Host countries vary in their approaches to integrating Ukrainians. On the one hand, most of them encourage Ukrainians to learn the local language and find jobs as soon as possible. Some countries, notably Germany, the UK and Nordic countries, offer generous benefits and social protection for Ukrainians. Others provide only initial support, either a one-time payment (Canada) or several payments spread over the first few months after arrival (Italy). Increasingly, host countries require Ukrainian children to attend local schools instead of continuing distance learning in online Ukrainian schools. Since September 2024, Poland has stopped paying child benefits to Ukrainian families if their children are not enrolled in Polish schools; this has prompted some Ukrainian families to return to their home country.
On the other hand, the temporary protection status provided to Ukrainian refugees by most host countries only allows them to reside in that country temporarily. The EU Temporary Protection Directive, activated in March 2022 to give protection to Ukrainians until ‘the situation in Ukraine allows [their] safe and durable return’, has been extended until March 2026. However, the years spent by Ukrainians under temporary protection in EU countries do not count towards obtaining permanent residency status, normally available after several years of uninterrupted residency. It is unclear what will happen once the temporary protection to Ukrainians ends, either when it expires or when some sort of a negotiated settlement with Russia is signed (although this might not necessarily mean that Ukraine is safe enough to return to, or that a stable peace has been achieved).
The case of Syrian refugees offers an interesting parallel. After the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in December 2024, the UK and some EU countries ceased to accept new asylum applications from Syrians while Austria announced immediate plans for deportations. This serves as a warning of how host countries may approach Ukrainian refugees if or when a ceasefire is signed (even if no credible security guarantees are offered to Ukraine that would prevent a possible new invasion by Russia). Unless changes to the EU Long-term Residence Directive are adopted, Ukrainians would have few options to obtain residence permits to remain in the EU after the end of temporary protection. As it stands now, only those who meet strict criteria related to work and income would be able to remain. All the others, including those in vulnerable categories, might be forced to return to their home country, despite their intentions and efforts to integrate and settle – as first encouraged by host-country governments.
In the UK, both the previous Conservative and the current Labour government policy is that Ukrainians under temporary protection will not have a right to permanent settlement. People who arrived in the UK under the Ukraine Schemes visas, which were initially issued for three years, are able to extend these for a further 18 months from February 2025. However, time spent in the UK under these visas will not count towards an eventual right to permanent settlement. This is different, for instance, from Hong Kong nationals who are under humanitarian protection and would be able to obtain settled status in the UK after five years of residence. Therefore, as things stand, Ukrainians will be expected to leave the UK after 4.5 years of living and integrating there – or to convert their status into other visa types, such as a skilled worker visa, which requires meeting a high threshold of qualifying criteria. This situation clashes with the intentions of Ukrainians in the UK regarding return, and might become a challenge for the UK government.Ukrainians under temporary protection have submitted numerous petitions to the UK parliament asking for the right to settled status. The Home Office response has reiterated the temporary status of Ukrainians in the UK and has ‘recognised that the country of Ukraine will need the return of its citizens, from around the world, to help recover and rebuild their economy and infrastructure’.
Some countries apply travel restrictions to Ukrainian refugees under temporary protection. Norway offers a time-limited protection status which does not lead to permanent settlement and does not allow refugees to travel back and forth between Norway and Ukraine. This means that if they do travel, they risk losing the ‘collective protection’ that most Ukrainians received. There may be exceptions in a limited number of circumstances, such as a death or serious illness of a close relative, but no pre-authorizations are given and the decision is made at the discretion of Norwegian authorities only after the trip. This approach could deter Ukrainians from undertaking any travel to Ukraine. The US also does not allow Ukrainians on Uniting for Ukraine (U4U) visas to travel to Ukraine or abroad without obtaining a new humanitarian ‘parole’ for re-entry.These types of travel restrictions could lead to the erosion of refugees’ links to their home country and could increase the likelihood of non-return to Ukraine.
At the same time, other countries may want to hold on to Ukrainian refugees after the end of the war and may offer them simplified pathways to permanent settlement. Ukrainians already contribute significantly to the local economies in countries like Poland and Czechia, where the budget income from their taxes and spending exceeds the expenditure to host them. Some countries may be interested in keeping Ukrainian refugees, many of whom are young and highly skilled, as a solution to their labour shortages and demographic challenges, like ageing populations.
The Ukrainian government’s desire to bring people back may clash with the intentions of refugees themselves, and with the economic and demographic interests of those host countries that are benefiting from the presence of Ukrainians.
To summarize, countries hosting Ukrainian refugees will face a difficult choice if and when a peace agreement in Ukraine is signed (which might not necessarily mean the end of the war). They will need to decide what to do with Ukrainians who have settled, integrated and wish to continue living abroad. The Ukrainian government’s desire to bring people back may clash with the intentions of refugees themselves, and with the economic and demographic interests of those host countries that are benefiting from the presence of Ukrainians. Ukraine’s partners need to be prepared to balance these competing factors and respond to the challenge in a manner that does not jeopardize Ukraine’s future and that, at the same time, takes into account the human aspect of the issue.
