While Western governments and like-minded states have sought to go beyond localized interventions by adopting regional approaches to conflict resolution, most responses remain reactive and fragmented. Attempts at regional analyses are often hampered by bureaucratic divides, and by the conflicting priorities and budgets of government departments. For instance, the migration route from Edo State in Nigeria through Niger to Libya spans multiple geopolitical zones, each managed by different divisions within foreign ministries. This leads to disjointed interventions.
While Western governments and like-minded states have sought to go beyond localized interventions by adopting regional approaches to conflict resolution, most responses remain reactive and fragmented.
In tracing transit routes for gold, oil and migrant smuggling, this report argues that policymakers must move beyond state-centric frameworks and adopt systemic approaches that account for the interconnected nature of conflict economies. To more effectively manage conflict and mitigate its most violent dimensions, we call for policymakers in the UK, the US and elsewhere to exert influence through enhanced engagement with multi-aligned allies and adversaries alike, leverage economic power in conflict resolution, strengthen accountability mechanisms to ensure transparency and enforcement, and foster cooperation within foreign policy bureaucracies through strategic resource allocation. Additionally, the report underscores the importance of harmonizing transnational analysis across policy agendas, and of adapting conflict analysis to better reflect modern complexities.
Conflict analysis needs to take account of the fact that – as mentioned – in this era of multi-alignment, the ‘West’ itself has been significantly eroded as a cohesive bloc, undermined by both external and internal challenges (see also Box 1). Across the Global South, Western diplomatic postures are increasingly perceived as hypocritical, particularly given the stark divergence between the robust defence of Ukraine against Russian aggression and the muted response to, or active support of, Israel’s military actions in Gaza – actions that UN experts have characterized as genocidal. This has eroded much of the moral authority that Western leaders once claimed as the foundation of their strategic positioning. Simultaneously, some Western leaders, such as President Trump, have actively challenged pillars of the post-Second World War international framework – referred to at times as the rules-based order – by rejecting multilateral institutions and questioning defence commitments in institutions such as NATO. This dual erosion – from external critiques and internal dissent – necessitates an acknowledgment that the monolithic ‘Western consensus’ no longer carries the weight it formerly did in diplomatic negotiations.
About our XCEPT work
This report is the culmination of Chatham House’s work under the Cross-Border Conflict Evidence, Policy and Trends (XCEPT) research programme. XCEPT explores the complex and evolving nature of transnational conflict across the Middle East and North Africa, the Horn of Africa and the Sahel, and South and Southeast Asia. Funded by UK International Development from the UK government, XCEPT seeks to better understand conflict-affected borderlands, how conflicts connect across borders, and the factors that shape violent and peaceful behaviour, to inform effective policy and programme responses.
The Chatham House XCEPT research stream, operating from 2020 to 2025, brought together primary research from across conflict-affected regions, using a mix of in-person interviews, focus groups, and innovative tools such as satellite data analysis and open source intelligence (OSINT). Our researchers conducted over 150 interviews in Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Iraq, Kenya, Lebanon, Libya, Nigeria and Sudan, and convened seven focus groups in Iraq, Lebanon and Nigeria. Our project team engaged with political, economic and military elites and analysts, as well as with local communities. Throughout the project, the team maintained close dialogue with policymakers in the UK, the US, Europe and the relevant regions to refine and test its findings.
Our research spanned a wide range of thematic areas, including supply-chain analysis, state–society relations, migration, organized crime, smuggling, gender studies and conflict response. The overarching conceptual framework was developed as part of an edited e-book published by Global Policy, entitled Borders of Conflict: Navigating Policy in a Transnational Ecosystem.
Our research was organized around three transnational case studies, each examining how supply chains intersect with conflict economies across and beyond the Middle East and Africa. Tim Eaton directed the Libya case study, analysing how conflict has impacted the expansion of transnational migrant smuggling and trafficking in persons from sub-Saharan Africa through Libya to Europe. His pathbreaking research undertook a conflict systems approach to analyse the transnational supply chain and the economic drivers of conflict. Ahmed Soliman led the Sudan’s borderlands case study, drawing on his networks to map the movement of commodities such as sesame and gold across these regions. The Iran and Levant case study was led by Renad Mansour and Hayder Al-Shakeri, who analysed multiple interconnected supply chains – spanning goods such as tomatoes, bread, medicine, and oil and gas, as well as flows of drugs, weapons and cash – to better understand the region’s multi-aligned political, economic and security dynamics.
These studies included deep dives into the Iran-linked ‘axis of resistance’, the conflict economy of sesame production and trade in border regions straddling Ethiopia and Sudan, and the role of migrant smuggling in perpetuating Libyan instability. In parallel, Chatham House produced short commentaries and interactive explainers on issues such as Syria’s Captagon trade, the political economy of pharmaceutical distribution in Iraq, the gold trade’s impact on the conflict in Ethiopia, and Libya’s conflict-driven rise in transnational migrant smuggling.
A key part of Chatham House’s XCEPT work has been its effort to operationalize transnational policy approaches by encouraging policymakers to move beyond state-centric conflict responses, specifically in relation to contexts where conflicts spill over borders and blur the lines between war, organized crime and economic survival. The project has also integrated cross-cutting themes of gender and social inclusion to ensure that policy recommendations reflect the diverse violent impacts of conflict on populations.
