Elections and Political Systems

The Africa Programme analyses developments during and between African election cycles, and sets out the wider context, trends and influences behind the headlines.

Image — Lazarus Chakwera, leader of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) arriving at the Mtandire suburb of the capital Lilongwe for an election rally. Photo by AMOS GUMULIRA/AFP via Getty Images.

Exploring the drivers of the diverging and diversifying systems of government across Africa continues to be a key focus of the Africa Programme’s work on elections and political systems. Understanding these drivers is crucial if transparent institutions are to be fostered and sustained.

Since its inception, the Africa Programme has produced regular publications and hosted events aimed at helping international policymakers better understand the domestic and regional implications of the increasing number of elections held on the continent.

Programme staff regularly participate in pre-election assessments and election observation missions across Africa: most recently in Mozambique, Malawi, Botswana and South Africa. The 2024 South African election saw the African National Congress (ANC) lose its majority for the first time since the country’s first democratic elections in 1994. The Africa Programme published pre-election analysis and subsequently explored the implications of the new coalition government.

Ahead of Nigeria’s 2023 elections, we hosted three of the front-running Presidential candidates: Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Peter Gregory Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. These public events allowed for the analysis of the candidates’ policy priorities. The programme also hosted Professor Mahmood Yakubu, chairman of Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), enabling insight into INEC’s electoral preparations. Analysis and commentaries were published following the elections reflecting on the factors contributing to low voter turn-out and the lessons learned from the newly implemented bi-modal voter system.

Project work

Our guests discuss issues surrounding President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s constitutional amendments and possible ways out of the political impasse they created.

This episode discusses the lead-up to Tanzania’s election and the long-term future for the country.

Nigeria’s young democracy has been undermined by corruption in the form of vote markets. Using survey evidence, this paper examines the drivers of vote-selling.

With voters impatient for better government, Angola’s parliamentary elections on 24 August will be the closest since democratic elections were first introduced.

Raila Odinga shares his vision for Kenya and Africa in an increasingly uncertain world, and reflects on the political goal of unity presented by his Azimio la Umoja coalition movement.

HE Hakainde Hichilema, president of the Republic of Zambia, discusses his vision for Zambia’s development.

Abel Abate Demissie summarises the election landscape in Ethiopia ahead of the polls scheduled for 21 June 2021.

With elections about to finally start, Ethiopia’s growing unrest and Tigray’s catastrophic conflict highlights an urgent need to build a political consensus.

Despite a positive record as one of Africa’s most resilient democracies, electoral violence has threatened every election cycle, and now does so again.

These two countries offer clear examples of how easily institutional principles underpinning democracy can be manipulated in the interests of those in power.

Sudan is looking towards a brighter future after the initialling of the Juba peace agreement on August 31, an important first step towards bringing peace to the conflict zones and laying the foundation for democratic transition and economic reform throughout the country.

After the sudden death of Côte d’Ivoire’s Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly, President Ouattara is now deciding whether to stand for a third term. However, such a move would face challenges internationally, and particularly in West Africa.

The overturning of the result in the fresh presidential contest sets a bold precedent for the continent, as a process built upon the resilience of democratic institutions and the collective spirit of opposition.

But deep scepticism and resentments will not be easily defused.

This paper examines how the deal to end civil conflict was achieved and highlights potential risks in the run-up to the October 2019 elections and beyond.

International engagement will be critical to the success of Nigeria’s elections, but its international partners – in particular the US – appear less engaged than they were four years ago.

Past events

Yemen experts and policymakers will discuss the impact and trajectory of the instability in the Red Sea followed by an interview with General Tareq Saleh, Presidential Leadership Council (PLC).

A discussion and analysis of the key priorities ahead of the coming elections.

This panel discussion explores perspectives on the war and discusses scenarios for its evolution and resolution.