Bronwen Maddox
We have a great clicking of cameras, even the silent kind, but I’m waiting for the lights to go down. Thank you. A very warm welcome to Chatham House, everyone. I’m Bronwen Maddox, I’m the Director, and an extremely warm welcome to Dr Jaishankar, External Affairs Minister of India, who’s going to talk to us about India’s rise and role in the world. And he needs – I say this sometimes about our guests, but I will say, but who needs no introduction, but let me just add a few things to the things that you will know about him.
One of the, I’m going to say longest standing Foreign Ministers around, you’ve survived longer than many since 2019, and is also a member of the Upper House of India’s Parliament, from Gujarat. Was Foreign Secretary from 2015 to 18, Ambassador to the US, to China, Singapore and the Czech Republic, and has also served in other diplomatic assignments in Moscow, Colombo, Budapest and Tokyo. And I say that because people who have a span of the world are particularly valuable these days, and we’re very, very glad that you have come here to talk about a wide range of things.
So, I was saying to you upstairs, want to start with geopolitics and then go onto some things about the British–Indian relationship, and then come to some questions about India at the end. Please, everyone, do start thinking of your questions. We’re going to chat for about half an hour, and we have a clean hour here. It is, just to make the point, on the record, being recorded and livestreamed, and if you want to ask a question and you’re in the hall, please do the conventional thing of sticking up your hand and I will do my very best to come to you. If you’re online, welcome again, and if you send in your questions using the Q&A box, I will do my best to pick out them, as well. So, with that, welcome.
Dr S. Jaishankar
Thank you.
Bronwen Maddox
Let’s start with what we can call ‘geopolitics’, but that one word is standing for rather a lot these days. What do you make of the first 41 days of the US’ new foreign policy? Is it good for India? Is it good for the world?
Dr S. Jaishankar
Well, it’s interesting, and I think – and some of it, I must say, in all honesty, is not surprising, if you actually tracked it and assumed that, most of the time, you know, political leaders, at least, do much of what they promised to do. They do not always succeed or they do not always get everything they want, but as a general principle, when people – you know, when political forces, or political leaders, have an agenda, and particularly if it is one which they have developed over a fairly long period of time and have been very articulate, even passionate about it, then I think much of what we have seen and heard over the last few weeks was to be expected. So, I am a little surprised that people are surprised.
Now, that said, is it good for India? In many ways, I would say yes. We – my Prime Minister was in Washington about two weeks ago, I had accompanied him. I was myself there for the Presidential inauguration, and when I look at our interests and our expectations of the relationship, I think there’s a lot of promise we see there. Conceptually, I think we see a President and an administration which, in our parlance, is moving towards multipolarity, and that is something which suits India. When we…
Bronwen Maddox
When you say they are “moving towards multipolarity,” do you mean accepting, or even encouraging there being many, many poles of power in the world?
Dr S. Jaishankar
I think practising, and by practising, promoting. That to – you know, since 1945, one tends to think and talk about the United States as “US and the Western world,” and so it’s more like a bloc, rather than a nation.
Bronwen Maddox
Hmmm.
Dr S. Jaishankar
I think what is quite clear is the US’ own self-perception is now more as a nation and perhaps a little less as a bloc. Not entirely, you know, one and not the other, but definitely there’s a – the needle has moved in the direction of a more national personality and a more national analysis of its self-interests. If one looks, you know, at our own relationship, politically, to be very honest with you, we’ve been – we’ve never had any issues with American Presidents, at least in recent times. There’s no baggage which we carry…
Bronwen Maddox
No.
Dr S. Jaishankar
…or burden that the relationship carries. I think from President Trump’s perspective, the one big shared enterprise that we have is the Quad, and the Quad is an understanding where everybody pays their fair share, so there’s no spat about, you know, who’s paying for whom. There are no free riders in Quad. So, that’s a good model for – which works, which was restarted during President Trump’s first term.
Bronwen Maddox
Hmmm hmm.
Dr S. Jaishankar
And if I were to look at some of the big priorities of this President, many of them actually work for us. He seems to be, for example, committed to keeping energy prices reasonably affordable and stable. we welcome that. He is putting a lot of emphasis on tech, on the development of tech, on the use of tech as a game changer in global politics. I think that offers a lot of possibilities, you know, for us. He appears open to connectivity initiatives of a certain collaborative nature. We have deep interest in that.
Bronwen Maddox
Hmmm hmm.
Dr S. Jaishankar
So, I would say – and of course, he has a certain view of trade, as you may have noticed.
Bronwen Maddox
I was sitting here thinking, we’ve got this far without mentioning trade or indeed tariffs, and I was wondering…
Dr S. Jaishankar
I…
Bronwen Maddox
…where you thought India would come out…
Dr S. Jaishankar
Yeah…
Bronwen Maddox
…of this…
Dr S. Jaishankar
…I was…
Bronwen Maddox
…great tariffs exercise?
Dr S. Jaishankar
I was coming there, bit-by-bit.
Bronwen Maddox
Good, good.
Dr S. Jaishankar
And…
Bronwen Maddox
I’m just making sure we get there.
Dr S. Jaishankar
…I mean, we had a, you know, we had a very open conversation about it, and the result of that conversation was that we agreed on the need for a bilateral trade agreement, and our Trade Minister, in fact, is there in Washington doing exactly that right now.
Bronwen Maddox
I was thinking as you were talking, the piece in the Financial Times by Martin Wolf this week, saying, “The West is over.” Do you think that’s right?
Dr S. Jaishankar
I wouldn’t put it so sharply, but I would say, today, there are clearly – I mean, there are – American interests are more sharply defined, and I suspect so are European interests. I’m not sure where exactly Britain is, probably non-aligned between the two, but it’s very clear…
Bronwen Maddox
It is possible…
Dr S. Jaishankar
Yeah.
Bronwen Maddox
…that it has not yet…
Dr S. Jaishankar
Yeah.
Bronwen Maddox
…sharply defined its interest, but…
Dr S. Jaishankar
Yes, yes.
Bronwen Maddox
…we might come onto Britain in a moment. But just staying with this picture, I would love to hear more about where India is going to position itself. Multipolarity, as you said, there is China. We still don’t know exactly what the US might…
Dr S. Jaishankar
Hmmm hmm.
Bronwen Maddox
…choose to do with China.
Dr S. Jaishankar
Hmmm hmm.
Bronwen Maddox
It’s clearly bringing Russia a bit more in from the cold. Where is India going to put itself in this position…
Dr S. Jaishankar
Vis-à-vis…
Bronwen Maddox
…this picture?
Dr S. Jaishankar
…the US, or vis-à-vis, you know…?
Bronwen Maddox
US and China, yes, all this is shifting.
Dr S. Jaishankar
Look, you know, our endeavour, at least for the last decade, has been to try to see if we can actually develop the – all the big relationships, in a way, and the non-big relationships, as well, in parallel. We understand that each one of them is different, sometimes the issues are different, and I mean, I’m not saying that it means being equidistant or behaving the same with everyone. I think in each case it has to be customised, it has to be assessed, and then you look at, you know, what’s – what are the advantages and what are the challenges and what are the benefits and what are the risks? And you arrive at a certain position or equilibrium. And if we can do that successfully with all the major powers and groupings, that actually puts you in a much better position, in a world which is – which we could see was heading towards multipolarity.
Bronwen Maddox
Hmmm hmm.
Dr S. Jaishankar
So, it’s – I mean, think of it really as innocence from what used to be said was a very bipolar world, which wasn’t entirely true, and then a unipolar, which also wasn’t entirely true. But today, if you have many more centres of decision-making, many more sources of influence, many more discussions with multiple players to really address any solution, or any situation, I think that’s the kinder world. And I think the country which has the maximum flexibility and the least problems is obviously better off in that world, and that’s our endeavour.
Bronwen Maddox
It’s a really interesting point. I remember you saying on the platform at the Munich Security Conference, not this year, the big JD Vance year, but last year, you were on the platform with Antony Blinken…
Dr S. Jaishankar
Hmmm hmm.
Bronwen Maddox
…which seems a long time ago. And you were saying, “Well, look, we’re going to trade with Russia, some extent, oil and some military support, and we’ll trade with you,” and he looked – he – meaning the US, and he looked startled at that. But that is the, kind of, flexibility you’re talking about.
Dr S. Jaishankar
No, I don’t think…
Bronwen Maddox
No?
Dr S. Jaishankar
…to be fair to him, I don’t think he was startled. I mean, by that time we’d been doing it for some time.
Bronwen Maddox
Yes…
Dr S. Jaishankar
And…
Bronwen Maddox
And not…
Dr S. Jaishankar
…and, you know…
Bronwen Maddox
Maybe not surprised, but still – I’m going to stick with startled for the directness of your position.
Dr S. Jaishankar
You know, look, we have always been very honest about it. We’ve been honest about it and I must say, even in 2022, we had discussed it at some length with the American administration, and I say this to their credit, they were also quite understanding about it. Because, you know, one issue which has been, in a sense, distorted, the whole energy trade. The fact is that after 2022, you did not want the Ukraine conflict to trigger a global energy crisis. You – we did not want to see global inflation, and which meant that somebody had to buy Russian oil, if the oil markets had to be kept at a decent – at a, you know, reasonable price.
So, I think there was an understanding about the need for that, and in fact, I remind people, you know, that was one of the reasons why there was a very conscious decision not to, you know, mix that trade with sanctions.
Bronwen Maddox
Hmmm hmm.
Dr S. Jaishankar
So, I think people have been very sober and very, I would say, sensible, about insulating the global economy from that particular aspect. So, we’ve been very, you know, honest about it, because I would rather tell our partners and the rest of the world upfront what we are doing. I see no reason why we should be, you know, less than direct in any way.
Bronwen Maddox
What about the BRICS? What would India like the BRICS to be, economic grouping, or ideological one? What’s the value of it going to be?
Dr S. Jaishankar
You know, look, it’s hard to put a label on it, and we all like putting labels. I mean, that’s what we do for a profession. I mean, that’s why you have – you do what you do, and I do what I do. But some things are not so easily defined, and I’ll – and BRICS is one, for this reason. I can’t say that it’s – you know, I couldn’t put an ideological label on it, in the sense if you look at the BRICS members, even the original members, we are a very diverse group. We are an exception to the normal rules on which groups are formed. I mean, normally countries who approximate geographically to each other, or have some particular shared history, or some, kind of, ethnic or linguistic commonality, this is normally the basis to create a group.
Now, BRICS defies all those assumptions. So it’s not like the Commonwealth, it’s not like the NATO, it’s not like the G7. It’s not like anything which had been conceptualised earlier. What it had – I mean, if I were to really look at what brought BRICS countries together, it was a sense among very major powers that they were not getting their due place or due share of global conversations and decision-making, and they would be better off if they came together and then, shall I say, sent a collective message.
So, that is how BRICS started, and since then, I think, clearly, they must be doing something right if so many countries want to join BRICS and so many countries actually have joined BRICS. So, we’ve had an expansion from the original four, South Africa joined and, you know, then it has become a double-digit membership, and Joburg in 23. And in 24, last year in Kazan, we also added dialogue partners, the concept of dialogue partners, so the group has grown. Yes, we do discuss economic issues. We’ll also discuss political issues. It’s not like we don’t. So, I wouldn’t straightjacket it, I won’t – it’s har – as I said, it’s hard to find a single adjective which would do BRICS justice.
Bronwen Maddox
Do you see a role for India in acting as an intermediary in any of these current conflicts? I’m thinking of the role that Saudi Arabia has taken on, in at least bringing the US and Russians together in Riyadh. India has been carefully – not committed itself on Ukraine, but do you see a role for India in this?
Dr S. Jaishankar
I am not sure, I’m not sure. I’ll only tell you what we have been doing so far. It would be hard for me to predict what could happen in the future. We have been one of the few countries who have been regularly talking to both Moscow and Kyiv, at various levels. My Prime Minister has been talking to President Putin and to President Zelenskyy. We have met with, you know, the Presidents, the Ministers, the National Security Advisors, the Defence Ministers. So – and at various points of time, if there was a moment or an occasion when our weighing in was useful, we have tried to tried to do that.
Mostly it has been very specific. For example, in the summer of 2022, the – at that time, you know, the Black Sea grain corridor was…
Bronwen Maddox
Yeah.
Dr S. Jaishankar
…sought to be constructed, and there were some hesitations in Russia. So, a few other countries approached us to – including Turkey, which was – which had the lead, to press the Russians on that, we did that. When the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant came under firing, we actually were approached by the Ukrainians to pass messages onto the Russians, which we did, and we – they had something to say, which we communicated back. We worked a little bit with Mr Grossi in IAEA on that.
So, wherever there’s been a sense that, okay, India can do something, somebody has come to us and said, “Would you be willing to do that?” we’ve always been openminded about it. To the extent we proffered advice, we have largely done that in the privacy of a room. We have spoken our mind to both countries, both leaders. Our view has been that they need to do direct negotiations, that’s been our consistent position. We have never advised them what should be the format and what should be the terms of the negotiations. That is their business, but if, you know – and I would say this, every time we’ve had a significant and useful conversation with either of them, we have taken the approval of President Putin to share this with the Ukrainians and President Zelenskyy to share it with the Russians. So, we have kept that going.
Bronwen Maddox
Hmmm.
Dr S. Jaishankar
But beyond that, as I said, you – we have never – it’s never been up – you know, we haven’t done a peace plan or, you know, put out a particular view. We don’t think that is appropriate.
Bronwen Maddox
Hmmm hmm.
Dr S. Jaishankar
You know, I think this is an issue where the parties involved have to decide for themselves, and we also understand the stakes that Europe has in this matter. We understand the interest that the United States has in this matter. We hear it from the Russians that they too feel that, you know, there are other parties to be engaged. So, I think we have done whatever was the right thing to do in the most helpful manner and will continue to do that.
Bronwen Maddox
Let’s come onto the relationship with the UK, and you saw the Prime Minister yesterday, I believe you’re going to Belfast and Manchester tomorrow.
Dr S. Jaishankar
Hmmm.
Bronwen Maddox
You’ve seen David Lammy today, is that right?
Dr S. Jaishankar
Yes, I saw him.
Bronwen Maddox
Yeah, lots of…
Dr S. Jaishankar
I was with him yesterday and…
Bronwen Maddox
With – as well, lots of David Lammy.
Dr S. Jaishankar
Yeah.
Bronwen Maddox
Alright, where does this stand? And I – let’s start with the free trade agreement. I was in – in fact, the last time I saw you in your office in Delhi 18 months ago, and there was a great buzz around was there going to be signing of the deal then? Would Rishi Sunak come over? Could he tuck in the cricket, as well? There was a whole fuss around it.
Dr S. Jaishankar
Hmmm hmm.
Bronwen Maddox
Then 18 months goes on, is it intellectual property on pharmaceuticals? Is it visas again? We don’t – where is this?
Dr S. Jaishankar
I think some progress has been made in the negotiations. I mean, first of all, let’s understand this is a negotiation, and negotiations – and it’s a serious negotiation, because when you do an FDA, you’re really locking in your country into a long-term arrangement with another partner. So, you don’t do that in a hurry, you don’t necessarily – you know, you don’t do that frivolously. So, there is a lot of homework, there are lot of forward projections made of what are the benefits and what are the costs? So, it’s a fairly complicated process, it’s not just like going to a shop and buying something.
Bronwen Maddox
Hmmm.
Dr S. Jaishankar
So, given the complexity, to me, it’s natural that it would take time.
Bronwen Maddox
We were discussing upstairs, though, how this can burn up decades of people’s…
Dr S. Jaishankar
Well…
Bronwen Maddox
…lives.
Dr S. Jaishankar
…I’m not sure I think it should take decades. I mean, with the EU, we are into our third decade. It’s not a experience I recommend to anybody else, but we would like to accelerate this. I got a clear message – I also met Secretary Reynolds, so I think from Prime Minister Starmer, from Foreign Secretary Lammy, from Secretary Reynolds, I could – I got a consistent message from all of them that the British side is also interested in moving it forward. We had a round last month, in February, in Delhi, when Secretary Reynolds was there, we remain in touch. You know, I had a few points to convey on behalf of my concerned colleagues, as well. So, I am cautiously optimistic that it will – you know, the pace will quicken. Hard to say when it would come to head, but I certainly, you know, would hope that it doesn’t take that long.
Bronwen Maddox
Hmmm, and in the broader relationship with the UK, how do you see that changing?
Dr S. Jaishankar
Well, look, if we actually do conclude the FDA, which I’m optimistic about, I think it’ll have not just a economic or a trade impact. I think it would have a larger relationship impact. I think people will see many more – they would be encouraged to explore a lot of other possibilities, and there are possibilities. I mean, I give you an example. We’ve had a British university actually open a campus in India. Now, that’s a big deal. It’s a big deal because when we have a few successful cases, these numbers would grow.
Now, we’ve allowed foreign universities, we’ve opened up the education sector to foreign universities fairly recently, and if you look at the numbers, I mean, we have today about a million plus, maybe a million and a quarter, Indian students studying abroad at any given time. There would be at least twice that number of people who would have been interested and had they had an opportunity, would have liked to explore that. And in addition to that, there would be many others if they saw the, you know, the – instead of them going out, they actually saw the universities coming to their homes, or close by, they might be interested, as well. So, I can think of the education sector as a completely, you know, new area which would open up.
Bronwen Maddox
Interesting.
Dr S. Jaishankar
So, when you have something momentous happen in a relationship, I think it’ll have a ripple impact on a whole lot of other sectors. I see that, you know, similarly, there’s – we are considering making some significant changes to our nuclear policy, including amending our liability legislation, and also contemplating the possibility of private sector operators in the nuclear field. Now, that too is an potential area of collaboration. I could give you a whole lot of areas. Now, I think many of these are waiting to happen, we need – you know, something like an FDA would provide that, sort of, tailwind, which would…
Bronwen Maddox
So…
Dr S. Jaishankar
…push.
Bronwen Maddox
…it would be quite wrong for me to ask you in detail everything the Prime Minister said, but nonetheless, what is the stumbling block at this point…
Dr S. Jaishankar
On..
Bronwen Maddox
…on the FDA?
Dr S. Jaishankar
There is no stumbling block. Look, if there are negotiations sector by sector, I mean, I – let me say this, I mean, pretty much everything I have read about the FDA in the press is inaccurate. So, people often claim…
Bronwen Maddox
So, visas are not a problem, and…
Dr S. Jaishankar
Well…
Bronwen Maddox
…pharmaceutical IP…
Dr S. Jaishankar
…no, no…
Bronwen Maddox
…is not a problem?
Dr S. Jaishankar
…it’s good you ask me that.
Bronwen Maddox
Yeah.
Dr S. Jaishankar
Visas are nothing to do with FDA. I mean, the only resource the FDA is concerned with are the visas for inter – intra-corporate transferees…
Bronwen Maddox
Yeah.
Dr S. Jaishankar
…which is business people going to take up jobs in their particular branch of…
Bronwen Maddox
Yeah.
Dr S. Jaishankar
…the same business. So, I saw these stories or these reports that somewhere there are visa demands. That’s not the case.
Bronwen Maddox
Hmmm.
Dr S. Jaishankar
And I could give you a whole lot of other inaccurate examples. So, look, it’s not that there is some big boulder out there which we need to get out of the way. I think these are painstaking negotiations and they are painstaking because, as I said, the – you know, these are serious commitments which are being made, which have economic consequences, which will affect the lives of people, in a way. So, I think there is a sense of responsibility with which negotiators go about that business.
Bronwen Maddox
Thanks very much indeed for that. Let me just ask you a couple of things, before we go to wider questions, so a couple of things about India itself. And I’m very struck by a whole line of discussion in the Indian media at the moment, summarised by the question, “Will India get old before it gets rich?” Not the country so much as its people, but the question of whether its growth is really managing to keep up with the ageing and size of the population.
Dr S. Jaishankar
You know, that’s not a question which is unique to India.
Bronwen Maddox
No, not at all.
Dr S. Jaishankar
I mean, people are asking – have been asking that question on China, they ask it about some other…
Bronwen Maddox
Well, they ask it…
Dr S. Jaishankar
…East Asian countries.
Bronwen Maddox
…about this one too, but yeah.
Dr S. Jaishankar
So, I think it’s a natural question to ask about any economy which is growing rapidly and where – which will – which is consequential for the rest of the world.
Bronwen Maddox
Hmmm.
Dr S. Jaishankar
My sense is the pace of progress in India – I mean, this is just me talking…
Bronwen Maddox
Yeah, yeah.
Dr S. Jaishankar
…will actually surprise people because we have – I mean, look at it today, we are roughly, I would say, about a $3,000 minus per capita economy, okay. Look, think back on the rest of the world when it was at that level, what is different for us is we have the access to technologies and practices and possibilities which others at that point did not have, for example, digital. So, there is a great possibility to leapfrog in terms of our development, and I think – I’m pretty sure that the growth of India will follow a pathway or a trajectory which would not be taken by any significant economy before us, simply because many of those possibilities did not exist for those economies at that time. So, I…
Bronwen Maddox
I press you on it because so much hope has been attached to India’s development, its trajectory, as you said, and yet there are a lot of questions about whether that can continue, or as you said, ‘leapfrog’.
Dr S. Jaishankar
No, I look – again, I don’t think any of us doubt that it would continue. I mean, we are fairly sanguine that we have multiple decades of growth, at let’s say, 7% ahead of us. But I mean, naturally, you know, with urbanisation, with prosperity, I mean, there are demographic consequences to that. I mean, that’s a universal rule. Why would we be an exception to that rule? But I think if you look at the numbers, I think there will be a demographic trajectory and there will be a prosperity trajectory. I am not sure that there is a grounds to be as alarmed as your observation would suggest.
Bronwen Maddox
Thank you. We might come back to that in questions. Let me just ask you one more, something that comes up in parts of the – certainly with the British media, with parts of the British government, about whether India is still a place where minorities feel that they can thrive. Is – the argument being, look, it’s great if you’re part of the Hindu majority, but a less – becoming a less comfortable place if you’re Muslim, Hindu – sorry, Muslim, Tamil, Sikh, whatever. Does – has that come up in your conversations with Britain, and what is your answer to it?
Dr S. Jaishankar
I’m a Tamil, I feel completely comfortable, and I think I can say that for the High Commissioner too, yeah. So, look, you know, there is a certain politics prevalent in some parts of the world, very, very driven by a, kind of, a votebank consideration, very driven by, you know, creating identity lobbies, actually pandering to them, stalking a certain attitude. And we don’t think actually that’s very healthy politics.
So, if the idea of good politics is good politics is all about how do I look after – cater to minority demands? I think, to me, good politics is actually about treating your citizens equally. And when I look at the last ten years and I see many of the big transformations underway, you know, let us say, housing entitlements, loan entitlements, business entitlements, I think as a polity, we’ve been very, very fair, and to me, that kind of tokenism is actually very destructive politics. So, I would actually dispute the idea that somewhere that’s a idea – you know, that’s an ideal to which we should all aspire. I think that is a model which we actually reject.
Bronwen Maddox
On that note, let’s go to wider questions. I don’t know if the question will come up again, but thank you. A forest of hands up here, immediately. Let me start at this far side, I’m going to take two at a time.
Dr S. Jaishankar
Hmmm hmm.
Bronwen Maddox
Please…
Sylvie Zhuang
I’m…
Bronwen Maddox
…and could you wait for a microphone to come, and please identify yourself, as well?
Sylvie Zhuang
My name is Sylvie. I’m a Journalist from South China Morning Post. So, my question is, will Modi come to attend the SCO conference in China this year? And, also, currently there’s no direct flights between China and India, it’s very difficult to get visa, and, also China and India are having very few Journalist on – in the ground in each other’s country, and how and when will those issues be resolved?
Bronwen Maddox
This is about direct travel, right? Do you want to answer that one…
Dr S. Jaishankar
Let…
Bronwen Maddox
…as a separate…?
Dr S. Jaishankar
Let me just sum up that question, you asked me on flights, on visas…
Sylvie Zhuang
Right.
Dr S. Jaishankar
…and…
Sylvie Zhuang
Journalist.
Member
[Inaudible – 34:46]…
Dr S. Jaishankar
…and Journalists?
Member
…with the issue.
Sylvie Zhuang
And also SCO.
Dr S. Jaishankar
And would I be there for the SCO?
Sylvie Zhuang
Or Modi…
Member
Prime Minister.
Sylvie Zhuang
…also you.
Member
Prime Minister.
Dr S. Jaishankar
Prime Minister Modi. Ah, okay, alright, got it.
Sylvie Zhuang
Thank you.
Dr S. Jaishankar
Okay, could I take one more…
Bronwen Maddox
Yes…
Dr S. Jaishankar
…or…?
Bronwen Maddox
…guy in the middle. Yeah, you.
Sachin Ravikumar
Thank you, Sachin Ravikumar with Reuters. In the context of Europe trying to boost its defence capabilities, would India’s defence industry have a role to play in bolstering those capabilities, and is this something you would be promoting in the coming weeks and months? And secondly, if I may, vis-à-vis trade with the US, would India be open to lowering imports on – sorry, lowering tariffs on car imports?
Bronwen Maddox
Thank you…
Sachin Ravikumar
Thank you.
Bronwen Maddox
…you snuck past my usual guard of saying, “Only one question,” but you got two in, which were defence and cars.
Dr S. Jaishankar
She got three in.
Bronwen Maddox
She – yeah.
Dr S. Jaishankar
So…
Bronwen Maddox
We’re going to go to a one…
Dr S. Jaishankar
…yeah…
Bronwen Maddox
…one question rule…
Dr S. Jaishankar
So…
Bronwen Maddox
…in a moment.
Dr S. Jaishankar
So, you know, the – on the first question, look, there was a certain context for why relations between India and China were disrupted, and the context was what China did along the Line of Actual Control in 2020 and the situation which continued after that. Now, in October 2024, we were able to resolve many of the urgent issues, the pending issues, pertaining to that, what we call “disengagement of troops who had been deployed upfront.” So, after that we – you know, there was a meeting between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi, in Kazan, and I myself have met Foreign Minister Wang Yi, our National Security Advisor and our Foreign Secretary have visited China. And we are discussing with China some steps to see how the relationship can go in a more predictable and stable and positive direction.
One of the steps, which you did not mention, so let me to your three questions add a fourth one, which was the resumption of pilgrimage to Mount Kailash, which is in Tibet, which Hindu pilgrims have been going to for ages. So, the resumption of pilgrimage, the direct flights between the two countries, the Journalist issues, all these are being discussed, but they are – there are some other issues, for example, we had a mechanism about transborder rivers, that mechanism had stopped to meet, because the relationship was very badly disrupted after 2020. So, we’re looking at this package, I mean, I think people tasked with that mandate are dealing with each other. Har – it’s hard, you know, obviously we would like to see it done sooner rather than later, and then we’ll see what happens after that.
On your question…
Bronwen Maddox
Can the Indian defence industry…
Dr S. Jaishankar
Yeah…
Bronwen Maddox
…profit from…
Dr S. Jaishankar
…yeah…
Bronwen Maddox
…Europe’s…
Dr S. Jaishankar
…you know…
Bronwen Maddox
…new need for defence?
Dr S. Jaishankar
…we have a substantial Indian state-owned defence industry, but also now a growing Indian private sector defence industry. They are global in their interests and aspirations. It’s – you know, even the state-owned ones, these are enterprises. They make the decisions depending on where there’s demand and, you know, what the market opportunities are. Normally we leave it to them to make the business, the corporate decisions, that they should, unless our national interest or our security interests are involved in some way. So, I think if some of them wish to, you know, look at demands in Europe, I think that is a business decision that they should be taking.
Bronwen Maddox
Hmmm hmm.
Dr S. Jaishankar
Now, on the issue of tariffs, as I said, we have a understanding that we would be negotiating a bilateral trade agreement with the United States, so that process would unfold. Our Trade Minister is there holding discussions right now, so one has to see where that goes.
Bronwen Maddox
Okay another forest of hands. Right, I’m going to take the woman on the aisle there.
Pal Gusha
My name’s [Pal Gusha – 39:52], and I wanted to ask about – you mentioned BRICS, and India’s role in BRICS. Do you see India’s role in the Middle East – because you spoke about Ukraine, well, what about the Middle East, in specific Gaza?
Bronwen Maddox
Okay, you thank you very much. Here in the front, Chietigj. I’m going to take three this time.
Dr Chietigj Bajpaee
Chietigj Bajpaee, Senior Research Fellow for South Asia at Chatham House. Many thanks for your very insightful remarks. I had a question about India’s neighbourhood. India resides in a region in which three countries are in the midst of IMF bailouts, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Two countries could be regarded as potentially near failed states, Myanmar and Afghanistan, and two countries with which India has a history of difficult relations, which also happened to be nuclear weapon states. And it also has active territorial disputes, of course, I’m referring to China and Pakistan. You also have a relatively low level rel – level of regional economic integration and institutional integration, at least compared to other regions, in terms of intraregional trade.
So, my question is, are – do developments in India’s neighbourhood, do they hold back or undermine India’s global aspirations, or to put it more bluntly, can India rise without its region? Thank you.
Bronwen Maddox
Thank you and I’m going to take one more, right here in the front.
David Lubin
Thank you very much. I’m David Lubin. I’m an economist here at Chatham House. I wonder if you could comment on India’s aspirations for the internationalisation of the rupee, or more generally, whether you and the Indian Government have a problem with dollar dominance in the international monetary system?
Bronwen Maddox
Great, thank you. We have the Middle East, Gaza, we have whether India can rise without its neighbourhood, without relations with its neighbourhood, and the internationalisation of the rupee.
Dr S. Jaishankar
On the Middle East, you know, obviously, we have significant interests, I mean, depending on how you define the Middle East. If you were to include the Gulf in it, we would have more than ten million Indians actually living there. The trade – our trade with the Gulf would be, today – our exports to the Gulf alone would be close to $100 billion. Our trade with the Mediterranean is close to 80 bill – $85 billion. The Mediterranean has almost half a million Indians living in the littoral states of the Mediterranean. So, if I were to – and if you – one looks at the footprint, the economic footprint I mean, whether it’s the Mediterranean countries, whether it’s the MENA countries, whether it’s the Gulf, I mean, there isn’t a country where there isn’t today some, kind of, significant Indian project, business, infrastructure activity.
So, yes, we would like to see a stable, you know, safe, prosperous Middle East, but we do understand. I mean, right now the situation is very complicated. Again, we have a position which is obviously, in my view, very objective and balanced. We do condemn terrorism and hostage taking, we do believe that countries have a right to respond to that, but we also believe that humanitarian law should be observed when undertaking operations. We do think there’s an urgent need to get relief and rehabilitation done in Gaza, and we belie – we strongly advocate for a two-state solution. So, we have a, I would say, a broad spectrum but consistent, and in our view, an objective position about it.
Again, if there is a – and Indian peacekeepers, by the way, are deployed today both in Lebanon and in Golan Heights. So, if there is some way or something we should be doing, we are open to looking at it. We have been engaging, you know, pretty much all the players, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf countries, on that. So – but our sense right now is really, it’s largely the countries in the region who have the initiative, and the United States. So, ob – you know, if there are countries who have that initiative and doing something, it’s good that they are doing something, so we – but our interests are that, you know, there’s some, kind of, lasting solution found to the crisis.
On your question, Chietigj, about the neighbourhood, you know, again, there are a lot of things happening on the ground. This may or may not fit into a theoretical construct. For example, if one looks at connectivity, and by connectivity, I’m talking here of roads or waterways, of electricity grid connections, of fuel supplies, of movement of people, in fact, the last ten years has seen an extraordinary pickup that – whether it’s Bangladesh, whether it’s Nepal, even Myanmar, that every one of these countries today in some form, compared to where they were five or ten years ago, are either importing or exporting more energy. Are trading more, are seeing a much greater flow of, you know, wagons, buses, people, you name it, much more goods transiting through countries or to countries. So, in many ways, actually, on the ground, the real economy is experiencing a very, very profound change.
Now, in terms of regionalisation, perhaps in a, sort of, a conceptual way, it may not be that visible, but then do bear in mind when Sri Lanka had a very serious financial crisis, while the rest of the world largely sat on its hands, we actually came forward with a package of more than $4 billion, which was almost twice the size of the IMF package. So – and if you go – rewind a bit, and go look even at the COVID, you know, between – that region, like any other region, has had a COVID crisis, it’s had a Ukraine crisis fallout. There have been issues coming out of the global economy, because it relates to your question about availability of dollar trade issues, liquidity crisis. We’ve actually stepped forward for pretty much every neighbouring country, you know, whether it was supply of vaccines, whether it was supply of food grains, whether it’s supply of fertilisers, supply of fuel, and as I said, in Sri Lanka, actually, a huge economic package.
So, we do see today a regional responsibility. We do believe that our neighbours must do well and that their prosperity and our prosperity are linked, and we think our own growth is a lift – could be a lifting tide, is a lifting tide for the rest of them. But while we are a larger economy, and by and large, we are generous and non-reciprocal, we have interests like any nation. So, we also expect our neighbours to recognise that, and to cater to our sensitivities, as well. So, I’m not saying that every – you know, it has to be an equal give and take, but there are gives and takes, and I think just like we have a responsibility to our neighbours, I think our neighbours also have a responsibility to us.
The last – the third…
Bronwen Maddox
The rupee…
Dr S. Jaishankar
…question, the rupee.
Bronwen Maddox
Internationalisation…
Dr S. Jaishankar
You know…
Bronwen Maddox
…of the rupee.
Dr S. Jaishankar
…we are clearly promoting the internationalisation of the rupee, for the very simple reason that we are actually promoting the globalisation of India. There are more Indians who travel out, there are more Indians who live abroad. India’s trade, India’s investments, India’s tourists, have all grown, so along with that, the practise of using rupee will also grow. So, in many cases, for example, we have established mechanisms for cashless payments between India and some other country. We have, in certain cases, supported trade settlements, but we have also supported trade settlements because there is a shortage of hard currency in many countries, especially of dollars. So, in a way, there is a steady, I would say, externalisation of rupee transactions that’s part of the globalisation of India.
But where the dollar, the role of the dollar, is concerned, I think, you know, we are very realistic about it. We have never had a problem with the dollar. Our relations with the Uni – US are probably at the best ever that they have been. So, we have absolutely no interest in undermining the dollar, at all. On the contrary, I think lot of the problems in our region is the lack of the availability of dollars. So, I would say many countries want to see more dollar, not less.
Bronwen Maddox
Thank you. Take a gentleman here on the aisle, yeah.
Nizar
My name is Nizar, I’m an Author and Journalist. Let me make you a little nervous Mr – Your Excellency. Thank you very much for your…
Bronwen Maddox
Okay, right.
Nizar
…dissertation – yeah. Kashmiris are up in arms because India is occupying Kashmir illegally. That’s the reason why they are protesting. Now given…
Dr S. Jaishankar
Is there a question?
Nizar
…given…
Bronwen Maddox
I don’t think…
Nizar
…the Donald – given Mr Trump’s zeal for striking peace and peace deal, can Narendra Modi use his friendship with Donald Trump to sort out the problem of Kashmir? There are one million Soldiers stationed in Kashmir to control seven million Kashmiris, so what are you going to do about the Kashmir problem? You haven’t…
Bronwen Maddox
Okay, can we…
Nizar
…spoken about…
Bronwen Maddox
…just…
Nizar
…anything…
Bronwen Maddox
…capture the question there? Thank you, and there was a similar one from Naomi Canton of the Times of India, pegged to the debate in the UK Parliament today mentioning Kashmir. Alright, Kashmir, what are you going to do to solve it? Woman on the aisle here, in black and white, I think.
Virika
Thank you, I’m Virika, and I am a student at King’s College London, studying international relations. So, my question is that when we talk about Global South aspirations, and at the same time, we talk about India and China’s rivalry, so sometimes, because of this rivalry, the Global South aspirations are somehow diluted, do you think this rivalry can, sort of, reduce the impact of the Global South in the larger context? And what measures can Indian foreign policy and the decisionmakers take to make sure this does not happen?
Bronwen Maddox
Thank you very much, indeed, and let me add one from online. Ishaan Devalla, “Do you see an opportunity for better relations with China in a multipolar world?” which relates to that last one. Everyone online, you’re asking terrific questions, but they’re really long, they look a bit like essays, but really good points. That was a nice short one. We have Kashmir, what are you going to do to solve it? We have are Global South losing impact or not, diluted impact or not? And we have ‘détente’, the word used with China.
Dr S. Jaishankar
Oh, okay. Look, on Kashmir, actually, we have done, I think, a good job solving most of it. I think removing Article 370 was one – step number one, then restoring growth and economic activity and social justice in Kashmir was step number two. Holding elections, which were done with a very high turnout was step number three. I think the part we are waiting for is the return of the stolen part of Kashmir, which is on the – under illegal Pakistani occupation. When that’s done, I assure you, Kashmir, solved [applause].
The second question, Global South. You know, look, there are different ways of looking at it, and I give you a perspective. What do countries in Global South largely want? They want more options, they want more experiences to compare, relatable experiences. They would like to get into relationships which actually help them build a society on a sustainable basis. So, forget India-China for a moment. I think what has – what is happening and – is that much of the Global South in the previous decades had very limited options. You know, they either had Western options, they had multilateral development banks, which were, in a way, associated with it, within the Western options, they had maybe some subsets out there. Then over a – at some point, they has Soviet/Russian options, then you had a set of China options.
Now, today, if there are Indian options, I would argue that actually it’s better for the Global South, it’s not worse, because they now have many more possibilities to choose from. They will be in a position to evaluate which of these options and which of these relationships somewhere fit into their growth aspirations. And I can certainly say, you know, where India is concerned, we have today, projects in almost 80 countries of the Global South. We have delivered actually about 600 significant projects in the last many years. And I do think that by doing so – I mean, obviously, the partner country has benefited, but it also strengthens the hands of the partner country in dealing with other relationships. So, I would not put this negatively at all. In fact, just like I say for India’s positioning, a multipolar world is helpful, I think for Global South, as well, I think a multipolar world is helpful, and it actually increases their negotiating ability.
The last question, you know, what, kind of…
Bronwen Maddox
China.
Dr S. Jaishankar
…relationship…
Bronwen Maddox
Yeah.
Dr S. Jaishankar
…we want with China. You know, look, we actually have by any standards a very, very unique relationship. I mean, first of all we are the only two billion plus populated countries in the world. We have both of us a very long history. We’ve had the ups and downs in our history. You have today both countries on a upward trajectory, and here’s the challenge – and it so happens we are actually direct neighbours. So, the challenge is this, that when any country rises, its balances with the world and with its neighbours obviously change. Now, when two countries of this size, this history, this complexity, this consequence, rise, broadly in parallel, and obviously, they have a interplay with each other, I think the issue is, how do you create stable equilibriums and then, you know, transition into the next set of equilibriums, or next phase of equilibriums?
And we want, you know, a stable relationship, but we want a relationship where our interests are respected, where our sensitivities are recognised, where it works for both of us. So, I think that is really the – been the challenge in the relationship. And obviously, you know, for us, because of the border, for us, the management of the border, the assumption for the last 40 years has been that there must be peace and tranquilly in the border areas if the relationship is to grow. If the border is unstable or is not peaceful or is not tranquil, obviously it will have consequences on the growth and direction of the relationship.
Bronwen Maddox
Okay. Let’s just squeeze in a few. More hands than ever, alright. I’m going to take the gentleman right in the middle, who’s been very patient.
Anees Nasir
Anees Nasir, retired Banker. Dr Jaishankar, one huge question for you, a lot of talk has been emanating from BRICS group to replace dollar and have its own payment system. Do you think, in the view of fast changing demographic in respect of politics and economics, is this likely to happen in the next five/ten years?
Bronwen Maddox
Thank you very much. I’m going to go to Ashish Goyal right on the aisle here. If – Ashish, if you can wait for a microphone to come to you, which is coming now. Have you got it? Brilliant, thank you.
Ashish Goyal
Thank you. Thank you, Dr Jaishankar, for your thoughts. I’m going to – I’m Ashish Goyal, I’m a Global Macro Investor, and I’m going to continue on this dollar theme actually. Because you spoke about the idea of multipolarity being a good thing, and that’s where we are headed towards, so why not multipolarity of the dollar, as in the sense currencies across the world, payment systems across the world? And this, just one perspective is that if the US did not have the dollar reserve status, by now you would have trashed the currency, because look at the fiscal deficit, look at their external deficit, all that. So, I understand that that’s been the stable guiding force for the last eight years, but I think, going forward, India needs to prepare itself for a multipolar world, even in the dollar settlement system or the currency system in the world. So, would love to hear your thoughts on that. Thank you.
Bronwen Maddox
Okay, there’s those two, and then I’m going to just take a different tack, because there really are quite a lot online about human rights. I’m going to – so, from –Hammad Sarfraz, saying – and he’s speaking for many here online, “India has positioned itself as the world’s largest democracy, but concerns about its human rights record have been growing.” The statement, “How does India plan to address this issue? Does it acknowledge any shortcomings?” And there are various others in that line, Shahid Ahmed, as well, there is a cluster. So, we have dollar and we have human rights.
Dr S. Jaishankar
I could take a few more.
Bronwen Maddox
Hmmm?
Dr S. Jaishankar
I could take a few more…
Bronwen Maddox
Okay.
Dr S. Jaishankar
…because my answers will be pretty short on both.
Bronwen Maddox
You don’t know what I might then say. I’m – I will take this gentleman on the aisle, then.
Bhanu Pranav
Hello, I’m Bhanu Pranav and I’m studying theoretical physics in King’s College London. So, my question is in that direction, in education and especially in the pure sciences. I’ve always aspired to be back home but receive international level education, so what are your thoughts on us reaching out into the world more accessibly and India becoming a centre for global level research, especially in the pure sciences?
Bronwen Maddox
Okay, let’s take…
Dr S. Jaishankar
One more?
Bronwen Maddox
No, because we need to stop at seven.
Dr S. Jaishankar
Okay, oh…
Bronwen Maddox
Thank you for your generosity…
Dr S. Jaishankar
Okay.
Bronwen Maddox
…but we actually – we’re actually in respect of the…
