Kenya’s 2022 elections: Priorities for unity and policy change

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Good afternoon, everybody. My name is Alex Vines. I’m the Director of the Africa Programme at Chatham House and I’m really pleased today to be welcoming back the Rt. Hon. Raila Odinga EGH, who’s obviously the Party Leader of the Orange Democratic Movement. He’s also the High Representative for Infrastructure and Development for the African Union. For Hon. Raila, Chatham House is a familiar location. This is the third time he’s here. I was joking to him earlier, “Maybe it’s third time lucky,” we’ll see.

So, Hon. Raila is going to talk about Kenya’s 2022 elections: Priorities for Unity and Policy Change. As you know, we had Mr Ruto here last week. So, Chatham House is looking at the Kenyan elections and it’s part of a series that we’re doing and we’re very grateful to both the candidates, the key candidates that are running in the elections in August to come to Chatham House and explain to us their vision for Kenya after these elections.

This meeting is fully on the record. It is being livestreamed. Please, if you’ve got your phones, put them on silent. If you’d like to tweet, we strongly encourage to use #CHAfrica and we’ll make sure that there’s a equitable Q&A session after the presentation, both from people who are here in the hall with us today, but also those who are with us globally, who are livestreaming. So, I don’t think I want to say anything more, except again, welcome back, Hon. Raila, and to invite you to give a presentation. Thank you very much for coming to Chatham House. Welcome back [applause].

Rt Hon Raila Odinga EGH

Thank you. Thank you to – so much, Mr Chairman, for this – that welcome and, also, for the invitation to come back to Chatham House. As you’ve rightly pointed out, it’s not my first time to be here. I’ve had occasion to address the audience here before. I’m told that today you don’t have the full house here because this meeting is being livestreamed and a number of other people are watching online, because of COVID situation. But I want to say – I want to thank you once again for inviting me to this very historic institution, where great ideas are openly discussed and contested among the thought leaders, global statesmen, policymakers, and academics.

I come here at a special time in my own political life. Just last week, I was nominated by the Azimio la Umoja, Kenya’s largest political movement, as its candidate for the President of the Republic of Kenya. It is an honour and privilege for me to be entrusted with the opportunity, if Kenya so decide on August 9th this year, to lead my country at a time of great suffering in the world, and that is why discussions such as these, in a forum as important as this, could not have come at a better time. So, thank you once again.

The world is going through very uncertain times. Notwithstanding the COVID-19 pandemic, we are currently faced with a crisis in Ukraine that is sending thousands of people into neighbouring European countries as refugees. The Ukraine crisis, like the COVID-19, is a global phenomenon. The United Nations needs to urgently take leadership in finding a solution through diplomacy and dialogue, already initiated in recent discussions in the Security Council, and Kenya has taken a very firm stand on this issue.

In Kenya, we stand to lose about ten billion Kenya shillings’ worth of exports to Russia as a result of sanctions. That is about US $100 million. We export coffee – tobacco, coffee, tea, spices, live trees, plants, bulbs, roots, cut flowers, edible fruits, nuts and melons to both Russia and Ukraine. In 2020, we imported wheat, maize and fertilisers worth about US $406 million from Russia. This might be equally adversely affected with the sanctions and the disruptions of war, at a time our economy can hardly afford such a stress.

We, in Kenya, know too well the cost of war as a result of the conflicts in our neighbouring countries. Our interventions in Somalia, necessary as it is, has been very expensive to us. It is estimated that we spend at least US $2.8 million of personnel costs alone. As the African Union High Representative for Infrastructure Development, I’ve come to deeply appreciate the need to – for linking countries through infrastructure to promote trade, development and peace. We would rather use the little money we have in financing development and fighting wars, also appointing peacekeepers in our war-torn neighbours, necessary as this has become.

As the 5th President of the Republic of Kenya and as a champion of democratisation and good governance in Africa, I will give primacy to the pursuit of conflict resolution and continental peace within the framework of the African Union. In this regard, we, in East Africa, are proud of the progress in the East African community, which has now expanded its membership and which now stands at seven: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is now the latest entrant. This now creates a landmass that spans between – from the Atlantic Ocean to the Indian Ocean.

In the middle of COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on our economies, the world needs multilateralism more than ever before. So, the need for multilateralism when the COVID struck, the real scandal about the global response to COVID-19 has been the vaccine inequity, or what has been called ‘vaccine apartheid’. Because of international outcry, these inequities are now being addressed. I want to personally express my appreciation for countries, especially the UK, Europe and the US, for addressing vaccine strategies in Kenya and Africa. However, we need a more structural solution to vaccine inequity to avoid the recurrence of what has happened in – with COVID. Vaccine manufacturing capacity in Africa is urgent, as is the licensing of vaccines for local production, directly through the vaccination process continentally, and here, we are happy that Kenya has now signed an agreement to be able to have vaccines produced locally, in Kenya.

Multilateralism will also save us from senseless conflicts, like the one we are currently witnessing between Russia and Ukraine. I must say that wars of aggression against sovereign states violate the cardinal principles of sovereignty and the unavailability of borders of our state. In Africa, we now realise that reopening grievances over colonial borders would upend us all. It’s a Pandora’s Box that must never be touched and that is why the African Union, and before it, the Organisation of Africa Unity, has struck religiously to the International Law Principle of uti possidetis juris. It provides that newly formed sovereign states should retain the internal borders that their preceding dependent areas had before their independence.

Kenya’s position at the United Nations, in full support of the immediate cessation of hostility by Russia and as such, for common peace, which has found widespread international support. Even though the sanctions imposed on Russia, but the West will have the economic interests of Kenya and Africa, they are actions that I support. Rather than beat the drum to war, let us ring the bells of peace and summon all and sundry to the roundtable, where all conflicts can be resolved through dialogue. It is in this spirit of dialogue that His Excellency President Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta and I, resolved in March 2018, that Kenya’s longstanding conflicts on these agreements, among our communities and political parties, could be resolved through dialogue. We held extensive discussions, looked into our history, the genesis and evolution of political disagreements and the contradictions we needed to pay attention to, then we shook hands publicly and announced our commitment to create a political system that would accommodate our social, ethnic and political differences in an inclusive, democratic process. This is what came to be known as the Building Bridges Initiative, or BBI.

The initiative held public consultations and suggested various reforms with regard to public policy, the constitution, elections, inclusivity in government, endemic corruption and improving the general wellbeing of our people. The BBI is currently tied up in the Supreme Court, whose ruling we shall abide by. The spirit of dialogue and the handshake continues in the Azimio la Umoja movement, on whose ticket I’m seeking to be the President. Azimio is a broad national democratic movement, which puts premium on our national unity, inclusive development and transparent and accountable use of public resources. I’m convinced that our constitution still needs some reforms. For example, a candid look at the relationship between Parliament and the Executive is urgent.

The 2010 Constitution introduced a devolved system of government that has brought tremendous changes in the governance and distribution and the use of public resources at the grassroots. The evolution is here with us to stay. We can only make it better through higher allocation of the national budget to the counties. The constitution stipulates that “At least 15% of the budget should be located to the counties.” We, in Azimio la Umoja coalition, propose the allocation be raised to at least 35% of the national budget. I will pursue this proposal. I have always believed in the dictum that “A central government does best when it governs least at the local level.”

Article 43 of our constitution guarantees Kenyan’s “basic social and economic rights, such as education, health, food, water, housing, and social security.” I will purpose to implement this very important article. The COVID-19 pandemic has left our economy struggling. I intend to radically shift focus, supporting the micro, small and medium enterprises and give them resources for scaling up and fill gaps emerging from the pandemic. I also plan to provide a supportive regulatory framework, including providing linkages with the formal pri – formal and private sector and public sector, so that the micro, small and medium enterprises can thrive. I plan to increase the agricultural productivity by providing inputs to smallholders, in addition to farm subsidies to farmers, to enable us to produce for consumption and export.

In the long-term, I plan that – our plan for the Azimio to prioritise an industrialisation policy that is export-minded and that allows the private sector to drive the export agenda. I will support the private sector to lead a shift from exporting raw materials and agricultural produce and venture into industrial manufacturing and the eyes on the international market. We will continue to expand the frontiers of quality public education and also pay more attention to skills oriented education at a basic level, to prepare students for productive work when they do not pursue higher professions at college and above.

The current government has done a great job with regard to universal health coverage. My government will take up from where the Jubilee Government has reached and eliminate the difference„ in terms of quality and cost between the public and private health facilities. Universal access might be universal access in want and in deed. I tend to improve health knowledge and awareness among our people, so that family, community and preventive healthcare are part of our healthcare infrastructure. I also intend to establish an institute for biotechnology and genetic engineering in Kenya, so as to enhance our domestic capacity to develop vaccines and pharmaceuticals.

Social protection will be central in the delivery of social services to the poor and the indigent under my government. I told our citizens that our major reason I hope – that one major reason that I hope to be their leader is to help lift the extreme poor and vulnerable families, so that they can access the basics, later support themselves. We will also mount serious war on corruption and unveil fundamental reforms to the structure of our economy.

Much has been said about Kenya’s indebtedness. Kenya is now approaching US $100 billion in public debt. This puts Kenya in the group of the most indebted – the debt stressed middle and lower-income developing countries now being forced into IMF credit and IM supervised austerity programmes. Such austerity programmes are usually implemented in the sole interest of satisfying a debt repayment at the expense of people’s livelihoods. You have no choice in the matter. We’ll have to seek the indulgence and co-operation of our development partners to negotiate our debt. I will also audit our debt to establish its actual size.

We acknowledge that even our troubles with the debt are, in the part, caused by corruption, kleptocracy and a state capture. We’ll mount a serious war on corruption. Corruption, as it manifests today, is a global phenomenon. We need a new global partnership around this critical issue. Although the tax burden on Kenyans is now unbearable, I will make sure Kenya does not default on debt repayment. In future, we will strive to borrow at a favourable interest rate, negotiate repayment periods that are not stressful, and invest in enterprises that give good social and economic returns.

Finally, Kenya is committed to rolling back global warming through drastic reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, particularly at the industrial and corporate level, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. As Kenya’s Prime Minister in the year 2008-2013, I was at the forefront in the struggle to save our water towers, expand our forestation, and increase largescale production of green energy by increased investment in geothermal, solar, and wind power. My government will move systematically to replace fossil fuels with green energy in production and transportation generally. We have done what you could do to save and pre – to concern – and preserve our water towers in the country. Of course, this came at a political price that we’ve said we are ready to pay, so that we can be able to protect our environment. I am con – I’ll continue to be committed to ensuring that Kenya contributes its part in this global undertaking to make our environment much more safe for future generations. I thank you [applause].

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Thank you very much, Rt. Hon. Raila Odinga for laying out your vision for Kenya if you get elected President in August. We have plenty of time for Q&A, so the hands are already going up. Just a reminder to those of you that are livestreaming with us. If you’re on Zoom, you can indicate that you want to ask a question. Either send your question in and we’ll also try and unmute a few of you to give you that opportunity to ask the question live. My apologies if you are on our livestream and not on the Zoom platform. You’re not going to be able to ask a question, but I hope you’re enjoying what you’re seeing and do tweet if you want to.

So, let me go across the room now, and the hands are up, so I’ll take a cluster of questions, Hon. Raila. The gentleman there, do rec – yeah, you sir, please introduce yourself and ask your question. Just one question, please, ‘cause…

Fred

Okay.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

…we’re going to get plenty.

Fred

Thank you very much, Rt Hon Raila Odinga. My name is Fred, I teach political science at King’s College London, and…

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Can you just speak up with who you are?

Fred

My name is Fred. I teach political at King’s College London and my question is in regard to your programme for the middleclass in Kenya, because your opponent, William Ruto, has this bottom up approach about the poor. You also have this welfare programme for the poor, but nobody’s talking about the middleclass in Kenya who have to pay the taxation to take care for this programme. So, what exactly are you going to do for the Kenyan middleclass, in terms of improving their welfare? Thank you.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Okay. Don’t worry, we’re going through the room, Yousef. Yeah?

Julius Mbaluto

Afternoon, my name is Julius Mbaluto. I’m a Broadcast Journalist here in the UK. Prime Minister, my question focuses on the youth and the future of…

Dr Alex Vines OBE

But your name, your name?

Julius Mbaluto

Oh, sorry, Julius Mbaluto.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Fine, go ahead.

Julius Mbaluto

Yeah, my question focuses on the youth in Kenya and the future. Prime Minister, a lot of developing countries they do have what we call innovation hubs scattered across, whereby if a child has a brilliant idea, they take it there and then, government, kind of, supports that to keep innovating. I know Kenya is very innovative, with M-PESA, for example, is taking, you know, money transfer to the next level in Kenya. What are your programmes like when it comes to help youth, in terms of innovation?

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Thank you very much, and let’s get – right over here, but one question, please, yes, guaranteed?

Sylvanus Wekesa

Yes.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Okay, go ahead. Nice to see you again.

Sylvanus Wekesa

Thank you. Rt. Hon., welcome back to London. My question is regards to your idea…

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Also…

Sylvanus Wekesa

Oh…

Dr Alex Vines OBE

…just…

Sylvanus Wekesa

…my name is Wekesa, I also teach at King’s College London. My question regards with your agenda point number ten and that’s you speak about at the administrative continuity, and you’ve touched on corruption. Your brother, President Kenyatta, admittedly that he couldn’t do anything about corruption and you’ve been at the forefront of condemning corruption, from saying Kenyatta stole the Eurobond. I wonder what should your government do if you’re going to continue with the same administrative, in terms of fighting the same corruption with regards to the Panama Papers, the Pandora Papers, the chems are COVID billionaires? Like, what’s different are you going to do, and does administrative continuity mean also inheriting the lethargic fight against corruption? Thank you.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Thank you very much. We’re going to take those three and then we’ll come back. So, I’ll do another round in the hall and then, I’ll go for a livestream after that and then I’ll come back to you. Please go ahead.

Rt Hon Raila Odinga EGH

This one is about – Fred’s talked about the plans that we have for the middleclass. Of course, as you see, there’s been a lot of emphasis on the underprivileged class, which is the poor. The middleclass, of course, know very well how to look after themselves, but they are not people who are looking for the very basic requirements, like basic shelter, food on the table, and so on. Middleclass are looking for, for example, affordable housing, in terms of shelter, they’re looking for good schools for their children, which is affordable, they – lowering cost of living, generally, ensuring that food is, basically, available and reasonable, the cost of energy, which is – affect the middleclass. Those are the things that we intend to address, making sure that the transport system is working in urban environment and also, basically, urban transport is working properly. I’ve mentioned the cost of energy and so on.

So, those are issues that we are, and our colleagues, are addressing in our manifesto, comprehensively, which will ensure that the middleclass grows. We want to grow the middleclass. What we have said is that you don’t deprive those who have in order to empower the poor and, like, the emphasis has been made, you know, they call the bottoms up approach. We are saying that we create a conducive environment for upward social mobility to allow as many people are upcoming to rise up and join the middleclass and with the upper classes. This is what we’re intending to do.

Youth innovation, yes, our youth are very vibrant and very creative, indeed. We just mentioned the example of the M-PESA. We are the ones who invented the mobile money, which we have given to the world. Unfortunately, the inventor himself did not really benefit from the product of his work. We’ve said that we need to be able to protect intellectual property of the youth. They make inventions, they are protected, so that they can be able to benefit from what comes out of their work. That itself will create a lot of incentives to promote the youth to be more creative in inventions in our country, okay? This is, I mean, intellectual property.

I feel with sir Wekesa, I’ve said yes that we will continue the positive work that have been done by the government, President Uhuru Kenyatta. I’ve never said that we are going to inherit the negative things. There are certain negative things that Uhuru himself has actually admitted. He said that, for example, “The government loses close to two billion shillings daily into corruption” and he is, of course, felt very much unable to deal with it. The reason is because he’s got a divided government. He’s being undermined from within his own government by his deputy, who’s, basically, in a position inside the government and, therefore, you know, any fight against corruption is politicised. If anybody is investigated by investigative authorities and is arrested or charged, it’s always will cry that, “Oh, so and so is being targeted because he’s my supporter,” and so, “He’s being targeted because he’s my supporter.” So, he – they cannot really fight against this corruption internally because of internal contradictions within the Jubilee Government itself.

I do not have that kind of baggage, myself. I am going in there with clean hands and people know me. Remember when I was the Prime Minister at the time when I actually suspended two Ministers because of investigations, which have been carried out and pointed to those Ministers. Unfortunately, because of, at that time, the internal divisions, the government, it was saved by my partner that time.

But you say that nobody will be indispensable in the government and if you want to really carry out a successful war against corruption, then you just begin yourself. If any member of your family is caught in this, you must ensure that action is taken against him. I give an example of Kagame, whose own brother was arrested and imprisoned and would go to visit his brother in prison and he had to tell him, “Sorry, but this is where you belong.” You know, if you take those kind of actions, then people will begin to know that it is not business as usual. It must be business as usual to dealing with this hydra-headed animal called ‘corruption’ and there will be a determination to do it.

But it is not only in the field of public servants and so on. In the whole criminal justice system, investigating authorities themselves sometimes need to be investigated. Prosecutor authorities who refuse to prosecute once evidence has been compiled by those who are investigating, then you find that the arrest rate of criminal investig – I mean, the – of – for prosecution refuse to actually prosecute, take them to court. If that is the end of it, just end the judiciary. People will be charged, once they’re taken to court, you want a battle. You have all these Lawyers baying in the court, “Oh, these people are, basically, innocent, innocent until proved guilty through due process,” and they make it impossible, even for the judiciary to work. Those are corrupt judiciary. With – they give bail or warrant and then the cases are never listed for hearing, years on and cases which were taken to court at the beginning of the level of this regime, in 2018, have not been heard up to today. So, jud – corrupt judiciary is also responsible for what we’re doing. So, it’s not only the members of the public, generally, and – but we will ensure that we do a cleaning exercise for the Police officials, through the prosecution authorities and to the judiciary, to ensure that our system works properly in the interests of our people. Thank you.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Okay. So, we’ll go over here [applause]. Is it you, Fergus? Yeah, this – yeah, so, yeah, Mark, go ahead. Yeah, please introduce yourself. Some people won’t know who you are.

Mark Malloch-Brown

I’m Mark Malloch-Brown, Former African Minister and President of the Open Society Foundations. Hon. Raila, it probably won’t surprise you that I’m going to ask about how you ensure there is an honest election? Having been with you, as Africa Minister in 2008, when we feel you were cheated of the right outcome, having seen the dismal conduct of the last election, in terms of the vote count, how will you ensure – when you’re running against a well-funded, ruthless partner, how will you make sure that the honest election takes place, which allows the candidate with the most votes to win?

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Thank you very much.

Rt Hon Raila Odinga EGH

Yes, do you want to explain it? I’m not sure that’s…

Dr Alex Vines OBE

How will you make – ensure that the – that you will win in a fair way, given the complexities of Kenyan politics?

Mark Malloch-Brown

The manpower.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Yeah.

Rt Hon Raila Odinga EGH

Do you want me to comment here?

Dr Alex Vines OBE

I – we’ve had so many questions on this particular issue. The – both my WhatsApp and the computer’s full of them. There is another question tied to this, also, Hon. Raila, which came up last time, last week with Mr Ruto, who said he would accept an election result. So, the question to you is, will you accept an election result in Kenya? Let’s go here, this gentleman right at the front.

Dr Moses K. Langat

Yeah, and – right, I am Moses Langat, I work at Kew Gardens and also teach at the University of Surrey, in Guildford.

Rt Hon Raila Odinga EGH

Sorry, you…

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Can you just speak up a bit, please, yeah?

Dr Moses K. Langat

Yeah, I say my name’s Moses Langat and I work at Kew Gardens and also teach at the University of Surrey, in Guildford. My question is around the handshake. The Rt. Hon. Prime Minister has said that he dialogued with the President and they shook hands. We know what happened in Kenya that meant that the opposition collapsed, members of the Parliament from the opposition took positions in the ruling government. Literally, we ended up with another Government of National Unity. So, my question to the Prime Minister is, are we expecting another handshake in 2023? Will there be a third Government of National Unity? And by extension, what are we – what are you teaching, or what is Kenya teaching opposition leaders in Africa? Thank you.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Okay, and the final one is the lady there. Please go ahead. It’s been gentlemen up to now, so absolutely your turn.

Karen Njuguna

Thank you. My name is Karen Njuguna. I am a Midwife here in the UK. I trained and practised here. My question is around maternal health. So, you talked about constitution reform, and I’m interested to know what your government has – or plans are, in terms of reducing maternal mortality? As you know, maternal mortality – reducing maternal mortality is a global agenda and we commend Beyond Zero for the work that they’ve done in almost bringing to the front of the plight of the African woman through childbirth. So – and we know that, at the moment, in Kenya, unsafe abortion contributes to 35% of maternal mortality. So, I’m interested to find out how you will build on the work that has been done by Beyond Zero, but in particular, do you have any reforms, in terms of moving – having policies looking at the policies around abortion? They are very much pro-life – pro-choi – pro-life at the moment, but I think that we cannot address maternal mortality in Kenya, without addressing unsafe abortions and the complications that come from that.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

There you go, plenty of questions.

Rt Hon Raila Odinga EGH

Yes [pause], onto my friend of the – so, Brown, how do you – how do I ensure the win? You know, so, me and him have been agonised, particularly in 2007, when what was not expected to happen happened. It has been a long road, as you know. Following the 2007 botched elections, of course, Kenyans paid a very heavy price, in terms of loss of life that resulted, and we had say that “Never again will that happen.” Unfortunately, the subsequent experiences have not been very much different.

We set up a team at that time, the Kreigler Commission, to investigate what happened and they came up and said that “One of the reasons was the manual transmission of results, which enabled people to interfere with the outcome,” and recommended that “Kenyans should go electronic.” Unfortunately, the results with this have not been very, very pleasant. Remember what happened in 2013 and we’d contested the outcome at that time. We went to the Supreme Court and, like in 2007, when we did not have confidence in the Supreme Court. At this time, we went, but then we, of course, we did not get evidence in time. At the time, we were able to compile our evidence, they said that we were ‘time bad’ and, therefore, our evidence was dismissed. And then, the Supreme Court went on to say we lost the elections and we said we did not agree with this Supreme Court ruling, but we, generally, accepted, because we respected the Supreme Court and urge our supporters not to involve in any kind of violence or demonstrations.

So, we then resigned ourselves to a role as an opposition and waited for the next time and then, the next time came in 2017. Again, we had a similar experience, and we went back again to the Supreme Court. This time the Supreme Court agreed with us and nullified the Presidential elections. Unfortunately, the Electoral Commission was not able to guarantee that this subs – the repeat elections were going to be different from the other ones. That’s why we boycotted the repeat elections that time. We are hoping that this will not happen this time round, but we are, of course, monitoring the Electoral Commission and we have actually pointed out which areas we were concerned that we want them to address to ensure that the process is free and fair. And we have actually said that if it’s free and fair and we win or we lose fairly, we will accept the result either way, so long as it’s been fair.

Then Moses, Moses is talking about that the handshake, basically, could destroy the opposition. We want it to be understood properly that the handshake came as a result of the crisis that was in the country at that time. We – then the Supreme Court had nullified the elections. We had demanded that the lev – the playing field be levelled before we participated. That was not done. In the end, of course, we called for a boycott of the repeat and the turnout was very, very low, but then, they went onto now swear the President on its own, which angered our people. We called for a boycott on certain products in the country.

We also called for positive action, that’s demonstrations, peaceful demonstrations, which were taking place on a weekly basis. This, of course, was causing clashes between our supporters and the Police and a lot of lives were being lost. There was a time when we went to a place called Ligi Ndogo and with 38 coffins of victims of bullets shot by the Police. Another time we went to the mortuary and we got 28 – 27 corpses, again, victims of the Police brutality. Quite a number of our people were in hospitals, in different hospitals in the country, with bullet wounds. So, it was causing a lot of losses of lives, pain and, also, the economy, because the demonstrations were, basically, disrupting the business.

Now, some of our people have said “We, basically, declare our sovereignty and run our affairs.” In the midst of this, of course, our people have had access the act – real result of the elections, we did the swearing in and, so, now, you had a President, the people’s President. And our people said, “Let us now take all the portraits of President Kenyatta in all the public buildings in our strongholds, keep them somewhere and torch them and declare our sovereignty and begin to collect taxes and run our affairs.”

On the other hand, the supporters to Mr Kenyatta went and told him, “What Mr Odinga has done is treason, please arrest him, charge him with treason, take him to a committee and hang him, so that this can’t bug the country.” Both ways Mr Kenyatta refused and I also refused. It’s under those circumstances that we agreed to meet and to dialogue and it took a very long time until we, basically, agreed that Kenya was bigger and more important than both of us and we agreed that we would work together to ensure that never again will Kenyans go to the ballots and we end up with violence, like has been the case before, and that we’ll ensure that the elections are free and fair and we agreed to shake hands and came up with a memorandum of understanding that was aimed at creating the neighbouring environment. That is what eventually resulted in what was called the Building Bridges Initiative in our country.

So, opposition did not collapse, to answer you. We did not go into government, unlike the propaganda being spread by our distractors. We remained very much in opposition. Our party in Parliament was doing what it’s done in this country, which you call homogenous law on opposition, where you do not just oppose for the sake of opposing. You propose and also offer a constructive alternative as to what you’re opposing. This is what has been happening in Kenya.

There have been fallacious theories that, “Oh, you’ve got opposition in government and government in opposition.” Nothing could be further from the truth, because the so-called government in opposition is living in officialdom. The repeated President, when he came to this country and the United States, he spent over one million Canad – US $1 million in taxpayers’ money to bring that entourage out here. He’s travelling with the government security, everything is done for him officially. I have to pay my airfare to come here and with all the people who you see have come here, none of them has been paid for by the government, unlike him. He’s travelled with the official government – with official government security and so on and so forth. So, it cannot be an opposition – a government in opposition. I don’t know whether our – if that kind of term exists anywhere.

Then, finally, Caroline, yes, maternal mortality. This is an issue of serious concern to us. Accompanied here by Madam Charity Ngilu, who has been a Minister for Health and came up with a policy to address issue – the iss – this particular issue and other issues of health concerns that we have said that we are going to improve healthcare, generally, in the country, by ensuring that the facilities are available closer to the people and that they are, well, up to real international standards, so that you have got the facilities which are manned by qualified staff and the equipment and everything else is available in those centres. So, this will help to minimise maternal mortality in the country. The antenatal care and so, all this will be provided for through this kind of scheme.

And you talked about the safe abortion. As you know, that this is a very contentious issue during the debate about the new constitution. But our constitution has provided that in cases where the life of the mother is threatened, then the Doctors are – carry – entitled and allowed to terminate the pregnancy and just like general maternal mortality rate, this will be done as – in the centres that we are intending to provide, who are closer to the people, so that we can save life and minimise death through pregnancy, but thank you.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

So, I’m now going to go for some of our virtual audience and then, we’ll have one more round from you here, in the hall, and then, we’ll finish, I think, the way the clock is going. So, the first question is one, Hon. Raila, I’m going to read out, which is from Dr Saleh, and he said that he assumes “policy change includes foreign policy,” and he’s asking, “could you please comment in your stance towards democratisation and good governance in Africa, in light of coups in Sudan, Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea and what do you think is the role that the African Union and EGAT should play?” He also asks, “What’s your vision for the East Africa Federation?” which is a question that was asked to Mr Ruto last week, also. So, that’s one question.

A second question is from Madalena. I think we’re going to be able to allow her to ask the question live. She’s in Rome. Is that correct, Fergus, are we going to have Madalena?

Madalena Precopio

Yeah, can you hear me?

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Yeah, Madalena, great.

Madalena Precopio

Yeah, hi there.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Please introduce yourself, ask your question. Thank you very much.

Madalena Precopio

Yeah, thank you very much, thank you all. I’m Madalena Precopio. I work for Eni Energy company; I’m based in Rome. Hon. Raila, you mentioned the importance of – for Africa of accepting borders, and I was wondering how do you see the maritime dispute or the dispute with Somalia to playout? The International Court of Justice ruled mostly in favour of Somalia, but Kenya did not really accept the ruling. What next? Thank you.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Thank you, Madalena. At this stage, I want to just introduce you all to our Common Futures Conversations. So, our next questions will be from two young members of Chatham House’s Common Futures Conversations project. For your own information, Hon. Raila, the Common Futures Conversations project is a centenary initiative of Chatham House, using a bespoke online platform to provide space for young people in Africa and Europe to share perspectives on key global issues and engage with policymakers.

We’ve received a large number of questions on a range of issues for today and in the interests of time, we’ve selected two who will pose the questions directly to you via Zoom. But with your permission, I just want to read out one of the questions, ‘cause I think there’s some technical difficulty, and we’ll invite the second to ask the question live. So, the first question is Brian Audi and his question, Brian’s question, is “Kenya is one of the countries that has been greatly affected by climate change. We can see the effects of frequent droughts and floods all over the country. What are your plans to fight climate change in the runup to COP27 and beyond?” So, that’s one question, and then, the second question is from Mikhail Nyamyeg – Nwamweya. So, Mikhail, we’re going to ask you to ask your question live. So, Mikhail, please ask your question.

Mikhail Nyamweya

Thank you very much for this opportunity. My name is Mikhail Nyamweya and I’m a Foreign Policy Analyst and a CFC member based in Nairobi. Now, my question directed at Rt. Hon. Raila Odinga relates to foreign policy and it is said that foreign policy is an extension of domestic policy. Now, we see that foreign policy under His Excellency the President Uhuru Kenyatta, has been sent to be assertive and pragmatic during his tenure as President. Now, in the previous event held by Chatham House, his Excellency, the Deputy President William Ruto, actually pointed out on galvanising peace amongst Kenya’s neighbours, especially Somalia, Ethiopia and South Sudan. This may now hint at the fact that he may have a more, you know, regional outlook.

Now, in this case, knowing very well that foreign policy changes its changing Heads of State due to personality, what is your foreign policy agenda? Will you sustain the assertiveness displayed by Kenya’s foreign policy over the last eight years in your capacity as the individual actor in foreign policy, that is, or is the same likely to undergo a sharp reversal? Thank you.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Thank you, Mikhail. So, two foreign policy questions, basically, and one on climate change, also.

Rt Hon Raila Odinga EGH

Mr Saleh talked about African democratisation process.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

That’s correct.

Rt Hon Raila Odinga EGH

We have – ourselves, have been involved in this democratisation process on the continent. As I said at another forum earlier today, that “I’m a pan-Africanist and an Afro-optimist and I say this as opposed to Afro-pessimist.” Afro-optimists are those who believe in the ability of African people to solve African problems. Afro-pessimists are those who have given up on the continent, that Africa is a lost case, does not even need to try.

Now, the African democratisation process has been – as old as Africa’s been independent. There have always been two forces in pulling in two opposite directions, in the 60s and in the 70s. Of course, following the African independence, the two schools of thought are recent. Those who were talking of an pan-African too and African Unity, who were led by, then, Kwame Nkrumah, and those who say that “Africa can only grow – develop if it was united,” they’re talking about United State of Africa. And those who said, “No, you need to go gradual about it. You gradually start to talk about regional co-operation, regional integration, before you come to an African Government. That is how the AU – OAU at that time was divided. In the end, those gradually succeeded and later on, it you read what Mwalimu Nyeyere said to – just before his death, he said, “Nkrumah was right and they were wrong.” Because once the people had the flag and that now expected to consolidate power, the urge for unity disappeared and it will become more and more difficult to reunite that time.

Now, during the Cold War, of course, the West was very happy to protect African dictatorships. The issues of internal governance was not of priority, at all. So long as you say that you are an ally of the West, you are against communism, nobody cared how you ran your affairs in your own country. That’s how we created the dictatorships like Mobutu Sese Seko, Kamuzu Banda in Malawi, Jean Bokassa, del Bokassa of Central African Republic and so on. Military coups then became order of the day in the continent. It was not only after the fall of the Berlin Wall that the wind of change began, that started in Eastern Europe, also found its way into the African Continent and that’s what brought down the military regimes and the single party dictatorships on the continent. Multipartyism then emerged on the Continent of Africa. Now, the West began to apply new criteria, new [inaudible – 64:57] were invented, transparency, accountability and good governance in the internal affairs.

So, multipartyism came and military regimes went away, then time limits were also introduced in the new constitutional structure are being committed on the continent. And this has seen a marked growth on the continent, whereas before these, most African economies were, basically, dependent on age, which continued to impoverish the continent. This new governance changed things and we see – we began to see positive rates of growth of the continent. Unfortunately, we are seeing some kind of reversals of the gains that have been made in the continent.

In the last few months or years of seeing the emergence of the military men on the continent. Just last year alone saw a coup in Mali, in Guinea, in Chad, in Bukina Faso. Now, because it’s a concern to pan-Africanists, like ourselves, it’s universal, now, what will be the cause of this? Maybe those who have taken over who have been in charge have not been governing very well. Some of them we’ve seen revising the constitutions to do away with the time limits, which had been featured in the days of the reforms. So, we need to do an introspection as to the causes of this reversion that we are seeing on the continent, and we hope that it is reversible.

About my position that, firstly, believe in East Africa – East African community, as founded by the Founding Fathers, who are independent. But they actually envisioned a – not just a community, but a federation. Mwalimu Nyeyere, Mzee Kenyatta, Jaramogi and Obote are talking of East Afghan Federation. I will want us to work towards creating a federation where we can remove the borders, so that there can be free flow of people and goods across our borders. This will make the community a very vibrant economy on the African Continent, because now the DRC has joined. We are talking about over 300 million people population, with a lot of resources. So, that is what I would say about the community.

Madalena, Kenya-Somali border, yeah, this is a contentious issue. Kenya and Somali, you know, are neighbours and we enjoyed good neighbourly relationship until the turmoil in Somalia started. We have not had a stable regime in Somalia over 30 years today and this is really the cause of the crisis we were having, because we cannot really negotiate equitably the regime that does not even have a proper legitimacy. That issue of the border between Kenya and Somalia does not need to be contentious. It is an issue and does not even need to go to International Courts of Justice. It can be dealt with within the context of either East Africa or the African Union. An amicable solution can actually be found to that problem. So, I intend to pursue that option and find a peaceful solution to that dispute between us and Somalia.

The climate change, yes, this is a big challenge, not just to Kenya, but to – not only to Africa, but globally. Africa, of course, is more of a victim than the offender in this regard, ‘cause our emissions are very negligible compared to the bigger offenders in Europe and in Asia. But we have a role to play ourselves and we are playing this role very effectively. We’ve seen, for example, our policy on plastic waste, the issue of conservation of environment, in terms of our water towers, forestation measures that we are taking, going green, in terms of our energy, a generation. ‘Cause, like, now, we are really trying to grow the geothermal, solar and wind, so we are almost nearly 80% there in this regard. So, we will do everything possible to ensure that we are not in the league of offenders.

Michael, our foreign policy, first, is to create a very friendly relationship with, first, our neighbours and co-operation within the East African community, then, to also play a role in the African Union. At the moment, as you know, I am the African Union High Representative on Infrastructure Development. That has given me the opportunity to movement across the continents and establish contact with leadership around entire Continent of Africa. We want to get a friendly relationship among the African countries. We, of course, will not be neutral when it comes to aggression and violation of our national integrity or sovereignty. Like, as you know, Kenya has been very firm at the UN Security Council on the issue of Ukraine. The invasion by Russia on Ukraine stand condemned by Kenya and most of the peaceful international community. That is where we are, so we will not be mentioning words on issues where violation of fundamental human rights are concerned, irrespective of it is happening. We will be – we’ll take – we will be taking a very firm stand, generally. I think I’m done, thank you.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Yeah, you are. So, what I’m going to do is just two questions, ‘cause we’re on time. We haven’t had anyone from this side of the room, so gentleman there, yeah, you sir, and this extreme side of the room here. There’s not many of you sitting, but do any of you want to ask a question? This is your chance.

Fergus

Did you…?

Dr Alex Vines OBE

No?

Fergus

You can have – nothing?

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Patrick Smith, you don’t want to ask anything? But anyway, please go here first.

Sean Curtin

Sean Curtin, Chatham House member. What is your attitude towards Kenya’s debt to China, which is quite considerable? You have mentioned Pan-Africanism a lot and that Chinese debt is definitely a Pan-Africanism problem, thank you.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

And what was your name, sorry? Hon Raila…

Sean Curtin

It was Sean Curtin.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Sean, okay. No questions there, doesn’t matter, then. The gentleman right here in the front is the last question, yeah.

Fergus

Great, the mics coming now.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

We – it’s coming, the microphone’s coming.

Abdul Mohamed

Okay.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Just one question, please.

Abdul Mohamed

Yeah, my name is Abdul Mohamed. I’m a local London Politician, British Politician, and I’m a member of the diaspora. What I wanted to ask was that last year the diaspora remitted something like about $3.7 billion to Kenya and is performing a substantial part of the economy of Kenya.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Yeah.

Abdul Mohamed

And the diaspora hasn’t felt very inclusive – included in the programmes that the government is running and as a dia – as a member of the diaspora, I feel that the diaspora members would want the Kenyan Government to be more involved in the diaspora to encourage us, ‘cause we have got not only the money, but also the talent, and I wanted to find out what ideas you’ve got in getting that talent much more involved in the battle against poverty and upraising the standings of living in our country – in the country.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Right, so those are two questions. I have one for you myself, but I’ll ask it right at the end. Please, Hon. Raila, if you answer those two questions.

Rt Hon Raila Odinga EGH

[Pause] First, Sean, about the Chinese debt, actually, I got you right. This is a question that’s always asked about China and China’s intentions, and I say that it’s certainly not China. It is to those who are negotiating with China, because for a long time, it was very difficult for African countries to undertake certain major infrastructural development ‘cause of lack of capital and when – at that time they were all just dependent on the West, particularly Bretton Woods Institutions, Royal Bank, the IMF and bilateral donors at that time. Most of African countries were not able to undertake major infrastructure development, like highways, ports, airports, irrigation schemes and so on.

So, China came into actually fill a vacuum that was there and, obviously, of course, China is not doing it out of charity. China is also interested in Africa’s raw materials, generally. So, they came to filled this vacuum and now, actually, it depends on how the country negotiates, because they’re not applying a blanket solution, all times, across the continent. It depends on how you negotiate with the Chinese. If you don’t have strong negotiators, they will, of course, impose their terms on you if you are desperate. Beggars cannot be choosers, as they say. So, in my view is that African count – Government must actually negotiate favourable terms with the Chinese and if you’re uncomfortable with some of the terms, you renegotiate, put it back a bit on the table and renegotiate or find somebody else who can – able to buyout the Chinese, in review. So, I don’t think that China is the elephant in the room here. I think this is wrongly put there, where they don’t belong.

Abdul Hamed, there’s the diaspora. Agree very strongly that diaspora is making a very strong contribution to Kenya’s economy through remittances back home, which helps our foreign exchange reserves. I have been very much involved in trying to respond to the requests of the diaspora. I remember when we started, we – the diaspora was talking about dual citizenship, which was not allowed. They pushed it against a lot of opposition and got it into the constitution that you can have your British citizenship here, but you can still also retain Kenyan citizenship. That, I think, was a major achievement. And we are also now trying to see that diaspora can invest in the country and that their investment will be protected, you know.

Like, we’re talking right now, for example, about a massive housing development and we want to create a situation where the diaspora can invest in housing while they stay wherever they’re staying. And we actually intend to now set up a desk in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that is just going to be dealing with diaspora matters, so that if – the issues or concerned can be addressed effectively and fast enough for the diaspora. And if they want to invest in the country, also, they are given proper information as where the opportunities are, or where they can invest in, back in the country. We want to enable Kenyans to just do like what they do in Israel. You see the Israeli-Americans, or whether they are in here in this country, they are – can invest in Israel at very favourable terms. I see no reason why we cannot do that with our own diaspora back at home, because it is the investment that we require. It does not hurt. Anything else, it helps our economy, therefore, we will do it. Thank you.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Thank you very much, Hon. Raila [applause]. I had just one final question. You have an important meeting this evening. You’re going to the Emirates Stadium to watch Liverpool play Arsenal, or Arsenal-Liverpool. What’s going to be the score?

Fergus

Arsenal are going to defend.

Rt Hon Raila Odinga EGH

This is the last question, of course.

Dr Alex Vines OBE

It is.

Rt Hon Raila Odinga EGH

As you know, I started, first, as a Man U fan…

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Ah.

Rt Hon Raila Odinga EGH

…in…

Fergus

Oh.

Rt Hon Raila Odinga EGH

Yeah.

Fergus

Between you and me…

Rt Hon Raila Odinga EGH

But…

Fergus

Oh no.

Rt Hon Raila Odinga EGH

…I need to explain. And do you know that until the time when the Man U fans had a problem, remember because of violence, that they were banned by FIFA and Man U was playing in the empty stadia for one year, is when I migrated briefly to Liverpool and then, eventually, found my way to Arsenal [applause]. So…

Fergus

Very good.

Rt Hon Raila Odinga EGH

…I mean, that’s the only thing personally. That’s the only thing a civilian. So – and we are the only ones who produce the invincibles. So, tonight, we have the Liverpool against Arsenal. I know that Liverpool are really trailing very close to the leader, the Man City, but tonight I’m predicting at least two goals for Arsenal.

Fergus

Okay.

Rt Hon Raila Odinga EGH

And I don’t know…

Female Delegate

Hooray.

Rt Hon Raila Odinga EGH

…how many for Liverpool goals [applause].

Dr Alex Vines OBE

You heard the prediction first at Chatham House [applause]. Thank you very much [applause]. Thank you.

Rt Hon Raila Odinga EGH

Thank you again [applause].

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Thank you, everybody, and good evening. The next meeting we have here that might be of interest to you is Secretary-General of the African Free Continental Trade Area and that will be on the 30th of this month. Information will be sent out shortly. Thank you very much.