Lebanon: A Vision for the Future

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

So, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Chatham House. I have to say, I’ve been here for a number of years as Director of the Institute, but this is as crowded a meeting as we’ve had, Prime Minister, I have to say, yes. I think even Brexit didn’t quite get – oh, seriously, maybe we’re all a little tired of Brexit. But from one difficult situation, if I may say, welcoming you back to Chatham House for another, let me just formally welcome Saad Hariri, Prime Minister of Lebanon, to Chatham House. A return visit, 2010, I think you said, was the last time you were here. So, we’re thrilled that you would come and join us for this discussion about Lebanon, A Vision for the Future, and welcome to our guests, who join us on the livestream. We were discussing, on the way down here, or reminding ourselves about whether we could have had a Chatham House Rule meeting, and I think in this, sort of, sized audience, obviously, this meeting, to remind everyone here, is on the record. And, of course, I do want to just note here, we’re delighted to have Prime Minister Hariri with us, for this second time, that he’s held this position, having been Prime Minister from 2009 to 2011 and being reappointed to this position in December 2016. He’s been the leader of the Future Movement Party in two stints, 2005 to 2009, again in 2016. Obviously, since the Parliamentary elections took place about seven months ago, he is facing this perennially difficult task in Lebanon, of trying to get a formal Government established and it is, obviously, essential that this be done in the context of the investment, that I know you’re so keen to see the country be able to secure, and which I think is the main purpose, or one of the main purposes, of your visit here to London.

Of course, Lebanon, just to say at the beginning, is a microcosm, I think, today, of the geopolitical, as well as sectarian conflicts affecting the whole of the Middle East and North Africa and, obviously, therefore, contains many of the difficulties. I would say, as well, Lebanon, I think, and you see it from this room here, has always been an emblem of the entrepreneurialism, the positivism and the hope that we have for the future of the region, as well, and for resilience. And, from that point of view, in particular, we’d like to thank you very much for coming to Chatham House, for sharing your thoughts with us. We’ll have some remarks, there’ll be plenty of time for discussion with you, for some Q&A. But, Saad Hariri, welcome back to Chatham House. Great to have you with us. Thank you [applause].

Saad Hariri

Good morning. I’m honoured and humbled to have the opportunity to address this distinguished audience, which I am also sure will be a tough audience. I thank Chatham House and Dr Robert Niblett, for having me. I’m here during very complicated times, both for my country and the region. As you may already know, we had the elections in May, the first in nine years. President Aoun and I agreed to steer the country towards economic and political stability, through reforms, capital investments and strengthening our security institution, in the respect of our constitutions, British constitution and our democracy.

Since May, I have spared no effort to form a National Unity Government. I entered consultation in good faith to ensure fair representation in the Council of Ministers. I’m a patient man and I’m willing to wait and find a solution, which some don’t like. But this is not about me, it is about Lebanon. Our country cannot afford to continue without a Government that can protect Lebanon from regional turmoil and economic downfall. I’m confident that we will reach a Government soon, as all realise that the need for stability and economic growth, far outweighs any political agenda. Lebanon remains an oasis of peace and stability. We have tested Civil War, long before all other countries in the region and learned many lessons. I, for one, am adamant never to allow the return of divisions and strife, and even though our power sharing agreement might be complicated, we have to always remember it is the, sort of, agreement most countries in the region are aspiring to obtain today.

Now, for the really difficult part. Lebanon is in a really, really rough neighbourhood, extremely rough. We have to work very hard to prevent the fires from neighbouring Syria to spread to our country and to avoid the belligerent escalation in the Netanyahu Government seems to be embarked on. This dual task is complicated by the presence of 1.5 million displaced Syrians, 200,000 Palestinian refugees, and the accusation made by Israel, recently. To begin with displaced and refugee population and to give you an order of magnitude, it is as if the United Kingdom has had 33 million refugee on its territory today. In Lebanon today, we have four million Lebanese and about two million refugees. This has placed incredible pressure on our infrastructure, basic services and fiscal situation. We are receiving humanitarian assistance, which is welcome, but still insufficient, and we are working hard to mobilise the international community to do its part, concerning – considering Lebanon is providing a public good to the world.

Our army and security services are on constant alert to prevent any terrorist infiltration and our national consensus stands strong in the face of extremism. We faced Israeli escalation by committing to international law and resolution, most importantly, United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. We consider the Lebanese Army as a sole defender of sovereignty and we are engaged in a national dialogue process to agree on a national defence strategy, which would resume as soon as a government is formed.

In the many inter-Arab conflicts, my incumbent Government has taken the decision that Lebanon, including all political formation in Government, will abide by a policy of dissociation. This policy will be maintained in the new Government. The region also faces a historic source of instability in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Our position is that of Arab consensus, as expressed by the legal Arab states and by the Arab Peace Initiative, in 2002. Basically, we see no other solution than two separate states, the capital of the Palestinian state in Jerusalem and the right of return guaranteed to the Palestinian diaspora.

This last point is of particular importance to us, since our constitution forbids the permanent implantation of refugees, and our national consensus on this will remain unshakeable. I believe Lebanon has an essential role in the region as a model of co-existence and tolerance. It is rampart in the face of extremism. Lebanon has always been the laboratory of creativity and innovation in the Arab world, and this era of destructive technology and transition towards a new economy, this role will be maintained and reinvented. My incumbent Government started, three years ago, laying the groundwork in legislation, telecom infrastructure and education. The new Government will continue on this path and I am sure the legendary resilience, creativity and human capital of the Lebanese will do the rest. Thank you [applause].

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Thank you very much, Prime Minister. Thank you for those remarks and for setting out some of the challenges your country currently faces. I want, in particular, to take the opportunity, maybe, just to start, if I may say, of the simple side of this, on the economy. Not least, because I think part of the reason you’re here is to try to drum up some of the much-needed investment in the country, in particular, in infrastructure. You mentioned telecoms there, but you could go to waste management, which has become a big issue, as you are very well aware, in your country, electricity, etc. Could you just say a word, or two, about where the country is on that process? How important is it to have a fully functioning Government in order to be able to, both, attract the investment and to be able to undertake some of the reforms in that space? Could you just say a word, or two, about that economic challenge?

Saad Hariri

Yeah, okay. What we did is, you know, we have particular circumstances with 1.5 million refugees and we have had 1% of growth in Lebanon since, I think, 2014/2015 and it’s been, you know, very staggering, on this issue. The way to, you know, have quick growth and deal with unemployment of Lebanese youth, and also, you have 75% unemployment among the refugees, we had to look for, you know, outside the box. And we looked at where we could, you know, invest money and create jobs quickly and move the economy, increase the growth, and increase our – grow our economy, that will affect that GDP in our economy. This has a very good effect on our, you know, on our general economy. Just also to let you know that, historically, Lebanon always has used Syrian manpower for all the infrastructure work that we’ve had in the past.

In the early 90s, for instance, we’ve had 600 to 800,000 Syrians working in Lebanon on agriculture and infrastructure jobs. So, our idea is how to stabilise socially, you know, the country, especially with the presence of the 1.5 million Syrians and, also, make sure that our youth and our Lebanese people have enough jobs in the CEDRE Conference. So, went to CEDRE, we represented 250 projects. We wanted to do reform, so we brought in the World Bank, we brought in the IMF, we sat all together, saw each project by itself and took the advice of the IMF, how to fix our fiscal problems. And we agreed, all of us in the Government, in the incumbent Government, that before going to CEDRE, we agreed on all the reforms, we agreed on all the projects and Hamdallah, we went to CEDRE and we got the money that we asked for.

So now, since the elections, we have been working. Yes, we had the elections, but work didn’t stop. For instance, because we thought that certain reforms need to be passed straightaway, after CEDRE, even with a caretaker Government, we went to the Parliament, we passed – we have about 14 laws of reforms. In CEDRE, we passed about five of them, even though we had a caretaker Government and the new Parliament pass them. We had an agreement, also, with the Speaker of the House and Parliament, that any law that has to do, or reform that has to do with CEDRE, needs to go on a fast track.

Usually, just to give you an instance, you know, because of the bureaucracy we have in Lebanon, a reform law or a loan that we get from World Bank, usually used to take a year or two. Today, it takes three to four weeks. So, there is a fast track method that we’re working in the Government. Because everybody realises in Lebanon that we cannot sustain our economy, we cannot sustain the 1.5 million refugees in Lebanon, if we do not create jobs for us, for the Lebanese, and Lebanon has to change. We cannot work like we used to work ten years ago or 15 years ago or 20 years ago. Yesterday, in the Joint Parliamentary Committee, we finally agreed on changing our commercial law that was done in 1958, I think, so imagine, you know, after how many years, 60 years? So, we finally changed our commercial law.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

And so, on these adjustments you were just talking about, part of the idea, I presume, had been, or hope had been, that as the conflict in Syria wound down, in some shape or other, and that would provide an opportunity either to – for refugees to go back or opportunities, also, for Lebanese companies to be able to be involved in reconstruction. Now, to state the obvious, we seem to be in an impasse in that conflict with outside powers saying they’re not going to provide that support, or not legitimise it, not lift sanctions, without some type of a political solution being developed for Syria. How important is resolving Syria for your economic hope in Lebanon?

Saad Hariri

I mean, Syria represents a path for us, also to Iraq, to Jordan, to the Gulf, that’s, you know, one of the issues that is extremely important. But also, you know, the 1.5 million, for us, and being in Lebanon, is very heavy on our economy, is always heavy on our environment, our social fabrics, our – so it was extremely heavy. We – our strategy has been, you know, we invest in infrastructure, prepare Lebanon as a platform so, eventually, big companies from Britain or the United – or the European Union, would like to come and invest in Lebanon or make Lebanon as a hub for them to go through their reconstruction in Syria, in Iraqi, even in Libya. ‘Cause Lebanon is a multicultural country and we want to make it we’re all shooting for how to make business, you know, go easier in Lebanon. So, I want to make Lebanon as a service, you know, a service hub for a lot of the international companies to come to Lebanon. I want to – we want to make sure that the platform of everything that they need, from internet or, you know, energy and anything they want, should be in Lebanon. This is what we’re trying to work out. And Syria represents a big market, as is Iraq, as Iraq represents, for Lebanon, a big market, too, and we already have a lot of business between Lebanon and Iraq and we want to make sure that this grows.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Of course, Iraq and other countries are struggling, at the moment, also to be able to get its Government in place. I do want to open up, in a minute, to questions, so those of you can have your questions ready. But let me just give you a chance to address one more issue at the moment, which is internal, but the extent to which, at the moment, from your perspective, obviously, sadly, in the last legislative elections, your party took a little bit of a hit and it appears to, certainly, have given an element of confidence to Hezbollah to want to be more adamant in designing what a future formal Government would look like. What’s your sense of, well, a) how unlikely is it that we will get to, or you will get to, a Government that moves beyond the caretaker arrangement, even though it seems to be doing a lot of stuff, how likely is that to happen? And what, kind of, compromises do you think might be needed too, for that to be achieved?

Saad Hariri

I think after Chatham House, you know, a discussion we will be forming the Government very soon. Especially if I don’t slip in any question.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Well, we don’t want to make it difficult for you to achieve any of those, yeah.

Saad Hariri

I think, you know, the Government is extremely important but, you know, I’ve set myself in a way where, for me, the focus is how to make CEDRE functional. Either we have a Government, you know, and this is something that will be a big plus for us but, at the same time, today, I came to London and met with so many officials and so many financial institutions, and so many businesses, and, you know, business can be – we can do business in Lebanon, even with a caretaker Government, and we also have some agreements with the Parliament that we can pass laws. But the ideal thing with – yes, would be forming the government. I think we’re at the last 100 metres of forming the Government. Hopefully, we should form it before the end of the year.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Good, I won’t ask how many metres there were before the 100, but we will see. Right, let me draw a few questions in. I’m going to take them, I think, originally, one at a time and we’ll see how we go on time, then I’ll group a few of them, as well. And yeah, first please, there’s a hand there, oh yeah, please, yeah. Yeah, Sawsan, yeah, and then I’ll come over to this side, yeah.

Sawsan Asfari

And thank you.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Keep going.

Sawsan Asfari

I’m Sawsan Asfari, the Asfari Foundation. I understand Lebanon is challenged on the foreign policy front and we’re not always able to make our own decisions. But on the domestic front, who is responsible for the mountains of garbage that are poisoning our air and land, for the cut in electricity? For the sewerage seeping into our water and our land? I mean, there must be some way of tackling the corruption and who is responsible for fixing it?

Saad Hariri

Look, you know, the problem what happened in Lebanon, maybe if we can take two minutes on this?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Yes, no, no, no.

Saad Hariri

After the assassination of my father, the country went into a huge division. People were not listening to each other, not talking to each other. We were actually talking at each other, we were not listening to each other. Until we – I decided, in 2016, to make two initiatives to break this, you know, this division we have in the country, where I went and nominated a candidate for Presidency from the other side of, you know, of what we believe that should be a President. And I think that, in the first initiative, we failed, on the second initiative, with President Aoun, we succeeded, and this had mixed the cards on the – you know, politically.

But what did the division do to Lebanon? Nothing. The problem is, if you want to blame somebody, you should blame all of us, because we were politically totally against each other. Anybody that presented a project from the right, the left would refuse it and everybody, you know, that would present a project or a law on the left, we all used to work on how to make sure the others fail. And I think the right mix was, as we elected President Aoun, we decided, all of us, to put the differences on the side, especially the regional issues. Because, you know, Hezbollah’s not going to change my mind on Iran, and I’m not going to change his mind on Saudi Arabia or the Gulf or what we believe in, or our alliance with Great Britain or the United States and all these countries, but – and I’m not going to change my mind about his way in dealing in the region. So we decided to put our differences, regional differences, aside and we decided to focus on what is good for the country, in the past year and half, that’s why we were able to do a budget, budgets that we didn’t do for 12 years, and that’s why we were able to agree, together, on an election law, knowing that, you know, when I agreed on the election law – actually, most Governments, when they do election laws, they do the election laws on assuming some results that will come out good for them. What I signed for is knowing that I’m going to lose in these elections, just for the sake of wanting the country to move forward.

My policy has been always, you know, if we stand still, we’re not going to advance. We need to compromise. So definitely, what happened in the garbage, what happened in the electricity, what happened in all of that, is due to all our mistakes, all of us together, and now we have passed a plan for energy, we have passed a plan for the waste and solid waste, we’ve passed a plan for a strategy for telecommunication. We should have spent, for instance, on fibre-optics or the internet, an investment of 600 to $700 million, in the early 2010, but we didn’t because of our division. We did it in 2017 and now it’s rolled, and the same thing on energy, now we’re working very closely with the World Bank, with the IM – with the IFC, on helping us to develop all these plans. So, hopefully, once we’ve formed this Government, you will see a lot of those issues being resolved because we have now, a strategy on how to tackle these problems.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Let me - first the gentleman here, then I’ll go to you there, then I’m coming back to the other side, yeah.

Dr Richard Kuo

Yes, good afternoon, your Excellency. I’m Dr Kuo from Pier Capital. I have two questions. The first, Lebanon benefited from a robust banking system, historically. The sector is larger than the one in Greece or in Argentina, for instance. Deposit inflows are estimated at $2.4 billion this year, compared to 7.3 billion last year. To slow down in deposit inflows, mean that now they fall short of external financing requirements. Funding shortfall is estimated at $2 billion in 2018. What measures would you consider introducing to increase depositor’s confidence in the medium-term, keeping in mind increase in deposit rates and, particularly, the increase in dollar-wise deposits in the country?

Second question, his Excellency, the Governor of Bank of Lebanon, supports the introduction of Lebanese digital currency, which it plans to launch in 2019. To what extent do you believe the adoption of blockchain technology and of Lebanese crypto currency, can help address the reduction of liquidity in Lebanon? Thank you.

Saad Hariri

No, I think there are several, you know, reasons why we have, you know, decreased deposits in Lebanese banks. First of all, you know, the Gulf States, you know, the remittances that we used to get from the Gulf States has diminished because, also, the Gulf States are suffering from an economic situation. You have less Lebanese working there and you have less salaries that are being paid in the Gulf. We used to get remittances about nine billion or eight billion, I think. From this region, it dropped down to, I think, five or something like this. So, this is part of the reasons why we get less investment. Plus, the other part is you have higher interest rate in the – you know, you have higher interest rate in the world.

The United States has increased its interest rate up to, I think, 3.5 now, and this will – this is not only Lebanon suffering from it, but you’ll see all the cash, the dollar, in the region, has diminished because of the increase in interest rate. What we’re doing today and to increase that part of pumping money into the country, is opening up our private sector and our, you know, PPP law that we passed in 2017 and all the projects that we want to do, whether it’s energy, whether it’s telecom, whether it’s the waste management, or solid waste, our – we want to renew, we want to expand our airport from six million to 15 million. This is going to be done by BOT and this is all money going to – is going to come into the country to bring all these projects.

Plus, you have the 11.8 billion that was committed in CEDRE, these are on projects, specific projects that are studied by the World Bank and this is money that’s going to come into the country. And also, at the same time, we’re talking with several Arab states and not only, but also our friends in Europe, our friends in the United States, to see if we can do some deposits into the Central Bank to increase our dollars into Lebanon. This is something that we have just launched, just a week ago, but all the things that I said before, this is the plan, how to bring money into the country. The second question was it?

Dr Richard Kuo

The crypto currency.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Digital currency and whether it would get blockchain technology.

Saad Hariri

I’m going to let [inaudible – 26:23] answer that, eventually. I’m just going to sit and watch it, you know.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Yeah, that’s the good thing about having, sort of, a Government at times, yes.

Saad Hariri

And this is – you know, I can’t interfere in what he does. But I hope that I…

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

There’s a gentleman first here, and then I’m going to the lady there, and then I will get others in, yeah.

Jaffa Rahma

I’m Jaffa Rahma, Freelance Journalist. Prime Minister, why is it taking you so a long time to form a Government? And how are you going to implement your vision and policies if, after seven months, these elections, you are still struggling to form a Government?

Saad Hariri

I think, you know, we just came back from an election that took us nine years to take, to do, or ten. So, for a ten-year election, six months and a half is – and I’m pretty sure that by the end of the year, we’ll have a Government Inshallah. I think, you know, the challenges are very hard, yes, there is a new set of people in the Parliament and we need to take that into consideration. Some people want more, some people want less. This is democracy in the end, some people would want to take it, you know, this is a regional issue, this is an X, Y, Z, you know, issue. But if you look at in some democracies, like Benjamin, other countries, sometimes also in Germany took some while to form a Government at the beginning. So, we’re getting there, I think we’re – it’s a not regional issue. I believe it’s an internal issue. It’s because the equation changed a little bit in Parliament and some people want more. I believe that most of the obstacles were resolved. There’s still one obstacle, and I’m sure that we are able to resolve it.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Are external funders helping or not helping, I’m thinking, including the World Bank, etc., in terms of their demand or the need for moving beyond the caretaker Government? Is it helpful to have pressure from the outside on this, or is it really irrelevant, in a way, this is a case of having to resolve things internally, entirely?

Saad Hariri

There are no two people who differ on the need of having – forming a Government. I think, you know, when the World Bank and other institutions, you know, pushes us and to form a Government, I think this is for the benefit of Lebanon. And, you know, I think the pressure that we have, from the economic crisis that we have in Lebanon, is pushing more and more people to form the Government. Most importantly, is most people today really believe in the reforms that are in CEDRE because everybody understand that we cannot do business as usual or as before, we need to change, and we need to change now.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Okay, the lady here and we’ll come to the gentleman here, yeah, okay.

Member

Thank you. [Inaudible – 29:11], it’s lovely to see you here, actually, and I’m going to make sure not to ask you anything to slip, so that we have a new Government, hopefully. Prime Minister, I want to ask you about Israel. I mean, Israel doesn’t need a reason, like the tunnel, to attack Lebanon? Have you discussed this possibility with the Government yet and what did they tell you? Thank you.

Saad Hariri

About the tunnels, you mean?

Member

Yes, because Israel is threatening us, thank you.

Saad Hariri

Well, I just want to tell, you know, since we are in Chatham House, I mean, you open the news today and you see, you know, some of the headlines and you see that, you know, Lebanon has tunnels that go through all the way to Israel and there is some allegation that Hezbollah is doing those tunnels. But have you ever heard about how many sorties Israel makes every month into Lebanon? Have you ever heard how many times Israel entered our international waters? Have you? Has anyone? Do you think this is fair? Do you think it’s fair that 150 sorties were made last month into Lebanon? Do you think it’s fair that our international waters are, you know, penetrated on ten, 20 times a month? And we have also occupied land, [inaudible – 30:31]. I – for me, as a Government, the 1701 has to be implemented to the letter. We will not accept other than that. The tunnels, the Lebanese Army will deal with this issue, full stop. But to come out blatantly and say that Lebanon is responsible for all of this, I think, you know, Israel has to – has a lot to answer how many intrusion it has made since 1701 has been approved. If you count the amount of complaints and you see the amount of complaints that we have sent to the United Nations, it will be countless. But what has been done with it? Nothing.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

If I can just come in on the back of that, though, Lebanon’s in a, one might say, unique position where, obviously, you have your Lebanese Army, but you also have a highly militarised, what do you want to call it? I don’t know, militia or an army of one of the parties, whatever you want to call it and so, therefore, an outside Government is going to look and work out, well, hold on, am I dealings with a state or am I stealing with a state within a state? I mean, for the criticism you make of Israel, do you see where that viewpoint might come from, as well?

Saad Hariri

Yes, I see that point of view and I said – and I say, look, Israel has launched how many wars on Lebanon? 93, 96, 2000 they withdrew and then 2006 and, you know, in-between some attacks or some assassinations from here and there. But did it weaken Hezbollah? Actually, in 2006, you know, Israel was saying, or Hezbollah was saying, you know, it had 10,000 missiles and Israel always thought, you know, at the time, was like, “Look,” to the world, Hezbollah has 10,000. Today Hezbollah has, not by me, I don’t know how much they have, but they say they have 100,000 missiles, but what did the war in 2006 do to all of this? Did it make Lebanon weaker? Did it make Hezbollah weaker? If you want to resolve this issue, it’s a regional issue.

I always say to people, you know, this is a regional issue, this is not a Lebanese issue. This is an Iranian issue and if we want to deal with the issue, let’s sit down on a table and let’s stop these wars and let’s talk about how we resolve these issues in the region. If we want to make peace with Israel, we have a resolution that came out from the Arab League, but Netanyahu doesn’t want this, you know, and this is what I really believe. I think that Netanyahu wants a little piece of Lebanon, a little piece of Golan, a little piece of Palestine, a little piece of Jordan [applause]. I mean, everybody went to Oslo, the Palestinians, and there was agreements between Governments and this was destroyed.

The Arab League came out with the Peace Process, nothing happened. We want peace, we don’t want war, we – and I don’t think anybody in the region wants war and I, for one, who have suffered from Civil War and wars on my country, yes, I agree on the Arab League, but what does Israel want? Do they know what they want?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

It’s time to bring a diplomatic question in, so I’ve got a Diplomat here.

Euripedes Evrivades

As-salamu alaykum, Mr Prime Minister.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Microphone, it’s right there in front of you.

Euripedes Evrivades

Thank you. As-salamu alaykum, Mr Prime Minster, an honour for me to listen to you, and my name is Euripedes, the High Commissioner of Cyprus. Fascinating the tour de force. It’s the Mediterranean energy issue, I’m wondering if you could care to address it little bit, do you see it as a gamechanger? Do you see it also helping you with investments? What is your feedback from possible companies that you have been dealing with, in order to push the issue forward, which is a cartel for all of us in the region individually, but collectively? Shukraan.

Saad Hariri

You mean for the oil and gas?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Yeah, you mean for the gas discovery, so I presume – yeah, and you submitted, yeah.

Saad Hariri

I think, yes, it is a gamechanger for countries like Lebanon and Cyprus and everyone in the region. I think we are countries who never had natural resources, we’re, you know, getting into this today. It can help our people in Lebanon and in the region, also to move from one level to another level. But, at the same time, we have to be careful on the expectation that we have. I think we should learn from the Norwegian experience where they thought, you know, in the beginning, where, you know, they have oil and gas and they jumped on investment and then they almost got the country bankrupt. And this is – but what they said to us, actually, what saved them is when their oil jumped from, I think, $5 to all the way to the front, because of the crisis that happened in the 70s. But we need to be careful, we need to invest in the right places. I think Lebanon has opened its blocks, you have Total and Eni and Novatek, who came to Lebanon. There is another round of blocks that are going to be put out for bids and this is something that’s completely transparent to Lebanon. And I think today, in this conference, for the first time, we talked to BP and they’re, you know, they’re interested into coming to invest on those blocks and you find more big companies also interested in investing, even American companies that would like to invest in these blocks.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Thank you, and lady there, please. I’m coming to people bit-by-bit, yeah.

Rita Esau

Thank you, and my name is Rita Esau, I’m a Medical Doctor. I very much enjoyed your speech last night at the Lebanese Embassy, where you acknowledged and recognised the contribution that 54% of the Lebanese population, women, have in their communities, however, only six out of 128 Lebanese MPs are women, and that’s less than 5%, and I’m just wondering, how do you see starting to balance Parliamentary gender in the coming years?

Saad Hariri

You know, half of these women are in my block [applause] and, second of all, I’m just going to tell you something that’s funny. You know, when we went to vote for the law, myself and the Speaker of the House and, you know, I don’t want to talk confessionally, but, you know, Nabih, or President Beri is, you know, the Head of the Parliament, who is the Shia and I am the Sunni, you know? And we’re the only blocks that voted for a quota in Parliament, whereas, all the other blocks, Christian blocks, voted against women having a quota. So, this time we’re working very hard on pushing everybody to get a quota in Parliament. But what we did in our Government, just to tell you, that we put a rule that any appointment that’s going to be done, whether it’s in the public institutions or any appointment that the Government will have – will do, it will have a quota of women of 30% and, in some cases, 20%, and some cases, and 40%.

But people in Lebanon underestimate the acceptance of the citizens in voting for a woman, and I think this is the problem with the political parties, not with the people. Just to give you an instance, when we went to – when I did the elections within my party, we had places in our party, like in Akkar, in Danniyeh, which are, you know, thought to be a little bit, you know, tougher on these subjects. And what surprised me is when people voted, they filled the quota in these regions and in Beirut, we’re not able – we were not able to fill it where I had to appoint the quota myself. So, people are really open, we just need to push, you know, the law and make woman – and make people vote for women.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Okay, this gentleman has been waiting patiently here first, yeah, right in the middle, yeah.

Member

Thank you, Prime Minister Hariri, [inaudible – 38:46]. You mentioned Iraq several times today and I’m…

Saad Hariri

Yeah.

Member

You mentioned Iraq a couple of times today and I’m aware that your Foreign Minister was in Baghdad and also, in the Kurdish region, I think, last week, and before the Minister of Lebanon.

Saad Hariri

Yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah.

Member

So, evidently, you have identified some areas of co-operation. What these areas of co-operation and what is the volume of trade between Iraq and Lebanon?

Saad Hariri

We want to, you know, we want to open up our markets to all our Arab friends. I think – and I mentioned Iraq because I’m half Iraqi, also. So, yeah, and I think, you know, Iraq is a big market. I think we can learn from each other a lot. We live almost the same situation that – I mean, or they passed through the same situation that we have. I think there is – in the past, there isn’t – we hadn’t focused on economic growth between the two country. We need to focus on these markets. We need to focus on Morocco. We need to focus on Egypt. We need to focus on all the countries. We need – Lebanon needs to open its market and we need to penetrate other countries’ markets. So, it’s what brings benefit to Lebanon and what brings benefit to Iraq.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Okay, and lady waiting against the wall, you’ve been – you were there first, please, madam, yeah. The microphone’s coming.

Brinley Bruton

Brinley Bruton from NBC News, and my first two-part question. You mentioned Netanyahu. Sorry, you mentioned Netanyahu several times and he said – he threatened something bad would happen. How would you react if that bad thing were to happen? And my second question is, how has your relationship with Saudi Arabia evolved in the last three months or so?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

I wondered when we’d get to the Saudi question.

Saad Hariri

I thought that would be the first question.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Yeah, well, it’s been waiting politely on my list, but I’d rather have it come from the floor to start with, if we can.

Saad Hariri

I’ll drink a sip of water for that.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

You very openly asked, though, and we might dig in a little more, but go on.

Saad Hariri

Look, I think, you know, like you said, you know, if something bad happens, we have to react with the bad thing. I mean, I wish he was promising something good, you know, if it’s going to happen instead of something bad. Maybe he should have said, you know, “Let’s go to peace with Palestinians and solve the problem, instead of going to war.” I think this is, you know, the good thing. But, you know, if Israel decides to go to war to Lebanon, I’ll tell you one thing, that it didn’t do the job in 19 – I mean, they will not succeed. The only way to move forward in this region is by dialogue and peace and I think, you know, in the past, there was a man who wanted peace in Israel, it was Rabin and he was killed. But Netanyahu doesn’t want peace. He talks about it but, you know, he promises bad things that could happen to Lebanon, that’s on one issue.

On the relationship with Saudi Arabia, I was in Saudi Arabia, I think, a month and a half ago, and for the conference, in the midst of what was happening with the issue of Khashoggi, which I condemn, and the Saudi Government condemns and the whole world condemns and everybody, you know, the Saudi Government has also arrested those people and they have done what they should have done. From day one, I think this whole matter was maybe handled poorly, but I think now, it should – it’s taking its course through justice. And my relationship with Saudi Arabia is a good relationship and I believe that the Saudi market is a good market for Lebanon and we need to – you know, we’ve prepared many agreements that we will be signing with Saudi Arabia, as soon as we form the Government, and as soon as we form the Government, you will see Saudi Arabia taking some serious steps towards Lebanon, helping them – helping Lebanon economically, in the CEDRE Conference Saudi Arabia committed $1 billion from the Saudi Development Bank. So, I think, you know, the relationship couldn’t be better.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

And just to follow-up on that question little bit, I mean, do you think that since the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, do you think there’s been a change in the regional dynamic at all? Obviously, the United States, it would seem, from the outside, is applying a bit more pressure for some change in the foreign policy of Saudi Arabia. They’re also bringing pressure to bear on Iran, obviously, at the same time. But do you sense that there’s a change dynamic regionally at all since, you know, in really, the last three to four months, but since that event, since the re-imposition of sanctions on Iran by the US, the JCPOA sanctions that were lifted? And as you see it, ‘cause you were at the frontline and you sensed those vibrations had changed in the region and you, yourself, interact, right, yeah, how you sensed them very closely. So, to what extent do you think, you know, that there is a change? Do you sense a change in the environment?

Saad Hariri

I think, you know, the United States withdrawing from the JCPOA is, you know, an American decision and the sanctions, you can feel them in the region, very bluntly. I mean, Iran is suffering economically. You can see that some exports that we used to get from Iran are stopping these days, and you can see that there is – and Iran has a big challenge to face. But, at the same time, also, you know, and, you know, we’re here today and you talk about Yemen and ending the war in Yemen and this is something good for the region. I think, like I told you, you know, I believe in dialogue and I believe in peace, and I think the way to move forward is by dialogue and peace. But, at the same time, you will have to have two people are willing to sit on the table and talk. You cannot be doing something and then you say you want to go to have a dialogue about this. I think, you know, there is very high tension.

My concern today is, any mistake made on the Hormuz, you know, Strait is detrimental for the region. The tensions are high among all these powers. Lebanon is a very small country but, at the same time, you know, this small country was able to make a little miracle after the seven-year war and we were able to pushback any tension too, that came from Syria. And, surprisingly, you know, other than the Hezbollah fighters that fought from, you know, the Syrian regime, the numbers of extremists that came out from Lebanon, compared to other Arab nations or compared to Europe, even, is very minimal, and it’s about 150, maybe, in the past seven, eight years. So, this is something that we are proud of because we work very hard with our youth to make sure that this is not something that people, or the youth, will go and fight, because they see the extreme atrocities that happened, or the regime did and all these people in Syria.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

As we’re getting close to the end, I’m going to take two questions here first and then I’m going to take a couple there. So, yeah, yours first, you had – no, sorry, well, no choice, ‘cause you had your hand up first, and so you had yours up later. I’ll get to you, yeah and yeah, and there.

Joyce Hakmeh

Joyce Hakmeh, from Chatham House. What is your message for the millions of Lebanese, who left the country looking for a better future, but have now no hopes and can’t see the light at the end of the tunnel, given like the economical, political internal challenges? What’s your message for them, Prime Minister?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

And can we just hold that thought for a second, the lady who’s been waiting very patiently against the wall, there, yeah, and then I’m going to come to the two gentlemen here, you, sir, and Nick, yeah.

Lea Momtaz

Lea Momtaz with ABC News. Prime Minister, you always seem to be between a rock and a hard place, you’re always walking a very tight line. You seem to always have to be comprising, always trying to be the moderate force in the country. Are you condemned, for the rest of your time, as our Prime Minister, to be in this position? And is your constituency condemned to being in this position, while others in the country seemed to be much less willing to compromise?

Saad Hariri

Look, and I’ll start with the answer to you and then we’ll go back. I think, you know, two wrongs don’t make a right, you know, if somebody it’s extremist and in their position, it’s not right for me to be extremist in my position. I think what we need to look is what benefits the country. My political ambitions are there, but I think my political ambitions, without a growing country, without finding jobs for the youth, is not going to be – for me, at least, it’s not a position that I want to be in. I believe saying the truth on how to deal with issues is the only way to move forward. My father was like this. If you compare how my father – I mean, my father had it very hard because today, yes, we’re among Lebanese quarrelling about formation of a Government, but my father had an occupying power, who was telling him what he can do. Today, you know, my father couldn’t employ one – appoint one person, in any position, in any ministry.

Today, it’s not like this. We have come a long way. We need to understand that we – actually, we gained our freedom after the Syrians, you know, left Lebanon and this has been a learning process for us, as Lebanese, because this is the only time we, Lebanese, after the Civil War, after the, you know, after the Syrian left – the Syrian regime left Lebanon, it is the only time that we are really running our country. And I tell you, we didn’t do a good job in 2005, ‘til 2016. Actually, we did exactly the opposite of what should have been done. We should have sat down and talked to each other, regardless of our differences, but, at the time, you know, I used to come from a business community, where I didn’t know anything about politics and sometimes I feel, you know, I should have, you know, done something at the time. But now, I think we know what we’re doing, we know how to move forward, we had a plan, and no, I’m not going to compromise all the time. I will compromise for the sake of the country but, you know, things like this, what’s prolonging to form this Government, it’s because, no, I don’t feel this, what was asked of me, is good for the country. It’s actually bad for the country and now we’re trying to resolve this issue.

On the message for the Lebanese, look, Lebanon is pretty divided inside Lebanon, you know, politically and my call for the diaspora is forget who’s in power, forget who is Saad Hariri, forget who’s the President, forget who is the Speaker, the diaspora is the real power and for Lebanon. If they want to be united, if they want to help Lebanon, they all should help Lebanon, regardless if Saad Hariri or X, Y, Z is the Prime Minister, we should focus on how we could help. And I think we should learn from others, you know, other nations, they focus on how they could help their country, regardless who is in politics. And to give you a small example that happened with me, in 1998, my father was in a political manoeuvre, was kicked out of power, so Salim el-Hoss, Prime Minister Salim el-Hoss was going to Saudi Arabia and, at the time I was, I think, how old was I? 28, 27. My natural reaction, I said, “Oh, he’s coming to Saudi Arabia, I need to make sure that he has a bad visit in Saudi Arabia,” because he was against my father.

When I went to tell my father this, you know, I said, you know, “I have news, this guy is coming to Saudi Arabia,” I said, “and I’m looking how to undermine their visit.” He said, “No, no, no, you should work for it to make it successful. We should all help Salim el-Hoss to be a good Prime Minister.” And this is what we all need to do in the diaspora outside, instead of looking to the Aouns, to the Mustaqbal, to Amal, to all of this, we should all work what is beneficial for Lebanon, and that’s my call for the diaspora and I think Lebanon, today, is doing the right thing. We had a plan; CEDRE is there, reforms are thee and we will implement all of them, and if we don’t implement, punish us with your voting. Vote for somebody else. If we don’t do a good job, make your vote count.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Now, we’re very close to the end [applause]. We’re very close to the end and yet, I have numerous people who I won’t get…

Saad Hariri

We can extend.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

We can extend a little bit, but I suspect that what I do here will still mean we’ll extend a little bit. I’m going to take the last four, okay? And I’ll keep track as well of them, then you can answer them at the pace that you will. Gentleman’s been waiting very patiently here at the front row, yeah.

Tarek Abi Samra

And my name Tarek Abi Samra, sorry, I have a sore throat, from London Citizens and from Jounieh [inaudible – 52:36] in Lebanon and a Member of Chatham House since ages. The first question to the Prime Minister.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

One question.

Tarek Abi Samra

One question.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

One really good question.

Tarek Abi Samra

It is a good – it is one first question and last, both A and B.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

This is why Lebanon’s so successful.

Tarek Abi Samra

After the…

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Okay, quick.

Tarek Abi Samra

After the – I will be very, very quick. I am always quick. After the harmonious meeting at the Presidential Palace on Monday between the Prime Minister, Speaker and the President and after, and most importantly, the impressive speech of Prime Minister today, do you believe that we are going to have immediately and soon a Government? And are we going to have any clashes in the South? And are we going to solve the problem between us and Syria? And last word to you, Chairman, to you, Lebanon is a lucrative, solid country and investments still going and on the 20^th of December, under the patronage of Prime Minister Saad Hariri, he will open one of the biggest hotel in town of Beirut. God save Lebanon and the Queen.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Thank you. Can you pass microphone back a couple of rows, please? Thank you. Luckily, you’d answered couple of those questions already, but…

Saad Hariri

Question…

Nick Westcott

Nick Westcott from…

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Let you go, and he’ll answer it quickly. Yeah, just hold on one second. Hold the microphone, Nick. Yeah, hold it.

Saad Hariri

On the Government, and Inshallah will have a Government, like I said before, the end of the year. I think, you know, I don’t think we will have clashes in the South. I don’t think anybody wants war in Israel and anybody wants war in Lebanon. We know, from our contacts with everyone in Lebanon and this is the message that we delivered to the Americans, to everyone, that this is what we – we don’t want any clashes. And so, I don’t believe there will be a war and, yes, like you said, Lebanon is a good place to invest, I agree with you, and so anybody who wants to come and invest in Lebanon, we’re open to business.

Member

Thank you.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Nick.

Nick Westcott

Nick Westcott, SOAS, formerly with the EU. In Syria, Prime Minster, what do you see is the prospects for peace? And how would Lebanon cope with the return of the Hezbollah militia? Unless you want them to stay there.

Saad Hariri

I think a lot of them have come back. We believe that, you know, Hezbollah had a big force in Syria. I think it was about up to 15,000, now they diminished. And this is what they’re saying, themselves, I think you have 2 to 3,000 also, this is the intelligence that we have from, you know, the West, also. I think, what was the other question?

Nick Westcott

Prospect for peace.

Saad Hariri

Oh, prospect for peace? I mean, our relationship with Syria, I think Syria’s position is like, or the regime’s position today, is like Saddam Hussein position after the first Gulf War, you know, where he was moved out from Kuwait and Iraq became under the United Nation, today it’s under Russian, and you have the Americans, the Iranians, the Turks and God knows who, and you have the Golan Heights, Israel. So, I think his position will be very weak. He has to listen to the Russians, he has to listen, and unless you have a new constitution in Syria, like everybody promises, and right representation of the people in Syria, it will still be ambiguous. There will still be, you know, about 700,000 people who are killed and there is a huge reconciliation that needs to be done in Syria. Is it going to happen? Is Assad ready to reconcile without vengeance? And this is the big question mark and I think I don’t have the answer for that.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Gentleman here.

Member

Mr Prime Minister, you have presented a pride vision for the future of Lebanon, but it seems irrelevant to the reality, which is, I mean, given the fact of the corruption and the infrastructure, such as what happened in the last two weeks, I believe, when Beirut sank down in the drain water. Secondly, do you think this, I mean, the infrastructure, is ready to attract the foreign investors to Lebanon? And do you think is it the right – and the Lebanese people has the right to know what has happened to you and when you have been enforced to resign in Saudi Arabia?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

That’s the last questions. While you think about that, let me take the very last one, it was the lady…

Saad Hariri

No, I can answer.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Oh, go now, yeah, exactly.

Saad Hariri

No, I think, you know, the corruption issue is a real serious issue in Lebanon. We – that’s why we made sure, when we went to the CEDRE Conference, to have the committee that, on all these projects, the countries that will donate or will give the credit for Lebanon, will be on each project. We want to make sure that the process of the bids are extremely transparent. The World Bank is going to be working with us very closely on each of those bids. I understand, you know, the issue of corruption is extremely bad for Lebanon. I think also moving, we started our workshops on moving to a Government that will also clear a lot of, you know, the corruption that we have in the country. What happened two weeks ago, in Beirut, is a disgrace to Beirut and to us and we have moved, you know, the Prosecutor has moved on this issue. They stopped, already, three people and we’re going to get to them and if anybody needs to be punished on this, and no matter who he is, we have – you know, he should go to prison. This is something that is now totally unacceptable.

But we need to work, you know, together. My concern is, you know, and I really want to work with the, you know, the civil society much more because I think they have a lot of good ideas, but we need to listen to each other. We need to stop talking at each other and we need to sit on the table and give each other advice and move ahead on these agendas. ‘Cause if you look at what has been happening, it’s been screaming and we’re screaming and nobody’s doing anything. I think we should sit on the table, and we have started, and when we went to CEDRE, we made sure two of the biggest civil society association came with us to CEDRE. We want them to be a part of the process and we want to make sure that everything that we do is extremely transparent. And when I was in Saudi Arabia, I’ve answered this many times, you know, there had to be a wake-up call to the Lebanese because we were, you know, shooting ourselves in the foot. People needed to understand that this is something that we cannot continue doing. We cannot tell the Gulf to come to Lebanon and, at the same time, there are political parties cursing the hell out of the Gulf. We cannot – I myself, should not make statements about Iran, you know, and, at the same time, expect Iran not to answer. We need to disassociate ourselves. We need to move away from the regional, you know, conflicts. Lebanon is too small to pay a price in these big conflicts. The big countries can afford it. We cannot, simple.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Okay, so last question, and there’s so many hands up, I apologise to everyone else. This lady had her hand up literally about half an hour ago, yes, you. The microphone’s coming, I think. Yeah, right there. So, this will be the last question.

Member

Okay.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

And I need people to stay in their seats afterwards, please, yeah.

India Hannah

Hi, I’m India Hannah from SRM, yeah. My question, so this idea of future growth is very related to big investments, big companies, big firms, and my question is more related to the youth in Lebanon, what can you expect from them? What can they do? I know a lot of them are watching this, who are interested, and so, the youth in Lebanon, what is expected of them? What’s their role in all of this future growth? Thanks.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

I apologise ‘cause a lot of young people who had their hands up as well, you’ve asked the question for them, hopefully, so over to you.

Saad Hariri

But I think, you know, our – you know, and what we’re trying to do, we have a lot of start-ups in Lebanon and it’s all by the youth and our job, today, we made a lot of laws that will ease up on them, on the pay – on that – one the VAT, on bringing, you know, whatever they want into the country, without paying the customs. We also – we have the problem with the bankruptcy law, because a lot of those start-ups, you know, in order, in Lebanon, to go bankrupt today, a company, you need three to four years. We’re trying to diminish this to six months to a year. This is some – this is a law already in Parliament. We’re giving them incentives where we – you know, you have the Central Bank, with the 330 decision to give loans to, or soft loans, to these companies. And, you know, we’re working a lot with a lot of associations, like Life and Ideas and all of these associations that are full of youth, and we ask them to give us, you know, their ideas or give us the advice of what we need to do. And we have done, you know, several meetings and I think they have done – given us several ideas and we have implemented them. So, anything that you think, also, you know, I don’t have a magic wand, I don’t have all the answers for everything. What I need is this, you know, coming and going between us and the youth, is to understand what the other things that we need to do, also.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Prime Minister, let me just say, first of all, if you could all please stay in your seats, but you can see how we’ve had a huge turnout and a huge turnout that’s stayed well beyond the time we’d allotted for this meeting. And you made the big mistake of only giving a ten-minute speech, which meant you’ve had to answer questions for, pretty much, an hour.

Saad Hariri

Next time I’ll make it two minutes.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

A two-minute speech, exactly. But thank you very much for giving such a strong shout-out for the potential of Lebanon, for what you believe it can achieve, you and your other colleagues, in Government. I think we’ve heard a lot of comments about infrastructure, the need for a functional Government to, at least, allow citizens to do all they can do around Government. And we heard your remarks about how you’re trying to do as much as possible, even with the current caretaker environment, to make sure that’s possible. I think for those who, like me, do not know Lebanon well, we will have come away that much more impressed by the great efforts you’re making to try to make this a success.

Saad Hariri

Have you been to Lebanon?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Sorry?

Saad Hariri

Have you been to Lebanon?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

I have not been to Lebanon. Said on the record, okay [jeering]? I know, I know, and I keep these invitations, a very good conference. I’ve said it publicly.

Saad Hariri

One thing I want to say, and every time I meet somebody…

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

My colleagues are there all the time, but never mind, yeah.

Saad Hariri

You know, every time I meet an official anywhere in the world, they have friends from Lebanon, anywhere, or they have some people who work in their offices from Lebanon, and this is something we should be proud of.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Exactly.

Saad Hariri

And this is the, kind of, diaspora, that we need for them to work with us as Government or as – for Lebanon. This is something – you know, I say that the Lebanese, you know, wherever they go, they will thrive because they’re entrepreneurs. They have – you know, they want to work, they want to achieve. Our problem is, how do we make all this energy, you know, focus in the country? And I believe that the only way is, at the time, when my father did it, is great stability, security, create the right environment for an investment and leave the Lebanese do the job. Problem is, Politicians have been – haven’t been getting the Lebanese do their job. We need to move away, as a Government, and do all the legislations that our people want and then, I think Lebanon will thrive.

Dr Robin Niblett

If you could please stay in your seats, but also give a big – very big, hand to Saad Hariri [applause].