Evolving trends in space technology present both opportunities and risks for NATO’s member states. Commercialization, emerging technologies and cost reductions increase access to space, but also amplify cyber risks to space-based assets.
National and international infrastructure is increasingly dependent on outer space services and products, for example: financial transactions; sea, land and air navigation; military manoeuvres on the battlefield; Earth observation from orbit for emergency/disaster monitoring and atmospheric composition; and internet and phone communications. Moreover, strategic weapons systems depend on space assets for command, control, communication and consultations, early warning systems for surveillance and reconnaissance, and missile defence.
Military use of outer space is not a new phenomenon, but several key trends help further our understanding of how space technology has evolved in this domain. These are:
- Commercialization: Outer space is no longer an area that is out of reach for commercial actors. Rather, investments by the private sector have significantly reduced the barriers to accessing space, particularly through advances in satellite launches and communication technologies. The role of commercial operators has been prominent during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, where US-based companies like SpaceX have provided critical satellite internet services through Starlink, enabling Ukrainian forces to maintain secure communications despite disruptions to traditional infrastructure. Commercialization is also expanding into areas such as sensors, satellite constellations and space-based data services, which are increasingly integrated into national and allied security frameworks. The reliance on space assets is likely to increase even further in the future, especially as space technology becomes more commercialized, leading more countries to invest in this sector. This shift is exemplified by the US Department of Defense’s release of its 2024 Commercial Space Integration Strategy, which aims to incorporate commercial space solutions into national security architectures. The US Space Force has similarly pivoted to a new model for integrating commercial space solutions, to ‘focus on stronger partnerships with commercial partners and allied nations’. The growing reliance on commercial space-based assets underscores the need for robust partnerships between defence organizations and private operators to ensure the security and resilience of these systems.
- Financial cost calculation: The commercialization of space has also drastically reduced the financial barriers to entry, enabling more actors to invest in the space domain. In particular, several private initiatives have lowered the costs to launch into outer space. The price of heavy launches to low Earth orbit (LEO), for example, has fallen by 95 per cent in large part due to efficiencies introduced by the private sector. This reduction has facilitated the proliferation of small satellites, like CubeSats and mega satellite constellations, including Starlink and Amazon’s Project Kuiper.
- New manufacturing methods: Space-based additive manufacturing – for example, in-space 3D printing – reduces the weight needed to be sent into space, allowing for easier launches with reduced amounts of fuel used.
- Use of emerging technologies in space exploration: Advancements in other technology areas also open new ways to explore outer space. For instance, AI-enabled applications provide necessary information to space exploration rovers, enabling them to land safely in challenging space conditions.
- Dual-use elements: Dual-use technologies and assets in outer space, which serve both civilian and military purposes, blur the line between peaceful and potentially disruptive applications. For instance, service-oriented space infrastructure, including global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) and communication satellites, serve both civilian needs – enabling services like safe navigation and internet access – and military functions – supporting defence and security operations on Earth. This duality can complicate how international legal and regulatory frameworks for outer space security are established. In addition to dual-use capabilities, emerging dual-purpose technologies introduce further complexities. Activities like satellite servicing, in-orbit servicing and manufacturing (ISAM), debris removal and space logistics are inherently ambiguous in their applications. While these technologies can advance sustainability and resilience in outer space by repairing or refuelling satellites and clearing debris, they could also be repurposed for harmful actions, including disabling or interfering with other satellites.
These trends present both opportunities for and risks to the defence posture of NATO and members more generally, as modern warfighting strategies increasingly depend on secure access to and use of outer space. However, the growing development of counterspace capabilities by other actors poses a direct threat to these systems, with the potential to disrupt NATO’s security and defence posture in the long run. Understanding security implications at an earlier stage and laying out necessary risk-mitigation measures is fundamental to shaping NATO’s best practices and guidelines in the space domain.
