
Materials – Material extraction has tripled in the last 50 years, based on research by the International Resource Panel. Production has increased at a similar rate for biomass, fossil fuels, metal ores and non-metallic minerals. If these historical trends continue, global resource use is expected to grow strongly until 2050 before stabilizing.19 Another driver of increasing resource use is shifting consumption habits associated with a rise in living standards and wealth. Plastics pose a clear issue with mounting resource consumption and pollution (Box 1).

Box 1. Global plastic demand

In 1950, annual global production of plastics was 2 million tonnes. By 2019, this figure had increased by almost 230 times, totalling 460 million tonnes.20
The packaging sector is the most intensive user of plastic, accounting for 31 per cent (143 million tonnes) of plastic use in 2019. Closely followed by the buildings and construction sector, which consumed 17 per cent (77 million tonnes) of the plastic produced in 2019.21 The OECD expects the use of plastics to more than double between 2019 and 2060, mainly driven by economic growth.22

Diverse bioeconomy goals and sectors

There is no one shape of the bioeconomy. The types of bioeconomy strategies that countries choose to deploy depend largely on local factors and constraints, such as the availability of natural resources, feedstocks, access to biotechnology, or natural endowments of biodiversity. While country strategies reflect their local contexts, they tend to incorporate three broad elements: bioresources, biotech and bioecology.23

Bioresources – Some countries view the potential of the bioeconomy as a way to boost economic growth and resource security through the production and trade of biological resources distributed across sectors, like bioplastics, energy, construction, and pulp and paper.
Biotech – Certain countries base their bioeconomy strategy on advances in technology, such as artificial intelligence, synthetic biology or novel industrial processes. Gaining a foothold in this area may provide an opportunity for market predominance and for private sector actors to become key players in the research, design and implementation of new technologies.
Bioecology – Strategies that focus on bioecology place sustainability front and centre. A typical bioecology strategy includes an emphasis on the restoration and conservation of biodiversity and support for healthy ecosystems. Countries with natural endowments of biological diversity may look to improve the circularity of their bio-based industries, as well as implement policies and markets that are aligned with biodiversity targets.

The number of sector-specific bioeconomy strategies is also on the rise. There are common long-standing sectors of the bioeconomy, such as agriculture and forestry, where dedicated strategies have been commonplace for a while. Of the strategies assessed for this paper, across all levels of maturity, over 60 per cent had a focus on agriculture, followed by biomass, and then forestry.24

Commitments across national strategies are beginning to be targeted at traditionally non-bio-based sectors such as energy, construction and chemicals (notably plastics).

There are also emergent new sectors and sub-sectors of the bioeconomy. Commitments across national strategies are beginning to be targeted at traditionally non-bio-based sectors such as energy, construction and chemicals (notably plastics). These sectors made up around 20 per cent of the national strategies assessed for this research paper. 25

Increasing number of national and regional bioeconomy strategies

There is significant momentum behind the bioeconomy across a growing number of countries, as demonstrated by an increase in dedicated bioeconomy strategies.

There are over 50 countries that now have some level of national bioeconomy strategy in place, but the high-level goals of these vary depending on different visions and political priorities.

Regional bioeconomy strategies are also growing in number and scale. Driven by common resource endowments, demand centres or development strategies, such as the EU Bioeconomy Strategy, the Nordic Bioeconomy Programme and the East Africa Regional Bioeconomy Strategy (Box 2).

Figure 1. A map of assessed bioeconomy strategies included in Chatham House research to date

— Source: Circulareconomy.earth (undated), ‘National bioeconomy roadmaps and strategies’, https://circulareconomy.earth/?policy=be-rs.

Figure 1. A map of assessed bioeconomy strategies included in Chatham House research to date — — Source: Circulareconomy.earth (undated), ‘National bioeconomy roadmaps and strategies’, https://circulareconomy.earth/?policy=be-rs.

Box 2. East African Regional Bioeconomy Strategy

The East African Regional Bioeconomy Strategy facilitates collaboration between countries including Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, South Sudan, Rwanda and Burundi.
The goals of the strategy are to support sustainable development in the region through the bioeconomy, focusing on themes like food, fuels and bio-based industries, as well as health and well-being for local communities.
One pillar of the strategy is to better use waste streams from agriculture and forests to improve resource efficiency.
The strategy also aims to encourage trade within the participating countries.

The current national and regional bioeconomy strategies set a direction of travel but often lack clear implementation steps that connect the whole value chain. Of the 23 national bioeconomy roadmaps assessed in the summer 2024 for this paper, there are only six operational strategies that outline time-dependent actions, specified action owners, a governance strategy including monitoring and evaluation, or financing where possible.26

Increasing volatility and geopolitical tension

Recent decades have seen a weakening of multilateral institutions, and a proliferation of informal and regional arrangements across many areas.

Since 2008, and after decades of accelerated expansion, the global integration of trade, markets and finance has slowed down. Trade conflicts between China and the US, Brexit and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on global value chains have exposed and accelerated these changes.27

There has been a shift to a more multipolar world, with a wider distribution of wealth and the willingness of states to assert themselves. China and Russia have emerged as global powers that shape both international laws and expected norms and conduct.28

This dynamic of increased volatility and uncertainty presents a challenge of how to address global public issues, when the international systems become more based on bilateral deals rather than global rules.

Accelerating private sector innovations

Understanding the types and extent of emerging bioeconomy innovations can indicate how current human and financial capital is allocated and the potential future shape of bioeconomy transitions.

Private sector innovation, research and development with public policy support are central to many national and regional bioeconomy strategies. This demonstrates that policymakers recognize the need to find new ways of shifting from fossil fuel-based goods and services.

Innovation in the bioeconomy can take many forms across the supply chain, including how raw materials are grown, managed and processed. For this research paper, a targeted desk-based horizon scan of innovations in material production and supply systems – with stakeholder input from private sector organizations – revealed a range of new possibilities within the bioeconomy.29

This mapping exercise revealed five broad groups of bioeconomy innovation:

Substitute products – such as conversion of atmospheric carbon and energy into microbial protein for use in the food sector.
New (bio-based) processes and efficiency gains – for example, new fermentation processes such as dark fermentation for bio-hydrogen production.
New (bio-based) products – including blending of bio- and fossil fuel-based materials, e.g. reinforcing bio-based or traditional products with nano-scale cellulose for use in construction.
New behaviours – such as cultivating landscapes to promote the provision of ecosystem services, greater uptake of sharing approaches for products, changes in diets, or new combinations of cascading use and re-use of biomass.
Reducing negative externalities – a frontier of innovation in the bioeconomy that seeks to address environmental improvements such as genetically modified trees for restoration, satellite imagery to monitor deforestation, or new land management practices that contribute to ecosystem services.

Beyond these specific bioeconomy innovation types, there is also the transformational potential of advances in other fields and general-purpose technologies to shape the trajectory of bioeconomy development. The impact of advances in artificial intelligence are highly uncertain but potentially game changing.

King, R. et al. (2023), The emerging global crisis of land use, Research Paper, London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, https://doi.org/10.55317/9781784135430.
Land Gap (2023), ‘2023 Update’, https://landgap.org/2023/update.
King et al. (2023), The emerging global crisis of land use.
Convention on Biological Diversity (2022), ‘COP15: Nations Adopt Four Goals, 23 Targets for 2030 In Landmark UN Biodiversity Agreement’, https://www.cbd.int/article/cop15-cbd-press-release-final-19dec2022.
King et al. (2023), The emerging global crisis of land use.
Ibid.; International Energy Agency (IEA) (2023), ‘Bioenergy’, https://www.iea.org/energy-system/renewables/bioenergy.
World Green Building Council (2023), ‘Every building on the planet must be net zero carbon by 2050 to keep global warming below 2°C: new report’, https://worldgbc.org/article/every-building-on-the-planet-must-be-net- zero-carbon-by-2050-to-keep-global-warming-below-2c-new-report.
Ibid.
Ellen MacArthur Foundation (2021), ‘Circular economy in Africa: built environment’, https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/circular-economy-in-africa-built-environment.
International Resource Panel (2024), ‘Global Resources Outlook 2024’, https://www.resourcepanel.org/reports/global-resources-outlook-2024.
Our World in Data (2018), ‘FAQ on plastics’, https://ourworldindata.org/faq-on-plastics.
OECD data processed by Our World in Data (2022), ‘Annual global plastic use, 2019’, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/plastic-waste-by-sector.
OECD (2022), ‘Global Plastics Outlook: Policy scenarios to 2060’, https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/global-plastics-outlook_aa1edf33-en.
Johnson, F. X. et al. (2022), ‘A comparative analysis of bioeconomy visions and pathways based on stakeholder dialogues in Colombia, Rwanda, Sweden, and Thailand’, Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning, 24(6), pp. 680–700, https://doi.org/10.1080/1523908X.2022.2037412.
Chatham House (2024), ‘Policies’, https://circulareconomy.earth.
Ibid.
Ibid.
GIS Reports (2022), ‘Multilateralism in crisis: What’s next for global governance?’, https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/multilateralism-crisis.
European External Action Service (2023), ‘Multipolarity without multilateralism’, https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/multipolarity-without-multilateralism_en.
The innovation horizon-scan was carried out between September 2023 and March 2024. A variety of sources were used to identify bioeconomy innovations, including news articles, academic papers and patents. A stakeholder engagement process was attended by around 30 industry experts from sectors including plastics, construction, chemicals, pulp and paper and agriculture.

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