Orysia Lutsevych
Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Chatham House. My name is Orysia Lutsevych, and I’m the Head of Ukraine Forum. This is the first hybrid event at Chatham House, since the COVID lockdown, and we have audiences joining us both inside Chatham House in St James’s Square, but also via Zoom platform. We have over 180 participants joining us digitally. And for me, as Ukrainian for a change, the word ‘hybrid’ has a positive news because my country, Ukraine, has been a target of hybrid war for almost seven years, and it has been difficult for millions of Ukrainians.
So, a couple of housekeeping rules. This event is on the record. We will be sharing and releasing the video after this conversation. And those who are watching us online will be able to send questions, and I – I’m not doing my Facebook here on my laptop. I will be taking those questions, so please apologies to the speaker and the audience if I will be staring in the laptop for some time. And if you are watching us here and with us, thank you so much for in a way taking some risk to come and discuss Ukraine with us. Please do raise your hands. Take off your mask. Join us in the conversation, and there will be a microphone to you. But stay seated, please, when you ask the question.
Our speaker will speak some English, but mostly in Ukrainian for the speed and comfort of the conversation. So you have the interpretation devices with you, and there are instructions for the channels in English and in Ukrainian on your screens. On the Zoom function, you should use English channel, for of course English, ad Korean, unfortunately, Zoom still doesn’t have Ukrainian language for a Ukrainian if you would like to have it.
So, our topic today is peaceful and prosperous Ukraine, what it takes to get there, finally. And Mr Andriy Yermak, who is the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, is here with us today. He is part of the official visit of Ukrainian President Zelensky here to the United Kingdom. He will give us a bit of an update on that. But he is not new to Chatham House. I’m pleased to say this is his second time. He was here in December of last year when we had the conference on Ukraine’s great expectations.
He’s joined Zelensky’s administration from the very beginning of his tenure as a President, and it’s been now a year and a half, when you think about it, the time that perhaps a little, perhaps too much, you tell us. But he started as an Advisor, but then was promoted, after the speech in Chatham House, I must say, to be the Head of his Office. So, let’s see where he ends up next after today’s conversation. But he’s not a simple manager of President’s Office. Mr Yermak is involved in negotiations on peace talks with Russia, part of the Normandy Format. He’s intimately driving the strategy about how to finally reach a ceasefire, and to return Ukraine to its full territorial integrity, and establish sovereignty over parts of Donbas and Crimea. In the past, he was a Lawyer but also a Film Producer. He’s co-produced around four films, I think, if I’m not mistaken, and, you know, it’s a special…
Andriy Yermak
It was in the past life.
Orysia Lutsevych
It was in the past life. But, you know, in a way, this was the life when you were creating your own realities for film. Now you have to face it in your job as the Head of the Office. But, as I was preparing for this event and, you know, Chatham House is celebrating its centenary, 100 years of establishing, and 100 years ago in Ukraine was a war raging for this territory, a war for independence when you had the armies of Bolsheviks, the Whites, the Germans, the French, the Ukrainian Independence Army, all trying to safeguard Ukraine’s independence. At that time, it did work, and Ukraine was in a way partitioned between these Bolsheviks, Soviet Republic, the Poland, Czechoslovakia, at that time, Romania. And, you know, Ukraine, since then, returned to its territory. But if you think about what’s happening right now today, there is still struggle, struggle for peace, and struggle for prosperity.
So, without further ado, I want to bring in Andriy to our conversation and, you know, of course we’ll start with the purpose of his visit to London, together with President Zelensky, to sign the Strategic Agreement between Ukraine and the United Kingdom. It’s the first agreement post-Brexit, with the emerging market. The UK signed an agreement with Japan previously. But I wanted to ask for you and for Ukraine for the – specifically, what makes this agreement so significant, I think it is, for the bilateral relations, and what brings it to a new level, Andriy, the floor is yours, join us in conversation?
Andriy Yermak
Good evening for everybody, and thank you, Orysia. Greetings to everyone present here today, as well to the people who is join the fast for the Zoom. Separately, I would like to greet the media representatives. I’m delighted to attend such influent think tank who’s expert and respected not only in the United Kingdom but around the world. Years ago, really, I had the honour to speak here, and it’s my great pleasure to be here again.
A lot of – has changed during this year, and I would like and have very happy to have this opportunity to tell you about the current development. I hope that it will have frank and meanwhile to meaningful conversation. I’m. once again. grateful for you to this opportunity, and it’s a great honour to me to answer to all the questions which you have, and to share how the team of the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, implements its idea, and how we’re moving towards turning Ukraine in prosperous, successful democratic states, and bringing peace to our lands, what is a very, very important for us and for all our people, of course, in our terms. And thank you for your first questions.
[Mother tongue – 08:04-16:50].
Orysia Lutsevych
Andriy, I’m sorry if I stop you here because, you know, time’s running. We have a lot of other questions. You can come back if something critical is missing. If you need interpretation, by the way, from questions, do you have the sets for you?
Andriy Yermak
Yeah, if I not understand, and yeah.
Orysia Lutsevych
Yeah, okay, so I think it’s great that you pointed to these win-win situations, a win-win spirit of the agreement because, you know, you come from the region where a zero-sum game especially with Russia, vis-à-vis its neighbours is the more modus operandi, and that’s why Ukraine so much wants to integrate with the Euro-Atlantic structures, with the European Union, and then you personally are now involved for, you know, almost a year and a half, negotiating with Kremlin to ensure there is peace in Ukraine. And, you know, frankly speaking, you’ve had some successes with prisoners released, with ceasefire that was holding very fragile, but it was one of the longest periods of ceasefire. But, you know, overall, we have a feeling, when observing this from the outside of course, that Putin doesn’t really want peace. That in a way, you know, he’s trying to wreck Ukraine, to subjugate it, and to re-establish its control. So, my question is then, in a way, what should be Ukraine’s strategy, under the circumstance, when we do see such an aggressive neighbour that doesn’t want peace?
Andriy Yermak
[Mother tongue – 18:21-34:20].
Orysia Lutsevych
Thank you for explaining your effort, and I think there will be questions maybe on the turns and other things. But I would like to move now to the audience. I don’t want to monopolise all the attention I have here, especially because we have guests coming here. So I would like immediately start opening for questions from the audience, and I have some of them pouring here through Zoom, so I will be perhaps grouping. So if you just raise your hands, I’ll take two questions from the room, then we’ll come back to you for answers. Please stay here, Tim. If you just stay seated, please, yeah.
Tim Ash
Yeah.
Orysia Lutsevych
Like that.
Tim Ash
Mr Yermak, thank you very much for coming, and, you know, welcome to…
Orysia Lutsevych
Please introduce yourself.
Tim Ash
Sorry, my name’s Tim Ash from BlueBay Asset Management in London. We invest in Ukraine. We’ve bought into the story, in the last five years, the turnaround in the story. It’s a pretty simple question, from my perspective as an investor in Ukraine. I don’t understand really what you’re trying to achieve at the National Bank of Ukraine. The National Bank of Ukraine, from an investor perspective, is the number one reform institution in Ukraine. The transformation, at the National Bank of Ukraine in the last five years, has been remarkable, from a really non-functioning institution five years ago that was a risk to the system, to a situation six months ago where this institution was international class, international standard. And I think it’s a reflection of the hard work and effort of, you know, the staff of the National Bank of Ukraine, Governor Gontareva, Governor Smolii, the Deputy Governors, all the staff that actually put their lives on the line, in many instances, in doing what they did.
Orysia Lutsevych
Could you just shorten it because there are many people?
Tim Ash
Sure.
Orysia Lutsevych
Just a question.
Tim Ash
Sure, but I guess the question is, you know, you’ve changed the Governor, you’ve changed three Deputy Governors, two – the two remaining Deputy Governors are under attack from the National Bank Council, and seemingly by the Governor. Why would you want to change an institution that is the most successful institution? Why would you mess with something that is working? And, you know, you say you believe in the independence of the Central Bank. Well, changing four of the six Deputy Governors, and looking to remove…
Orysia Lutsevych
Yeah.
Tim Ash
…and looking to remove another two Deputy Governors doesn’t suggest you really believe in the independence of the Central Bank. How can you assure people like me, the National Bank of Ukraine is safe?
Orysia Lutsevych
Thanks, Tim, and last time you were just an Advisor on foreign policy, so you understand now you have to also answer questions…
Andriy Yermak
Yeah.
Orysia Lutsevych
…on domestic policy. But before you answer the question on the National Bank, I’ll go, yes, here, please. Take off your, yeah, mask.
Member
Yeah, Mr Yermak, thank you very much for that overview you’ve given us. I just wondered, coming back to the conflict situation, and really the context of your visit today to London, whether, in your view, you consider that the UK has any particular role additionally it could play vis-à-vis the occupied territories? And I ask that sitting in a country that’s not in the Normandy Format, and soon, is out of the European Union. I suppose it’s a hypothetical question, really. But do you consider that the UK should be trying to be in the Normandy Format?
Orysia Lutsevych
Okay, great. So you may start with the conflict to tie up with what you were saying…
Andriy Yermak
Okay.
Orysia Lutsevych
…and then go to…
Andriy Yermak
Okay.
Orysia Lutsevych
…domestic reform, and then do…
Andriy Yermak
[Mother tongue – 37:57-44:23].
Orysia Lutsevych
Okay and I’ll take a question, yes, here, please. And then I’ll see if I can combine some of them, depending on the subject, with questions coming on Zoom.
Olesya Khromeychuk
Olesya Khromeychuk, I’m the Director of the Ukrainian Institute, London. I’m going to ask you something that you’ve already touched upon, but I’m hoping for a more concrete answer, if possible. So, especially in the context of what you said that every life of every Ukrainian is a priority for the State. So, in the prisoner exchange situation, some of the individuals who were returned to Ukraine had actually been arrested on the occupied territories, and were sentenced on criminal charges, not political changes. And yet, at the same time, we have the situation where people who have been arrested because of the position of pro-Ukrainian position, defending Ukrainian statehood, are being held in places like Izolyatsia, essentially a concentration camp in Donetsk, who never make it to the actual lists. What is the State doing to ensure that each and every person, and not just those who are already in public eye, who are already advertised by the media essentially, but each and every person, ordinary people who are just grabbed on the street essentially and put in these inhumane conditions, make it to the list? Because this is for them a question of life and death.
Orysia Lutsevych
Thank you very much. Can we please take one more question here, and then we’ll come back to you? No, over there, a gentleman, yeah [pause]. Go ahead, yes?
Ben Hall
Oh, hello.
Orysia Lutsevych
[Laughs].
Ben Hall
Ben Hall from the Financial Times. Actually, if I may, one and a half questions ‘cause I wanted to follow up on Tim’s.
Orysia Lutsevych
Well, make them snappy.
Ben Hall
Governor Smolii resigned because the President didn’t stand by the bank, through months and months of intimidation. You have lost the confidence of the investor – international investor community. What can you do to restore it? Second question is actually on foreign policy. The turmoil in Russia’s backyard, Krygyzstan, Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, all very different. But to what extent do you think it is a threat to Ukraine or an opportunity, given that it’s obviously a distraction for Mr Putin and a sign that his backyard is vulnerable and not secure?
Orysia Lutsevych
Thank you very much, and maybe we’ll start with the prisoners’ question because there is something that ties in nicely actually to your regional security question.
Andriy Yermak
[Mother tongue – 46:53-51:45].
Orysia Lutsevych
Andriy, before you go into it, I just want to tie in because there was a question from Zoom that is also linked to regional security that Ben asked.
Andriy Yermak
Okay.
Orysia Lutsevych
So, one was on investor confidence, perception matter, you know it. It’s not just what you do, but also how this is perceived in the West and, you know, how do you planning to restore the investor confidence, and the – of course, Ukraine’s neighbourhood, especially with Belarus, it’s in turmoil, right? I mean, we – the – Russia is, in a way, trying to tighten the circle, you may argue. And here, I have also a question too from Maria Shargenov from Zoom, who is specifically saying “Ukraine has lately revamped its sanctions policy, and pledging to enhance its co-ordination with international partners, so that the sanctions align what EU and US is doing on this front. The UK has recently imposed sanctions for Belarussian officials. Is Ukraine planning to follow the UK and EU’s suit, and how will he navigate regional geopolitical situations?” So, investors and Belarus.
Andriy Yermak
[Mother tongue – 52:57-59:22].
Orysia Lutsevych
Listen, this is a very strong message and appeal to Ukraine’s allies and specially for the collective security, and I believe the – this is something that Ukrainian citizen intimately feel the lack of security, the threat, something that when reforms are moving forward, even on the anti-corruption front, the lack of security threatens, makes it more difficult to push complex reform, when suddenly, you know, your whole society norms, maybe they are not perfect, maybe they are not so good, unravels. So, I share with you the kind of appeal to think about how the security can be extended to countries like Ukraine, like Moldova, eventually like Belarus, but perhaps this is my opinion. Andriy didn’t say that.
But, if I may, because where London is the global financial centre doing so far so good, and then asks you, you were in business before starting being in government. But perhaps you can give just a few remarks about how do you think Ukraine can become attractive for investors? Because Ukraine needs technology, like you said. Ukraine needs capital and this is something in London, it’s here. There are plenty of, you know, investors who are looking at emerging markets. What is it that’s missing? Why are they not pouring funds into Ukraine?
Andriy Yermak
[Mother tongue – 60:38-62:08].
Orysia Lutsevych
Right.
Andriy Yermak
[Mother tongue – 62:09].
Orysia Lutsevych
Tweet, tweet, tweet, tweet style.
Andriy Yermak
[Mother tongue – 62:14-67:59].
Orysia Lutsevych
Excellent. I think it’s very good that you pledge to communicate both internationally and also in Ukraine because I think, frankly speaking, this is something that Ukrainian society widely needs is to understand its threats, but also to understand its strengths. And I think this is where this resilience you were talking about will come from, and this is where, you know, the strengths under the feet of this nation that is, like you said, a frontline state that feels the breadth of insecurity from Russia, but also, internally, from shedding the Soviet legacy that you described in business that is so difficult, that is so difficult that it’s hard to find a country of the magnitude and size of Ukraine that went through reform.
That is why we have Ukraine Forum here in Chatham House, ladies and gentlemen, which where we follow these domestic changes. We will be having event on resilience with Anton Herashchenko next few weeks. We are looking at local elections, the result of local elections. We will be looking at judicial reform, and I would like to thank you for continuing bringing your vision here in Chatham House. We hope other officials like you will also engage with us from the team, and that’s why I think it’s so important of our event today. I would to ask you to clap and you would like to just a word?
Member
Yeah.
Andriy Yermak
But, please, yeah.
Orysia Lutsevych
No, no, we were not opening for questions because we are running well beyond time, so just one minute, please.
Andriy Yermak
[Mother tongue – 69:33-72:08].
Orysia Lutsevych
Thank you. Would you please join in the appreciation of our speaker today? [Applause] And I would like to – and I would like just to thank the voice of Andriy Yermak’s into English today [inaudible – 72:20] who was joining us actually from Kiev, to interpret his remarks. Thank you very much for coming. Thank you so much [applause].
Member
Thank you very much.
Orysia Lutsevych
Could you please remain seated, and then you will be escorted outside. So, thank you so much.
