The comprehensive rebuff that American voters have given to President Donald Trump and Republican candidates in the midterm elections is likely to produce a small but important constraint on how the US behaves abroad. But it will also change how other countries treat it – allies, trading partners and rivals alike.
Even with the Democrats in control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the president retains much power over foreign policy – but not all. Congress is now likely to challenge any sustained deployment of forces in the Gulf. And it will reassert its authority over trade and tariffs, even if it does not amend the latter.
The most immediate change is likely to be on the conflict with Iran. Voters put the cost of living – ‘affordability’ – top of their concerns. Yet, as they went to the polls, gasoline prices at the pump hit a high. Rising costs are largely a result of the continued conflict in and around the Strait of Hormuz, which Americans know Trump initiated alongside Israel and has failed to end. Trump could now indeed ‘lash out’ as some have predicted with more strikes, in an attempt to secure concessions from Tehran. But there is no reason to believe that a military solution will fare any better than before.
The Republican party has been among the biggest losers from the war. The race for the presidency in 2028 started the moment the midterm results became clear. And GOP candidates are likely to be vehemently against continuing the conflict. Pressure within the US for a resolution will rise even if Benjamin Netanyahu, now Israel’s caretaker prime minister after his own electoral setback, urges a new assault.
Ukraine
The change in Congress will probably not mean more arms or money for Ukraine. There is deep, rare consensus among both Democrats and Republicans that Europe should now pay its way on its own defence – and that supporting Ukraine is part of that. Trump has won that longstanding argument, they feel, and they have no desire to undermine that victory.
However, the new Congress does not share Trump’s apparent warmth towards Russian President Vladimir Putin. Traditional hostility or wariness towards Moscow prevails.
Trump, his son-in-law Jared Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff might still dangle business deals before the Kremlin, hoping for peace in return. But they will be constrained by a tougher mood and even formal opposition in Congress. No wonder that Putin’s spokesperson said, as the results became clear, that he hoped peace-making efforts would continue.
China
The same congressional wariness may well extend to China. One of the biggest disruptions that Trump could cause in his remaining two years would be to try to strike a deal with Beijing that included explicit acknowledgement of Taiwan as the sovereign territory of China. Trump’s recent decision to pause a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan, to avoid aggravating trade relations with China, could be interpreted by Beijing as support for its views. Congress has, again across the political divide, been much warier of China. It now seems that some tech companies are leaning that way too.
The fate of Trump’s tariffs is unclear. For the moment they will stay, although Congress has been challenging the president’s right to impose them without its consent, through the Supreme Court.
Politicians of all stripes find tariffs attractive for the revenue they bring. But others will look at the disruption to trade they cause (US car manufacturing was until last year interwoven with Canada’s) and their impact on inflation. That last point is hotly debated among economists given that inflation did not rise as much as expected when the tariffs were first imposed. But politicians in search of securing a lower cost of living may look again at arguments for repealing the tariffs.
A city on a hill?
Most of all, the elections may change how the world looks at America. They go some way to answering the big questions raised by Trump’s second presidency: Have Americans changed? Are his actions what they really want, given they have voted for him twice? And is US democracy robust and capable of securing peaceful changes of power? To that extent, some will find the results reassuring.
For US allies in Europe, Japan and South Korea, they may feel more confident in asserting their interests and values – although they will still be nervous of losing US support. Trump’s sudden apparent removal of arms support to Israel in the days before the election shows how whimsical that can be.
For the US’s enemies and rivals, this result will inject uncertainty into their calculations. But it will also give them reason to probe for weakness, even if that is just by exploiting the repeated changes in policy inherent in the democratic system. Both Russia and China will brace themselves for a cooling of relations. But they will also explore the implications of the US being unable to hold consistently to its key positions for more than a few years.
Given Trump’s personality and desire for attention, nothing can rule out impetuous and dramatic action, for instance on Iran or Taiwan. But he has lost any aura of being a winner that he retained. Politicians seeking to run in two years’ time will begin to distance themselves from him and try to constrain him from actions that could tarnish their chances. They may hope that he restricts his attention to the memorials in his name he is so keen to create.