With governments around the world seeking to reduce their foreign aid budgets, and at a time of increasing global crises, those involved in conflict prevention face having to do more with less. A lack of resources will necessitate strict strategic decisions about which interventions to prioritize.
This research paper analyses real world case studies from Europe, Asia and Africa to assess the relative advantages of the most common conflict prevention interventions to help policymakers navigate this new global context. It also identifies three major trends shaping contemporary and future conflicts – the impact of climate change, the ‘geopoliticization’ of conflict and the proliferation of technological advancements – and examines how their likely impact on both the causes of instability and the effectiveness of conflict prevention.
Summary
- While the number and intensity of conflicts worldwide continues to rise, funding for conflict prevention is becoming increasingly scarce. Major donors, including the US and the UK have significantly reduced their contributions to overseas development, likely leading to setbacks in humanitarian and peacebuilding efforts. These cuts have already had a negative effect on capacity for conflict prevention globally, and will likely reduce the world’s ability to respond to emerging conflicts before they escalate.
- In the context of dwindling resources, governments will have to make strategic decisions about which interventions to prioritize, balancing immediate stabilization of conflict zones and long-term conflict prevention efforts.
- This research paper identifies three major trends shaping contemporary and future conflicts – the impact of climate change, the ‘geopoliticization’ of conflict and the proliferation of technological advancements. Each of these trends interacts with existing conflict dynamics, influencing both the causes of instability and the effectiveness of conflict prevention interventions
- The paper evaluates six widely applied conflict prevention interventions – mediation, border management, resource management, multistakeholder processes, governance and institutional reforms and information and communication technologies – and attempts to assess how effective these interventions have been to date, and how the rapidly changing global context will affect their use in future conflicts, citing case studies from Georgia, India–Pakistan and Kenya.
- Mediation remains a cornerstone of conflict resolution, but its effectiveness is increasingly challenged by the reduction in legitimacy among traditional mediators such as the US. However, standards for formal mediation have provided training opportunities for new mediators.
- Border management is one of the most important interventions, given that border disputes are the biggest cause of conflict worldwide. However, especially during active conflict, states are more likely to harden borders than to engage in positive community-building efforts. Conflict prevention under pressure How effective are the most common interventions, and are they fit for future conflicts?
- Resource management and economic cooperation can reduce tensions but, to remain effective, require active monitoring and renegotiation in line with changing resource requirements and relationships. Climate change and economic pressures will likely increase the importance of resource management-related interventions.
- Multi-stakeholder processes are crucial to building lasting peace in a conflict situation, as they involve bringing together all affected parties, including minoritized groups. However, these processes can take a long time to bear fruit and do not lend themselves to short-term interventions or evaluation.
- Governance and institutional reforms are critical but face structural challenges, as they can be hindered by corruption or be perceived as a threat to a state sovereignty if seen to be imposed from the outside.
- Technological advancements present both opportunities and risks for conflict prevention. On the one hand, certain types of technologies can help build confidence and increase transparency by expanding access and allowing independent verification of peace agreements, for example. But on the other hand, the falling cost of technology has made it easier for less-wealthy parties to a conflict to access advanced weapons systems, which can prolong the fighting and disincentivize attempts at resolution. In addition, risks are exacerbated by the business models of major technology companies, which prioritize engagementdriven algorithms that amplify divisive and provocative content. Platforms profit from maximizing user attention, which has created structural incentives that can fuel polarization and make ICTs potential active amplifiers of instability in conflict situations.
ISBN: 978 1 78413 645 1 / DOI: 10.55317/9781784136451