Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 caused a huge exodus of refugees, now estimated to number almost 7 million (one in six of the pre-war population). The longer the war continues, the fewer refugees are likely to return home. The resulting loss of human capital and capacity presents a serious problem for Ukraine both economically – in addition to directly war-related economic damage – and demographically. Without the return of substantial numbers of refugees, if and when the possibility exists for them to do so safely, Ukraine’s enormous reconstruction needs will be that much harder to meet.
This paper analyses the impacts, both on Ukraine and host countries, of the outflow of refugees since 2022. Notwithstanding continuing uncertainty over the course of the war, and over the prospects for a stable peace negotiated on terms acceptable to Ukraine, the paper considers the conditions necessary to encourage Ukrainian refugees to return to their home country. It explores ‘pull’ factors – such as improved security, or more support for returnees – likely to attract people back to Ukraine. It also considers ‘push’ factors, from the expiry of temporary protection status to high living costs, that might prompt refugees to leave host countries.
The paper offers recommendations for the Ukrainian government, and for Ukraine’s international partners, on addressing the refugee challenge, as well as on engaging more effectively with a Ukrainian diaspora that is anxious to help Ukraine with both the war effort and, ultimately, reconstruction.
A video of the author discussing her paper has been produced as part of this work.
