|
|
|
|
|
---|
Wood pellets burnt/required (Mt)
|
26
|
7
|
31
|
926
|
Embodied CO₂ (MtCO₂)
|
47
|
13
|
57
|
1667
|
CO₂ capture potential (90% capture rate) (MtCO₂)
|
42
|
12
|
|
|
CO₂ capture target (90% capture rate) (MtCO₂)
|
|
|
51
|
1500
|
*Net zero, further ambition scenario; **‘middle-of-the-road’ IPCC 1.5°C compliant pathway.
Source: Compiled by the author.
The initial combustion of biomass, along with the associated life cycle emissions of the biomass feedstock, create what is termed a ‘carbon debt’. Over time, regrowth of the harvested forest removes this carbon from the atmosphere, reducing the carbon debt. The period until carbon parity is achieved is usually termed the ‘carbon payback period’.
Calculating carbon payback periods is complex, because they depend not only on the type of feedstock used, but on the counterfactual – what would have happened to the feedstock if it had not been used for energy. The shortest carbon payback periods derive from the use of residues and wastes from forest industries that imply no additional harvesting and would otherwise be burnt as waste or left to decay, releasing carbon to the atmosphere in any case. The longest carbon payback periods derive from increasing harvest volumes in managed forests, harvesting natural forests or converting them into plantations, or displacing wood from other uses. Where whole trees are harvested and used for energy, not only is the stored carbon in the tree released into the atmosphere immediately, but the future carbon sequestration capacity of the tree is lost, and it takes time for the residual trees or new trees to compensate. Plantation forests have higher growth rates than natural forests and are typically harvested at a relatively young age, while naturally regenerated forests tend to be older and have larger trees when harvested; therefore, more stored carbon is lost when natural forests are harvested.
On the other hand, in the absence of forest management, the rate of net carbon absorption by most forests falls as the incidence of dead and diseased trees increases, and over time the forest may also become more vulnerable to wildfire or other disturbances. There can, therefore, be benefits over the long term from some level of management, and in the absence of demand for wood for energy or other products, many forests may not be managed in a manner that can increase forest carbon stocks. However, this assumes that forest management for conservation is not subsidized in the way that biomass for energy currently is.
It is often claimed that using thinnings of trees from forest management practices – which account for about 30 per cent of Drax’s feedstock – results in shorter carbon payback periods because they promote tree growth and allow higher stocking of trees. It should, however, be noted that the evidence on thinning practices indicates forest carbon stocks are either redistributed (to the remaining trees), or decline.
While using wastes and residues as feedstock minimizes the carbon payback period, the volumes available are limited. Thus, as BECCS is developed at scale, there is a risk of using feedstocks with longer and longer carbon payback periods. Particular attention needs to be paid to the carbon payback period if roundwood from mature trees enters the supply chain. This is principally because mature trees take many years to grow, and support greater soil carbon, meaning any next generation tree replacement (plantation saplings) would be subject to a significant carbon payback period. The carbon payback period of a mature tree is likely to be at the upper end of the range of 44–104 years (calculated for a clearcut forest), but could be longer, meaning geologically stored CO₂ from mature trees should not be considered carbon negative until the next generation of trees has grown for this period of time.
Figure 6 illustrates the risks of carbon debt, as wood pellet supply is scaled to service the future global demand from BECCS. It should be noted that the diagram is not applicable to a supply chain of wood pellets derived from plantations grown on marginal or degraded land. As can be seen, the energy requirement to dry high-moisture-content woody biomass, and conversion of mature forests to plantations represent the major potential supply chain emissions. The sustainability criteria in place currently in the UK and EU do not place limits on feedstocks by category, though in July 2021 the European Commission published proposals for modifications to the EU’s sustainability criteria, which would end incentives for using saw or veneer logs, stumps and roots, and also prohibit sourcing from primary forests. Transparent monitoring and enforcement of sustainability criteria is often challenging. This is illustrated by investigating the sourcing of wood pellets from the US southeast.
As noted above, Drax complies with the UK’s sustainability criteria for solid biomass. The company’s 2020 annual report indicates that 36 per cent of its wood pellets are derived from low-grade roundwood. While this may be parts of trees not utilized for wood products, there is a risk that it can contain whole trees, even mature trees. Of the total supply, 63 per cent is sourced from the US southeast, of which 38 per cent is low-grade roundwood. Although Drax diligently reports the categories of feedstock sources used within its own mills, only 20 per cent is currently sourced from pellet mills it directly owns. To ensure wood pellets sourced from suppliers are compliant with regulations, supply chain emissions are minimized and forests sustainably managed, Drax requires suppliers to be certified under the Sustainable Biomass Program (SBP). However, concerns surround potential flaws in SBP standards, with critics concerned SBP certification leaves open loopholes that could undermine the sustainability of wood pellets.
Reporting by saw and pellet mills in the US as to their forest extraction practices is not mandatory. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) programme utilizes sampling techniques to estimate the timber product output (TPO). The TPO data provides a means to estimate the feedstock sources used in the mills, as well as the health of forest and carbon stocks. At the forest level, rather than the mill level, the vast areas of the forests and large number of plots necessitates the sampling approach adopted by the FIA. In the state of Mississippi, in 2019, there were nearly 4,000 plots that were forested, with around 10–20 per cent of those plots visited and measured by field crews each year.
Utilizing the FIA data, a 2020 study investigated the impacts of recent wood pellet production expansion in the US. While the study found ‘largely positive trends in timberland conditions… potentially negative trends suggests that continued monitoring of localized impacts of wood pellet mill operations is important’. When looking at the specifics of pellet mill procurement areas in close proximity (within 122 km) to exporting ports in the US coastal southeast, the study found around 400 million fewer live trees compared to other eastern US procurement areas, equivalent to 554 fewer live trees per hectare. And importantly the study states that, ‘in the US coastal southeast there were fewer live and growing-stock trees and less carbon in soils with every year of milling operation than in the rest of the eastern US’. It should be noted that this is only one study. However, very few studies have recently investigated the specifics of wood pellet demand pressures on forest management and sourcing practices in this region. Given wood pellet sourcing in the US southeast has rapidly expanded in recent years, and the potential drawbacks of mill reporting and SBP certification, this study is an early indicator of the risks that increased demand pressure can place on supply chains. If these trends continue the risks of carbon debt associated with wood pellets could correspondingly increase. Considering the 44–104-year carbon payback periods, and that carbon budgets to limit global warming to 2°C run till the end of the century, pressure on wood pellet supply chains should be minimized to mitigate carbon debt risks.