As the world becomes geopolitically more fragmented, conflicts are increasing in complexity and number – up by almost three-quarters since the 2000s. In this shifting order, conflict is being internationalized in new ways as states, armed groups and other actors cultivate adaptive alliances with multiple partners across the political and ideological spectrum. Many of these relationships are motivated by economic survival or pragmatism, entrenching profit-driven dynamics that are often impervious to external policy intervention. Internationally led stabilization and peacebuilding policies must adapt accordingly.
This report, the culmination of a five-year project, considers the pressing question of how to respond more effectively to such challenges in an era in which traditional rigid geopolitical spheres of influence are dissolving. To trace this, we explore geo-economic fronts in this shifting global power order via three case studies: the transnational trade of Sudan’s gold; the adaptive supply chains around oil of Iranian origin; and the networks for transporting migrants via Libya to Europe. In each regional case study, we illustrate how the ‘multi-alignment’ of actors demands a new strategic paradigm to stabilization and peacebuilding.
The report offers a range of recommendations for international policymakers, including adopting a transnational approach to conflict analysis, strategically leveraging economic power, brokering influence through pragmatic and multi-aligned engagement, improving bureaucratic coordination, and developing accountability mechanisms in collaboration with civil society.
