The Geopolitical Positioning of Europe

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Chatham House. I’m delighted that you’ve been able to join us here this evening, and I want to give a very strong welcome to the President of Slovenia, Mr Borut Pahor. A great privilege to be able to welcome you to Chatham House, I think on your first visit here, which, given the fact that, as we were discussing a minute ago, President Pahor had got into politics at the age of 29, and has been one of the leading figures in Slovenian politics through his political career, having served as Prime Minister, and now in his second term as President, having been re-elected in 2017. Also, had an opportunity to serve in the European Parliament, including on the Constitutional Convention, I believe, which is relevant, because in his remarks this evening on the geopolitical positioning of Europe, or at least, if not in your remarks, certainly in our conversation afterwards, we’ll have an opportunity to hear some of his thoughts about how Europe needs to position itself much more creatively as an institution, to face some of the big challenges of the future. And there are models out there, President Pahor, that we look forward very much to hearing from you.

This meeting, as you all know, is on the record, and we will have a chance for Q&A after the President’s remarks, but we really do want to welcome you very much to Chatham House. Slovenia has been certainly looking from the outside, one of the countries that has perhaps has most successfully adapted into that process of joining after it joined in 2004, one of the first countries to get in to become a member of the Eurozone very soon after its joining the EU, and therefore, I think brings a really unique perspective to the challenges of Europe. And having heard, as we have often, from the leaders of Western Europe, I think particularly important to hear, sir, from you today. Welcome to Chatham House. We look forward to your remarks, and engaging in conversation [applause].

HE Borut Pahor

Thank you very much, Mr Director, Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen. Let me start by saying that it is an enormous privilege and an honour for me to address you. With your permission, Mr Director, I would go through three issues that would be a leading point, at least from my side, and then, as you said, there will be enough time for a Q&A, and I’m willing to answer any question.

First of all, we should define the word ‘Europe.’ When I am referring to Europe in my speech and then answers to your questions and comments, this will mean European Union, to avoid any misunderstanding, okay? Because Europe would include, also, Russia or Turkey, or – so, Western Balkans and countries which are, at the moment, are not in the European Union. So, when I will talk about Europe, I do have, in my mind European Union, and the second – the first issue would be the future of Europe. I will later on explain why this is so important for the topic, geopolitical positioning of European Union. Then I would like to speak briefly about relations of European Union with United States, Russia and China, and then I would like to ask for your attention to my thesis that, you know, in enlargement process to Western Balkans, not to Turkey and to Ukraine, but to Western Balkans, it’s not a technical process, it’s a highly political process, and it, basically, it seems now it’s a geopolitical process, and would be of great interest of Brussels to speed the process and get those countries onboard before Russia will go there, okay?

Okay, let us start with the future of Europe. Now, I do share a view of minority of us, that I do see, in next couple of decades, not tomorrow, not in couple of years, but in couple of decades, maybe, the United States of Europe. When I am saying this, I have to underline that this is not a former position of my country that I do represent. This is my personal opinion. To make a step further, I signed a special report initiative, so-called Ljubljana Initiative. Two years ago, we have written down the initiative to call for a new constitutional process among 27 countries, and we’ve proposed a new draft constitution. Now, I think the majority of you would say that this is now, in this framework of relations between 27, between Brussels and London, in these very unpredictable circumstances, not just in European Union, but abroad, that this is very bold idea. But let me tell you one thing, it is time to come with a strong vision that would be attractive to those who do believe in United Europe, because if not, those who are now, you know, advocating the politics go back to national, you know, frameworks and nationalistic politics. Well, basically, if we wouldn’t come before the people with bold, strong vision about the future of Europe, as I said, not tomorrow, not in couple of years, but as a vision where we would like to go, then I think populist movement would prevail, and this would be very, very bad, at least in my view, for the future of Europe.

So, let me say to you, when I am speaking about United States of Europe, I do not speak about United States of America, not about the melting pot. I am coming from very small country, small nation. For us, it is extremely important to maintain our identity. So, I would do nothing to jeopardise our identity, and I do respect the identity of Slovak people, of Czech people, of German people, and others. This, in a way, multiculturalism is something that we should preserve in European Union. I know how difficult it sounds today, but it is the only way to go.

Now, today, it seems like an utopia, but I think we are at the crossroad, and we have to pick the options, and those who are in favour of United Europe, I think we do not – we should not hesitate to say – to stay in front of the people and say, “Listen, our vision is United States of Europe in couple of decades. Whatever we will do, in next couple of years, we will do to become a very strong and United, you know, Union of 27 countries, maybe more in next couple of years.” Now, why it is this – why it is so important? Even the most developed country, as Great Britain is, as Germany is, as France is, where, I think, today, it is very difficult to compete, also for them, in this global economic and social environment. At least, in my view, the only way to go and be important in a global affairs is to be together, at least 27, and, as I said, maybe more, with our friends and colleagues in Western Balkans.

So, this is my very strong opinion on the future of Europe, because I would like to say that this would mean that I do advocate a United Europe, which would be united in economic affairs, in political affairs, and also, in military affairs. Now, not to misunderstand me, I advocated for NATO membership 15 – 16 years ago, before the referendum in my country, because I said NATO was extremely important for the security of the Western world, and I still do believe it is important. So, when I do speak about PESCO and other initiatives within European Union, I do not speak against NATO. I think, in years to come, NATO should have a strong European pillar, and that is exactly what European countries should do in, maybe, next ten years. Not to exclude NATO, but to be stronger, also, on security issue, not to mention, then, economic and political power, and to be a global power to affect global issues, like climate changes, like, I don’t know, other issues which do requires vision, power, argument, and the power which is devoted to a peaceful solution to all problems. That should be the identity of European Union, that, I mean, in this global world, where things are less predictable than they were used to, I think the only way to go is to be absolutely devoted to a peaceful solution of all problems. Number two – so, I would like to have strong Europe, with strong influence in global affairs, and the main identity, worldwide, would be the power which is struggling to solve all problems by peaceful means.

Number two, relations with United States, Russia and China. Number one, a lot of countries of European Union, among others, my country, are member of NATO. I think it’s extremely important now, in this very moment, because of different circumstances, to keep this partnership between European Union, United Kingdom and United States on the other side. I think we are all part of Western world. I think we do share common values. We share common approach to, at least it seems, we share same approaches to the most important issues of the future, not just for us, for our children, and we are devoted to help each other to prevent these values to be preserved. So, with the US, European Union should have a special relation, not just political, not just economic, but also, as I said, militarily. So, I think when debating those three power, USA, Russia and China, USA is one thing, we are partners. We have to develop all, you know, different kind of partnership. On the other side, Russia and China are there. China is rising power, Russia is always there, it is the biggest country in the world. I would like to see good relations with both Russia and China. I’m not naïve, I do know that it is extremely difficult to get President Putin onboard for different solutions that would then, you know, deepen the trust between Brussels and Moscow.

The Ukraine is maybe the most important issue that divide us. I’ve asked several times, President Putin to be a wise man, and to, you know, to do the very first step of goodwill, to implement this Minsk agreement, and we are still waiting, and we are waiting because he does not trust us. He thinks that only policy that we are advocating is to get Ukraine and other countries that are under frozen conflicts near or within the NATO. We can then come closer to this issue.

China is there. I think that it is extremely important for EU to have good relations with China, not underestimating something new, and this is that China is becoming, also, very strong military power. It has been the case that China has been there, very powerful. It’s becoming one of the strongest international economies, but with very modest approach to the military affairs, globally. Now, with its intervention in South East…

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

South China Sea.

HE Borut Pahor

…South China Sea, and other, in Taiwan, addressed by President Xi, maybe things are changing. We should be very careful. And now, to conclude with Western Balkans, before that, I should say as follows. I am inviting, for a long time, my colleagues in European Union, also a leadership in Kiev and in Ankara, to consider the option that the only thing that could be done in the future, as far as their membership is concerned, is a full membership. I do not agree. I think would be wise to think about a special status, special status which could be a final stage of successful negotiation between Kiev and Brussels, and Ankara and Brussels, and I’m very good personal friend to both President Poroshenko and President Erdoğan, and I said to both of them, “Would you concern – would you consider this option? I think this is way to go.”

In my view, it is very difficult to think that France, tomorrow, in the case of referendum on Turkey, would vote for a full membership. Maybe would vote for a special relations with Turkey, and it is so important, geopolitically speaking, to have Ukraine very close to European Union, and Turkey to have very close to the European Union, but I think wouldn’t be wise to push too much for their full membership, and I think it’s not fair to promise both sides that once, in the future, will be a membership. I think this is very, very sensitive political promise. I do have the different approach, as far as Europe – Western Balkans. Listen, Western Balkans, Western Balkans, where is the Western Balkans? Here. What is the, you know, volume? 15 million people. The absorption capacity of EU is absolutely, I mean, good enough to welcome 15 million people. They are very close to our values, cultural tradition. Okay, even Bosnia, even Muslim community there is very, very, you know, very close to our tradition and all that stuff.

So, I would like to end by saying that, from geopolitical point of view, it would be so important for the Brussels to finally see that the negotiation process between Western Balkans country, and Macedonia, Serbia, Kosovo, very sensitive issue, Bosnia in particular, Montenegro and Albania, is not a political – it’s not a technical issue, but it’s political issue, and I would like to speed this process before Russia will be there. Thank you so much [applause].

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Thank you. Thank you very much, Mr President. You’ve been specific and targeted with your time, tackled three big issues, put them on the table, I think, given a lot of food for thought for our members, and I’m sure, quite a bit of food for questions that will come in a minute. Let me take the privilege of the Chair, maybe, just to set a couple of questions up. I mean, I have to say, as a Brit, when you say, as the French often do, “When I talk about Europe, I mean the EU,” of course, in the UK, that’s going to feel ever more interesting position to sit in, depending on how things play out in the next month, to…

HE Borut Pahor

I wish you all the best.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

…two or three years.

HE Borut Pahor

I wish you all the best.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Well, our best may be that we’re in Europe and not in the EU, so that may be somewhere we end up, but it’s interesting, because what it does say, in a way, is that, potentially, it says that Britain ends up being with, to use your examples, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Norway, which is something that we may want to come…

HE Borut Pahor

Oh, but this is different.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

…back to and discuss. Yeah.

HE Borut Pahor

I mean, Great Britain would be different than Turkey or Ukraine, absolutely…

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Exactly.

HE Borut Pahor

…because of different reasons.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Yeah.

HE Borut Pahor

Yeah.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

So, not – as you said, geography and values…

HE Borut Pahor

No, things matter, yeah.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

…are very different things, precisely. So, it’d be good to come back where Europe and the EU, that differentiation comes out, ‘cause that was one of your comments, and the United States of Europe as your vision, and I will have one question in a second. Then second points, these critical relationships, now, with US, China and Russia, and I think there’s a lot of interesting discussion we can have here, particularly the growing role that China is playing, as well, in your part of the world, not simply Russia. And then your point about this differentiation of the Western Balkans, between the big population countries as well, of the Ukraine, Turkey, each which have a different strategic position, and what you said was the absolute geopolitical imperative, I think you said, of accelerating on the Western Balkans, which I think these are three really good issues for us to tackle into.

Let me just throw one in particular in your direction, on the United States of Europe. You talked about having power. I think of Europe as having power, even today, as a civilian power, whether it be on regulation, including in climate, data, etc., but you really brought out the issue, I think, of military power, or real power. Let me ask you one question, does that also mean monetary power? Slovenia is a member of the Eurozone. The big step forward for European integration, in a way, next, if you were to move towards the United States of Europe, probably would be around fiscal union, one of the most difficult areas. Is that – what – when you say a United States of Europe, what would be on your list? Would monetary union, moving to banking union, to fiscal union, be at the top of your list?

HE Borut Pahor

Well, my Advisor on economic affairs is their former Governor of our country, not that we do share all of same views on this issue, but if we would like to see Europe to be influential, then I think the need for fiscal union is obvious, and banking union is obvious. You cannot have one European central bank and 19 fiscal policies. Is that correct? So, I would like to see some step-by-step approach to this final goal. Let me say one thing. I’ve taken the post of Prime Minister at the end of 2008, after the news on Wall Street has been released that several banks were going under. It has been a very difficult time. Let me say one thing, this is very – my very personal observation, I could be mistaken, but being a Member of Eurozone helped Slovenia a lot to get out of crisis. To have, you know, a Governor to share there to advise me on certain things, to have other members of Eurozone help me a lot to take some decisions. Not every decision has been a perfect one, but, basically, Europe – being a member of Eurozone helped Slovenia to get out of crisis in a best possible way. Today, Slovenia is, I think, the best country, as far as economic growth is concerned, amongst 27, and I think – I said step-by-step. I think step-by-step would be fine to get some solutions on common fiscal policy and banking union, yes.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Well, so, when President Macron stepped up, as he did, to try and make that push, you know, we found that one of the countries we think of as being most in favour of a federal Europe, of the United States of Europe, Germany, when it comes to the monetary side, has often been one of the most resistant, along with some of the other Nordic countries in particular. And Slovenia’s been a country that also has been very disciplined, I think, with your deficits, with your debt. You’re almost thought of as, sort of, northern country, if I can say, within Europe. I mean, do you find yourself almost in a difficult position arguing for your case of United States of Europe, with some of these other more Nordic countries with which you associate?

HE Borut Pahor

I’ve been under severe criticism back home, because I was advocating, and I am still advocating, that Slovenia should be there where Paris and Berlin will be in the future. I didn’t say just Berlin, I didn’t say just Paris. For Slovenia, as a small country, geopolitically speaking, it is important that both countries would have this capacity to lead in a way, now without Great Britain, unfortunately. Saying this, I would like to mention that I’ve been a little bit disappointed with late Aachen agreement, not because wouldn’t be a step further, but the achievement has been less than I expected and I wished, you know? You know, 50 and plus years ago, this Paris Agreement…

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Élysée Treaty.

HE Borut Pahor

…Élysée Treaty…

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Yeah.

HE Borut Pahor

…you know, helped us with reconciliation, and all this stuff, to get here, when peace is stable for, you know, 75 years now. Okay, this is huge achievement, and all has been based on reconciliation, and I thought, “Okay, now this reconciliation is more or less over, at least as far as, you know, the heritage of Second World War is concerned.” Now, two countries, France and Paris, have unique chance to give us some sort of their vision, and invite everybody onboard, also Slovenia as a small country, to be there if wanted, because not that all European countries would share the view that would be good to be where Germany and France are, okay?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Hmmm hmm, and, you know, certainly, what we’re seeing at the moment is a European Union where the big debate in the European Parliamentary elections seems to be between those that want to push, perhaps, for a more integrated Europe, of the sort you’re describing, and several that are saying, “No, it’s time for Europe to be more sovereignty based, and for a return to the Europe of the nation states.” America, also being quite, with the current administration, being a big supporter for that particular view, as far as I can – if I’m looking at Steve Bannon’s travels around parts of Europe at the moment. So, do you feel, at the moment – who’s got the momentum behind them? Is it more the…

HE Borut Pahor

At the moment?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

…the sovereigntist, or is it…?

HE Borut Pahor

Yes.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Yeah.

HE Borut Pahor

At the moment, they have the initiative, and I said it before, that it’s time to come out with some bold ideas, with pragmatic approach. I think wouldn’t be fair to invite people to vote for those political forces that they are advocating stronger Europe, and then, the day after being without any idea how to do it. So, it’s time now to consider different options, and promise people that this will not happen tomorrow, but we will go strongly, you know, with a strong commitment this way.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Great. Let me take an opportunity to open up and get some questions here, please. When the microphone comes to you, let us know who you are, and if we’ve got – which is good, plenty of time, and if the audience is shy, which they might be at the beginning, I’ve got lots of questions I can ask, but gentleman’s put his hand up first, and I’ve got a question at the back as well, and Robert hiding there. So, one – okay. Just start here, and then I’ll go to the back, yeah.

Giovanni Gregoratti

Good evening President. My name is Giovanni Gregoratti, I am member of Chatham House. I run an investment firm not far from here, so I’m a numbers person. I’m a very pragmatic kind of person, very analytical, etc., but I accept, and I came to accept the fact that people are not as analytical and numbers-driven than most of us, and one thing that has been completely missing from, I think, the vision of Politicians, and leaders like yourself, I think, to date, even the ones having very bold visions, like yourself, which, by the way, I 100% share, is a sense of narrative, a sense of purpose, a sense that goes beyond the discussions on banking unions and fiscal unions, and budgets, etc., which plays so well in the hands of people that are opposed to the concept of European integration, European identity. Because I’m from Trieste, on the border with Slovenia, a city that has seen what unity and commonality of purpose and multiculturalism does, you know, to create, you know, happiness and prosperity, and what nationalism and racism does to exactly destroy all that. So, I think we’re at the stage where people like yourself, in addition to the Advisors that come from my background, would need some kind of a more, you know, soft but equally, if not even more powerful response to the sovereigntists, the nationalists, the populists that are actually blaming Europe for everything which is happening, and pointing at people like, I’m sorry to say, yourselves, as the bureaucrat, the faceless bureaucrats are actually – don’t share their, sort of, the sentiment.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

When you said – I think a big question, and an important to put right at the front, you know, how do you capture the high ground, if you see what I’m saying, in this battle, yeah, on the narrative?

HE Borut Pahor

Grazie. You know, the house of my mother is half a kilometre from Italian border, so I do pay special attention to what is going on in Italy, and I’m a little bit concerned, in framework of our debate today, but let me tell you one thing. If would be so simple to get to the arguments that would be good enough to be popular, that would be beautiful, but it is not at the moment, and I do confess that I’m not capable, at least at this very moment, to say more convincing stuff about the future, I shall say it. But let me tell you, in my approach in dealing with foreign politics and European politics, as President of the country, not a Prime Minister, my philosophy is to try to keep good relations, friendly relations, European relations with every leader among 27. So, basically, it’s about our, you know, our approach, how to deal with differences among us. I do respect your different view, because half a billion people in Europe, you know, have half a billion different ideas. This is the ground that we should start, and it is not to come to a consensus on majority of issue. Would be, for the start, enough to take into consideration different options and respect them, not exclude them, okay?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

And, just, quickly, because you mentioned on the narrative, a lot of the narrative of the EU, in its integrationist phase, was built on what you were trying to protect yourself from. I mean, the fortress Europe, in a way, was almost a good narrative, you could say, but it was protection against war, protections against communism, it was a protection against the rising powers, maybe of America and Japan, in the time of Eurosclerosis. Is it, today, that you need a narrative of protection against the rise of China, or the rise of – or a more aggressive Russia? Can you have a defensive narrative? Is that good enough, or are you looking for a more positive narrative?

HE Borut Pahor

Now, basically, if the proof of the lasting peace for last 70 years is not good enough to start with, then I don’t know what. Let us begin with reminding ourself that we do enjoy peace and security, and also, welfare. So, we should not neglect this basic fact, out of reconciliation among people and nations, and the narrative goes on. So, we have been able to preserve peace and stability. So, we are capable enough to provide, you know, welfare and our more influential, you know, power around the globe, if we will continue, and we will search for this politics that are uniting us. Some of them are not, but some of them are uniting us. Let us focus on elements that are uniting us. Basically, what is reconciliation process? To respect differences, but to build on the elements that are of common grounds.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Good, Robert, yeah.

HE Borut Pahor

This is the narrative.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

And I’ll come two questions here, yeah, Robert.

Robert Cooper

Hello, Robert Cooper. I used to work in the European Union, enjoyed it very much. The – a lot of fun. The…

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

On security, in particular.

Robert Cooper

From the – I wanted to go from the grand narrative to the particular, because, in the end, you solve problems by solving particular problems, and to make a suggestion, put a question to you, about the Western Balkans. I share, Mr President, your vision of the Western Balkans, full membership, that’s the goal. The trouble is that full membership, for some of them, it’s still quite a leap away. They’re in a bit – still in a mess, and I wonder if there isn’t some way in which the EU couldn’t devise a way of disaggregating membership. At the moment, membership is an all or nothing proposition. You have to tick all of the boxes, it’s very long, it’s very tedious, and at the end of it you get a very big prize. Now, wouldn’t there be some way – I sometimes say to myself, “Supposing they met the standards in the area of energy, maybe they could join as an observer in the Energy Council, so that there could be – instead of being one big leap, they could be a series of small steps.” Now, that would be in the procedural terms, and the EU’s all about procedure, that would be a revolution, and it would need, kind of, leadership from the top, but I wonder if something like that isn’t needed now.

HE Borut Pahor

Let me say one thing, and this is my personal reflection on the situation, it’s not the reflection of the official policy of my Government, or the Government of my country. Being a Co-Chairman of this Brdo-Brijuni that I have started ten years ago, the leaders of Brdo-Brijuni meeting process, and namely Presidents, Head of States, from Slovenia and then through Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Macedonia and Albania, will meet in Tehran in couple of months, at the beginning of May, I think. I’ve changed a little bit my view on the enlargement process of the Western Balkans. At the beginning, I have been of the opinion that the standard should be equal for all, and, basically, I am still advocating this basic criterium, but I am saying that Western Balkans is in a little bit specific conditions, that we should see a very specific part of European Union, and that is a limit of time, when European Union, with enlargement process, could solve the peace and security and welfare of those people, or will miss this window of opportunity, and things will go wrong, namely with Bosnia. If we will wait too long, then I think Bosnia will not view, you know, this European perspective, and maybe three nations will not be ready to think about one state, but about three states. I think this will be – this will jeopardise the peace and stability, the whole region, also, of the neighbourhood of European Union. So, my approach to Western Balkan is, let’s go a little bit out of the box. Your proposition is maybe one to consider, but we should not lose the time. The timing, now, is of essence, not to waste too much time, and wait that Bosnia will be equally prepared as, maybe, I don’t know, Czech Republic has been back in 2004, okay?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Good points. There’s a lady here, first, please, yeah, and then there was a…

Hadwik Forbes

I’m Hadwik Forbes, I work in [inaudible – 40:54]. I had question, you said one of the beautiful things about the European Union is that it’s been peaceful for 75 years. Do you not think that is one of the reasons why there’s so much unrest right now, because people have forgotten what it is to have a tough life?

HE Borut Pahor

Yeah.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Yeah, and it’s true.

HE Borut Pahor

Yeah.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

I mean, generationally, I think there’s been.

HE Borut Pahor

Yeah

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

But what do you say?

HE Borut Pahor

I think you are right, yeah, yeah. Partly, it is true. Partly, it is true. We are taking this peace and stability for granted, and everybody thinks that, basically, peace and stability will be there, nevertheless, if things go wrong. This is not true. If the process of this solution of European Union will start, you will see this could be irreversible process. I said, as a President of my country, if things in the future would go against our will, this way, in a, you know, disagreement among 27, we should be prepared, as a nation, to do our stuff. Why I am saying? I’ve been the youngest member of the house, back in 1990, when we decided to go for a national plebiscite on independence, and thanks God, we’ve been united in the decision to be an independent state. I cannot imagine what would happen back in Slovenia, and then would have consequences for former Yugoslavia, if the result would be 51-49.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Yeah, don’t bring up those percentages in this audience, in Britain, and, actually, just to your point there, it’s interesting that the security argument, in a way, failed in Brexit. I remember David Cameron’s argument very strongly about the security one. He was accused of scaremongering with World War Three, so it’s interesting how those arguments don’t always work as well. And gentleman there, then the lady here, yeah.

Sandi Dam

Thank you. Good evening Mr President. My name is Sandi Dam, I’m French-German by blood, otherwise born in Strasbourg. So, I’m obviously a convinced European. I tend to agree with most of what you said on the EU, although I do have a question on the Eurozone, on how you assess the risk of the Eurozone, on the future of the Eurozone, considering there’s a North and South, the split is getting stronger and stronger?

HE Borut Pahor

Well, I am one of those guys who are very in favour of fiscal discipline, not that everybody are, you know? This is the main division within Eurozone, to be more flexible or to be more disciplined. Well, I am one of those guys who are, you know, paying attention to that fiscal discipline. Basically, my Government has failed, because I went out with a – this pension reform, and it has been a consensus back home, and I’ve lost the referendum, and I’ve lost the concept of fiscal discipline. Two years after, next Government will get the majority for the same reform. So, I think that you’ve mentioned before President Macron and Chancellor Angela Merkel. I think Macron is a little bit more artistic in formulating the vision of Europe, and Angela, expectedly, is much more pragmatic, but this is unique combination. It is fantastic to have both on board. We need both, but to your question, I think fiscal discipline is of extreme importance for the confidence to the Euro. If there will – yeah, if there will be no fiscal discipline, I’m not sure that the voters back in Germany, or in other healthy, economically healthy states would be supportive to those countries, who are periodically in problems, and would like to have more flexible politics. So, let us avoid to have Greece one again.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Okay, lady here, please.

Katie Lassilow

Katie Lassilow, Chatham House Member. Mr President, when you started your speech, in my mind, you told me that you’ll start, “I have a dream,” and I totally share your thoughts about European Union, and I hope that everybody will find a positive solution to whatever you said.

HE Borut Pahor

Sorry, but we are in London now.

Katie Lassilow

Yes, absolutely, and that was…

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

But, surely, London is the opposite in the UK.

Katie Lassilow

…a message, you know, that was a message…

HE Borut Pahor

Okay.

Katie Lassilow

…because it’s recorded, everything. So, Mr President, I would very much appreciate your thoughts on multispeed Europe. Is this whatever realistic is? Is this something you think it’s positive thing, or is this something fuelling the nationalistic approach, and really being counterproductive towards your dream of the United States of Europe? Thank you.

HE Borut Pahor

A couple of years ago, in my capacity of the President, I had a privilege to, frankly, speaking to one of the most important Central and Eastern European leaders. And I said, “Listen, it’s my dream to be there as Germany and France will be in the future,” and he said, “Come on, come on, are you sure that Germany and France would like to see you there?” Well, I said, “Listen, if I would be prepared enough as a country, maybe would be less, you know, second thoughts about our place there,” but it will be difficult, not just because of economy, but, as he said, about our identity, our different tradition. We would like to keep our identity, then. We do speak our language. I would not vote for a European Union as United States of Europe if Slovenian language wouldn’t be an official language of the union. I’ve been, for eight years, member of European Council. Every time, when I stand up and speak, I should speak in English, which is a beautiful language, but it is not my language. So, I would like that – to say that there are limits to my approach, but I do still have a dream, and I know that there is a danger that, maybe, maybe, because of different approaches to this vision of more united Europe, maybe, also in the future, will be different circus or speeds of Europe, yes. Unfortunately, but maybe this is necessary, better than we would go apart, better than we would go apart, okay?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Thank you. Ambassador at the front, please, yeah, the microphone’s there.

L’ubomír Rehák

Thank you, Mr President. I feel obliged to intervene, because I’m Ambassador of Slovakia, and I want to contribute to this per the attempt with my Slovenian colleague, Tadej Rupel, here in our programme, distinguished Slovenian in Slovakia, here in Britain. My question, we heard about the division, South and North, and so on. There are also divisions between East and West, and one of the most imminent problems is problem of immigration. How do you think that this problem could be tackled?

HE Borut Pahor

Well, in a way, I’ve surprised domestic public when I’ve been very strong in favour of this global conduct, when, you know, certain Central and Eastern European countries, you know, begun with this refusal to this idea at [inaudible – 49:42]. I decided to go publicly with support, because I do believe in multilateralism. I’m strong believer in multilateralism, and maybe this conduct is not, you know, perfect one, nothing is, nobody’s perfect, nothing is perfect, but it is a signal that if we would like to solve this extremely sensitive human and also security issue, I think we should work together, and this is my approach, also, at the level of European Union. When the Government of Slovenia, at the European Council, refused at the beginning the idea of quotas, I have been critical to this decision. I said that this is a wrong decision, that I think that we should share the burden, and that Slovenia could not accept, you know, one million of refugees and asylum seeker. I do feel, by the way, that the real common politic has been a mistake, mistake because we have not been consulted on this invitation to come, and, you know, people went through our countries, half a million, went illegally, basically, illegally or, you know, in a way – not – yeah, right.

So, to your question, I am in favour of burden sharing. I would like to see your country and Czech Republic and Hungary to be a little bit more flexible. I think this would help to solve the problem, but let me say one thing. That the first step should be stronger outside border security. Okay, we shouldn’t be too sentimental, but we shouldn’t be, also, no sentimental at all. We should be politically wise, because if we will not get to a consensus on this issue, then there is a chance that people across Europe wouldn’t believe in common European institutions to be capable to solve such a problems, and we’ll go back to domestic problem, to domestic policies, and they will then put walls, because they will not, you know, be confident to European Union. This is not good way to go. So, I think, you know, if we went through economic crisis, and financial crisis, with some out of the box ideas, I’ve been there as Prime Minister three years, member of EU Council, then I think we are capable to get some sort of consensus on migration issue, okay?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Let me bring in a couple of questions myself. I’m looking around, ‘cause we have about five, seven minutes to go. A couple more specific ones, but one I think that fits to the vision of Europe, there is some discussion right now between Serbia and Kosovo on trying to break this intractable standoff that they’ve held, which has drawn in a number of EU member states as well. There’s not a common EU position, as you know well, still, to Kosovo. There is some discussion, at least, in, conceptually, of land swaps. Where do you, as somebody who looks to the future of Europe, and to, kind of, balances, and still that national identity, which is so strong is so many countries, where – what’s your instinct, your first instinctive view on these ideas?

HE Borut Pahor

I’ve been there, at [inaudible – 53:34] conference at the end of August, last year? Last year, yes, when [inaudible – 53:42] and [inaudible – 53:43], two of my very good friends, came with this idea, and I’ve asked them, “Guys, are you ready to take the risk?” and, basically, debating with them on this very bold idea, I came to a conclusion, which is a – my reflection. It is – does not reflect the official approach of my country to this issue. The official approach to this issue is much more German than mine. Germany’s very reserved to this idea. Well, I’m of the opinion that, maybe, after 20 years with basically no good solutions, it’s time to think a little bit out of the box, but the process should be controlled by international community. Two partners should give the assurances that they will negotiate in good faith, and only by peaceful means, and for a peaceful solution, and that this process will not have any collateral damage for the neighbourhood, meaning Republika Srpska, or other countries.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

So, open to it, but as you said, with those particular restrictions. One other…

HE Borut Pahor

This approach, yes.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

…point to areas of European unity, the 16+1 process. You raised China quite a bit in your remarks about wanting to have good relationships with China and Russia, but without being naïve, as you’ve said. The Chinese obviously have some great ideas and plans and they see a need for infrastructure in Eastern Europe, but they also have diplomatic interests as well. What’s your, again, your instinctive position to this idea of a, in essence, a separate, non-EU process that involves, also, some non-EU members, running, in a way, parallel to the European Union’s foreign policy position? Benign, or do you see it as something that, kind of, undercuts the vision you described of a United States here?

HE Borut Pahor

At the Bucharest Summit of Three Seas Initiative, which is initiative of 12 countries, plus EU at the Bucharest meeting, not before, plus the Government of United States, huh? I’ve decided to host the next meeting in – at the beginning of June this year. So, there will be 12 countries of Central and Eastern Europe. I decided to invite, also, the German President, to, a little bit, reshape the identity of the group, and then Jean-Claude promised me last week that he will attend the meeting, as the Commission President, and the High Representative of – from United States is there. And I said at the Munich Security Conference that I wouldn’t like to see this Three Seas Initiative as an American approach to part of Europe, as Chinese have done successfully with 16+1. So, that is why I decided to invite German President, to a little bit change the identity, and I am thankful to Jean-Claude that he accepted an invitation to come, also, to Ljubljana, which is then a little bit different in a nature of the meeting, which will have, also, the business conference aside, than 16+1. But China is there. China is coming.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

So, I’m going to ask one more question, and we’re looking around the room here, and there’s a hand going up there. So, this is what happens in the end. So, two questions, plus mine, and we’ll let everyone get on and let you finish. Please, yeah.

Michael Hartt

Michael Hartt from FleishmanHillard. You talked about the need to think outside the box, perhaps a more flexible approach, in terms of the Western Balkans. I’d be curious for your thoughts on what type of flexibility is needed for EU members that maybe aren’t meeting standards, maybe aren’t behaving the way some people would like, and I think there are a few particular examples that have certainly drawn lots of attention, Poland and Hungary, but your thoughts on how we should be managing that relationship around behaviour that people may not feel is acceptable.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Rule of law, constitutional change, etc., yeah. Sorry, gent – yes, please, there.

HE Borut Pahor

Very sensitive issues.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Oh, there’s a lady.

Sana

Yeah.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Right, okay, two people in that case. Go on, yeah.

Sana

Hi, I’m Sana. I just finished my [inaudible – 58:31] of the EU, so I very much like your vision. I’m interested in wat you said about Turkey. I think it’s a really pragmatic solution, the special status, but for me, like, when I was in the institutions, everyone was quite open about the fact that it will never happen, and it’s only because of NATO and because of the refugees. So, my question is, what’s preventing it? Is it Turkey’s reluctance? Is it because there’s too much paperwork and no-one can be bothered? Is it because everyone’s in denial, or it’s just easy to carry on? Thank you.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Can you pass the microphone just in front of you, ‘cause of the gentleman – yeah, exactly, thank you.

Phillip Stacey

Thank you. Hello, Phillip Stacey, Chatham House Member. I just wondered, could you say a few more words about what Russia is up to in the Western Balkans?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Right. The last question’s always the toughest, because – I’m going to throw – I mean, we’ve got a list of four to finish up, but you did say when we spoke earlier, President, as President, that…

HE Borut Pahor

Is there any more difficult question…

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Oh, yes.

HE Borut Pahor

…beside Brexit, I mean?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

And there you go and yes, you said that you wouldn’t mind touching on Brexit at the end. I’m not even going to set it up. I’ll let you say whatever you want to say about Brexit, ‘cause I think – but I think, you know, as we said earlier, it’s rare, at the moment, to have European leaders passing through the UK, because they want to be careful what they’re saying, and Foreign Ambassador Honey is aware of that. So, if you could just let us know any thoughts on that. So, we have flexibility, rule of law, Turkey, Russia, Western Balkans and Brexit, all in five/ten minutes. No-one’s leaving, so this is a good sign.

HE Borut Pahor

Flexibility is the way to go, but, you know, we share common values. We have to stick with them. I’m a strong believer in democracy. A rule of law is one of pillar of democratic society. Now, because of different traditions, I wouldn’t say that whatever our friends in Poland are doing is wrong. It’s, maybe, a little bit because of their different tradition. Also, as far as rule of law is concerned, I’m ready to be a little bit flexible, but not too much, okay?

Your question on Turkey, at the beginning, I thought that, maybe, the idea to have Turkey as a full member maybe was not so bad, but I’ve changed this dramatically in a couple of years. Nevertheless, as a Prime Minister, I have signed with Erdoğan, as Prime Minister at that time, a agreement on special relations between Slovenia and Turkey. I’ve been the first Head of State to visit, officially, Ankara after coup d’état, and you have different illustrations of this friendship, personal and political, between two states, but with certain differences between me and Erdoğan, and two countries. My great worries goes to the point of no return, as far as reconciliation in Turkish society’s concerned. You cannot fight against your enemy with so dramatic, you know, measures, and I said it to Erdoğan, that, you know, at the end of the day, as the President, should keep the country together, with all those prisoner, press – you know, pressing the freedom of the press, and all that stuff, it will be so difficult to get Turkey, once again, onboard for European perspective, and will be difficult for France and Europe to be alongside Turkey if it will continue to go this way. Not to underestimate Turk – a Kurdish issue and all that stuff.

So, I would like to be a little bit more pragmatic. I do feel that the majority of countries, 27, would now, vote in favour of Turkey to go on with negotiations until the end of the process, but if, at the end of the process, will not be full membership, but the special status, I think the process would go easier. The same goes for Ukraine, and now…

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Russia and the Balkans.

HE Borut Pahor

…Russia. Listen, first of all, let me tell you, Slovenia has not been a country under Warsaw Pact. So, you can, you know, walk around our countries, and you would feel a lot of sympathies for Moscow, not because of Putin’s, you know, political, you know, agenda, but because of, you know, huge Russian traditional influence in European affairs. I mean, cultural – I don’t know, those, you know, good one, but now the question, to me, is how to persuade Putin to change a little bit his approach on Ukraine, to be a little bit more flexible, and to do as I ask him to do the very first step to implement this agreement and to show that there is a political will that the problem would be solved. But, unfortunately, I am very disappointed that Russia, in my view, and I am speaking as a friend of Russia, in a way, supporting sanctions that…

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Like good friends should, and that rings true.

HE Borut Pahor

Listen, the best possible one.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Exactly.

HE Borut Pahor

I know that he’s afraid that NATO is going there, and now he keeps eyes on two geopolitical territories. One is around Ukraine, and the other is Western Balkans. So, I am not too much optimistic that tomorrow will change his policy. Both sides have to make some move of, you know, to deepen the trust between each other. I, basically, at the end of the day, I am in favour of a fair compromise between Brussels, Brussels as NATO headquarter, and Brussels as European Union headquarter and Moscow. That would be, basically, good for the future, and solving, you know, problems around Europe. And now the final question, and we are out of the time.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Exactly, exactly, completely.

HE Borut Pahor

Let me say once, one thing. As everybody in Europe, I think, I’ve paid a lot of attention to the last referendum on Brexit, and in the morning, I was sorry, but I’m not the British citizen. I do respect your political will, the will of people, and I think we’ve managed quite good to come to some sort of deal, and let me say, now, and this is very my – my very personal view, once again, if there is a possibility that London and Brussels would come to an agreement to amend the deal with a strong support of official Dublin, not against Dublin, but with the support of Dublin, I think that Tusk and Jean-Claude will take the risk to invite the Council to think about it. If Dublin will say, “This is no way to go,” I think Council – the next Council will not even consider the option to open the Pandora box, and risk that the vision will not be only in London, but also in Brussels. So, I would be in favour of searching a proper compromise solution, but as far as this Irish issue, Dublin should be in favour of, and I think, then, everybody would be in favour of rethinking this possibility of the amendment. If not, I think it will stay so, and I’m very concerned if the Brexit will end with no deal.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Well, President Pahor, thank you very much indeed for all of your remarks [applause]. So, a big thank you. Thank you very much, and we hope to welcome you back again soon. Thank you very much for coming, and thank you for staying so late, everyone, as well, thank you.