Conflict Prevention and Prediction

This work convenes experts and policymakers to create cross-sector dialogues on the most pressing challenges in conflict prediction and prevention with the aim of building a better understanding of effective interventions in preventing violent conflict.

Image — Indian army soldiers patrol as they keep vigil ahead of Republic Day celebrations at a forward post on the Line of Control (LoC) in Keran Kupwara, Jammu and Kashmir, India, on 23 January 2025. Photo credit: Copyright © Nasir Kachroo/NurPhoto/Getty Images.

The International Security Programme’s efforts in conflict prediction and prevention are driven by two key initiatives.

The first is a partnership with the UCL Policy Lab to establish the Innovation Network in Conflict Prediction. This cross-sector collaboration fosters dialogue between policymakers, academics and practitioners to enhance public policy on conflict prevention and mitigation. It also seeks to provide innovative methodologies and tools for assessing conflict risks, empowering policymakers with new resources to anticipate and address potential crises.

The second initiative is designed to strengthen the UK’s toolkit for conflict prevention in the face of evolving global risks. This project aims to deepen the understanding of effective strategies for preventing violent conflict, equipping UK policymakers and practitioners with evidence-based insights on the most effective tools, mechanisms and approaches to avert future conflicts.

Key objectives

  1. Form a network of key experts for regular knowledge exchange and production of research.
  2. Spread the understanding that conflict prevention measures can be evaluated and made effective for specific situations and therefore could become a cost-effective tool.
  3. Develop a set of effective interventions and tools with proven effectiveness for preventing violent conflict or violence escalation. 

Key activities

  • Organizing a series of roundtables and scenario exercises with experts and policymakers.
  • Desk research and stakeholder interviews, including briefings with relevant policymakers.
  • Publication of meeting summaries and research papers to disseminate the findings from the projects. 

Partners and funders

FCDO, UCL Policy Lab, UCL Innovation and Enterprise.

Project output

Event summary: How can we get better at knowing where the next war will break out?
Event summary: How can big data and AI prevent violent conflict?
Event summary: How can the conflict prevention community respond to disappearing data and funding cuts?