Iran and its allied groups in the Middle East form a loose coalition often collectively referred to as the ‘axis of resistance’. The axis suffered significant setbacks in 2024, amid conflict with Israel and other political turbulence, leading some observers to conclude that its members – which now, along with Iran, comprise Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and parts of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq – have been seriously weakened or are even on the verge of defeat. Notwithstanding the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime – also until recently a part of the axis – in Syria, however, our research shows that the axis has historically proven much more resilient than this view allows.
Groups such as the PMF, Hezbollah or the Houthis are not mere ‘non-state actors’, but are entrenched within state structures and wield significant power in their own right. Axis members have developed economic relationships with multiple entities and states, both regionally and globally; these networks allow the axis to withstand external threats and policy interventions such as military strikes and sanctions.
This research paper examines how the axis uses cross-border financial flows and energy trading to transcend the traditional institutional and geographic boundaries of the states its members operate in. The paper shows how Western policy interventions to date have been unsuccessful owing to two factors: a focus on targeting the axis’s individual components; and a limited understanding of its regional and global networks. The paper proposes a new approach, centred on mapping the axis’s full reach, careful engagement with individual ‘brokers’ within its networks, and enforcement of accountability by enabling civil society and reformists.
